Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Fluminense RJ2Remo PA1

HT 0–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 76%–24%ShotsShots 13–2On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 4–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 11:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Fluminense are strong favourites at home, but the odds offer no value on the outright win.

The best betting edges are Both Teams to Score at 2.00 (+8 points) and Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.30 (+11 points). Avoid the short-priced home win and first-half goals markets.

Context

Fluminense home record: 8W 3D 1L in 12 matches.
- Last five home matches: W, D, L, D, D (including cup and Libertadores).
- They have failed to score in two of their last three home games.
Remo away record: 2W 2D 7L in 11 matches.
- Remo away goals conceded average: 2.09 per game.
- Remo away clean sheet rate: 1/11 (9%).
Fluminense played Independiente Rivadavia in Libertadores on 11 August.
- They played Vasco da Gama in Copa do Brasil on 6 August.
- The match against Remo is on 22 August, giving them 11 days rest, which may mitigate fatigue.
Remo away scoring rate: 8/11 (73%).
- Remo away goals for average: 1.0 per game.
- They scored in their last away match against Mirassol (1-2 loss).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fluminense RJ

1.39fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

Fluminense's strong home record and Remo's poor away form support a home win, but the odds already price in a 72% chance, leaving no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fluminense RJ or Draw

1.07fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 93%

−5.0ppshort

Fluminense's near-perfect home record and Remo's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Remo's leaky away defense (2.09 goals conceded per away game) and Fluminense's solid home attack push the total over 2.5.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with Remo's away first-half defense particularly vulnerable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's strong home form and Remo's poor away record, combined with the H2H win, make a home victory highly likely.
- Fluminense home record: 8W 3D 1L in 12 matches (75% unbeaten)
- Remo away record: 2W 2D 7L in 11 matches (18% win rate)
- Fluminense rank 4th with 38 pts vs Remo 18th with 22 pts
- H2H: Fluminense won reverse fixture 2-0 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFluminense RJEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's near-perfect home record and Remo's away struggles strongly support a home win or draw.
- Fluminense home unbeaten rate: 11/12 (92%)
- Remo away win rate: 18%
- Fluminense overall form: WDDDD (unbeaten in last 5)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFluminense RJ or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fluminense often leads at home by halftime, but the probability is tempered by Remo's occasional resilience.
- Fluminense home leading at half time: 4/12 (33%)
- Remo away trailing at half time: 5/11 (45%)
- Fluminense home first half goal difference: +0.33
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFluminense RJEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's home dominance and Remo's away struggles make a home HT/FT double plausible.
- Fluminense home win rate: 67%
- Fluminense home leading at HT and winning FT: 3/12 (25%)
- Remo away losing at HT and FT: 5/11 (45%)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFluminense RJ/Fluminense RJEstimated chance45%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Remo's leaky away defense (2.09 goals conceded per away game) and Fluminense's solid home attack push the total over 2.5.
- Fluminense home avg goals for: 1.75, against: 1.08
- Remo away avg goals for: 1.0, against: 2.09
- Combined avg total goals in Fluminense home games: 2.83
- Remo away games over 2.5: 7/11 (64%)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring rates in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Fluminense home clean sheet rate: 4/12 (33%)
- Remo away scoring rate: 8/11 (73%)
- Remo away clean sheet rate: 1/11 (9%)
- Fluminense home scoring rate: 11/12 (92%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fluminense's home clean sheet rate is moderate, but Remo's away scoring consistency reduces the likelihood.
- Fluminense home clean sheets: 4/12 (33%)
- Remo away failed to score: 3/11 (27%)
- Fluminense overall clean sheet rate: 5/23 (22%)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRemo PA not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with Remo's away first-half defense particularly vulnerable.
- Fluminense home first half goals for avg: 0.75
- Remo away first half goals against avg: 1.18
- Fluminense home first half goals against avg: 0.42
- Remo away first half goals for avg: 0.55
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to see more goals as Fluminense pushes at home and Remo tires, with combined averages near 2.
- Fluminense home second half goals for avg: 1.0
- Remo away second half goals against avg: 0.91
- Combined second half avg total: 1.91
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are near the line, with Remo's away games often producing high totals due to their defensive posture.
- Fluminense home avg corners for: 5.2, against: 3.8
- Remo away avg corners for: 4.0, against: 7.2
- Combined avg corners in Fluminense home games: 9.0
- Remo away games over 9.5 corners: 6/11 (55%)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card totals are borderline, with both teams averaging around 2 cards each, but the line is close to the average.
- Fluminense home avg yellow cards: 2.5
- Remo away avg yellow cards: 1.5
- Combined avg cards in Fluminense home games: 4.0
- Referee data unavailable
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Fluminense RJ has been moderately reliable on Over 4.5 cards

Fluminense RJ has fulfilled 4 of 7 Over 4.5 cards predictions, with an average estimated probability of 56.4% and an expected 4 fulfilled predictions. The matched predictions had a slightly higher average probability (57.5%) than missed ones (55%), and the current prediction of 50% is below the historical range of 52-60%. At home, they fulfilled 2 of 3 such predictions, while away they fulfilled 2 of 4.

Recent evidence for Fluminense RJ7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A