Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Coritiba3Bahia2

HT 0–1Mon 25 May 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 13–14On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 07:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Bahia's seven-match winless run, fan unrest, and Juba's injury clash with Coritiba's solid home form and full preparation.

The best value is the first-half draw at 2.15 (60% estimate vs. 47% implied), with under 2.5 goals also offering a small edge. Steer clear of match winner bets—neither side is priced attractively.

Context

Bahia's last win was on 18 March; since then they have 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses.
- Fan protests targeted Ceni before, during, and after the 1-1 home draw with Grêmio on 17 May.
- The run included a Copa do Brasil exit, adding to the negative mood.
Juba suffered a rectus femoris injury against Grêmio and is out until after the World Cup break.
- He has been a regular starter, contributing to Bahia's away corner count (6.1 per game).
- Replacement Borduchi has less attacking output, which may reduce Bahia's threat from the left.
Gómez is the holding midfielder and captain, key to Coritiba's defensive structure.
- Coritiba declined Colombia's request on 20 May, ensuring he plays this match.
- The team also had a full training week after a 3-0 away win at Santos, boosting preparation.
Bahia won 4-2, 3-1, 2-1, and 1-0 in the last four encounters, scoring 10 goals.
- Coritiba's last win over Bahia was in December 2014.
- However, Bahia's current seven-match winless run and Coritiba's solid home form (2W-3D-2L) suggest the H2H trend may not hold.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's solid home form and Bahia's poor recent run (7 without a win) make a home win or draw likely, despite Bahia's historical H2H dominance.
- Coritiba home record: 2W-3D-2L, only 2 losses in 7 home games this season.
- Bahia away record: 4W-1D-2L, but winless in last 7 overall (0W-3D-4L across all comps).
- H2H: Bahia unbeaten in last 6 meetings, but Coritiba have home advantage and a full training week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCoritiba or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With Bahia struggling for wins and Coritiba resilient at home, the double chance on the home side offers value.
- Coritiba have lost only 2 of 7 home games this season.
- Bahia have not won in their last 7 matches (all competitions).
- Coritiba kept captain Gomez, boosting midfield stability.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCoritiba or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for slow starts, and the stats support a level score at the break.
- Coritiba led at halftime in only 2 of 7 home games.
- Bahia trailed at halftime in 3 of 7 away games.
- Coritiba's home first-half record: 2W-3D-2L.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's stronger second-half performances at home, combined with Bahia's late-game struggles, give the hosts a slight edge after the break.
- Coritiba have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home games.
- Bahia have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- Coritiba's home second-half goal difference: +3 (5 scored, 2 conceded).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCoritibaEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's low-scoring home trend and Bahia's attacking struggles without Juba point to a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Coritiba home games average 1.86 total goals (7 goals for, 6 against in 7 matches).
- Bahia away games average 2.71 total goals, but recent form shows scoring difficulties (only 4 goals in last 5 away games).
- Coritiba's last 5 home games: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive solidity in patches, and with Bahia's key attacker Juba out, a clean sheet for one side is plausible.
- Coritiba kept clean sheets in 2 of last 5 home games.
- Bahia failed to score in 2 of last 5 away games.
- Coritiba's home goals conceded average is 0.86 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Coritiba at home, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Coritiba first-half goals at home: 0.57 per game (4 in 7).
- Bahia first-half goals away: 0.57 per game (4 in 7).
- Coritiba's last 5 home games: 4 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
As the game opens up, both teams may find more space, leading to a higher-scoring second half.
- Coritiba score 53% of their home goals in the second half.
- Bahia concede 60% of their away goals in the second half.
- Recent H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's high corner count on the road and Coritiba's tendency to concede corners at home suggest a high total corner count.
- Coritiba home games average 9.4 total corners (3.3 for, 6.1 against).
- Bahia away games average 11.4 total corners (6.1 for, 5.3 against).
- Bahia's last 5 away games: all had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's low corner output at home, even against teams that concede corners, makes the under on home corners likely.
- Coritiba average only 3.3 corners per home game.
- Coritiba have earned under 4.5 corners in 5 of their last 7 home games.
- Bahia concede an average of 5.3 corners away, but Coritiba's attacking style yields few corners.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonCoritiba under 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's consistent corner-winning ability on the road, matched with Coritiba's high concession rate, points to a high away corner count.
- Bahia average 6.1 corners per away game.
- Coritiba concede 6.1 corners per home game.
- Bahia have earned over 5.5 corners in 4 of their last 5 away games.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonBahia over 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this mid-table clash, combined with both teams' disciplinary records, could lead to a card-heavy game.
- Coritiba home games average 4.1 yellow cards (2.1 for, 2.0 against).
- Bahia away games average 4.7 yellow cards (2.2 for, 2.5 against).
- Recent H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings had over 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L2-4CoritibavBahiaSep 14, 2023SA

L3-1BahiavCoritibaMay 7, 2023SA

L1-2CoritibavBahiaNov 16, 2020SA

L1-0BahiavCoritibaAug 12, 2020SA

D1-1BahiavCoritibaSep 30, 2017SA

Bahia unbeaten in 5 meetings3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Coritiba Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	16	6	5	5	21-19	23	WDLLW
8	Bahia Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	15	6	5	4	21-19	23	DLDDL

Recent Form

Coritiba

W3-0SantosMay 17SA

L0-2SantosMay 13COP

D2-2InternacionalMay 9SA

L1-4VitoriaMay 2SA

L0-1GremioApr 26SA

D0-0SantosApr 22COP

W2-0Atletico-MGApr 19SA

D2-2BotafogoApr 12SA

D1-1FluminenseApr 4SA

D1-1Vasco DA GamaApr 1SA

L0-2Atletico ParanaenseMar 22SA

W1-0MirassolMar 18SA

W1-0RemoMar 15SA

W2-0CorinthiansMar 12SA

L0-1Sao PauloFeb 25SA

Bahia

D1-1GremioMay 17SA

L1-2RemoMay 14COP

L1-2CruzeiroMay 10SA

D2-2Sao PauloMay 3SA

D2-2SantosApr 25SA

L1-3RemoApr 22COP

L0-2FlamengoApr 19SA

W2-1MirassolApr 11SA

L1-2PalmeirasApr 5SA

W3-0Atletico ParanaenseApr 1SA

L1-4RemoMar 22SA

W2-0RB BragantinoMar 18SA

W1-0InternacionalMar 15SA

D1-1VitoriaMar 11SA

W2-1VitoriaMar 7BAI

Squad & Injuries

Coritiba

46 available

Attackers10

Midfielders18

Defenders12

Goalkeeper6

Bahia

46 available

Attackers14

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Over 9.5

Bahia over 5.5

Coritiba or Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Coritiba

Bahia

Squad & Injuries

Coritiba

Bahia