Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Goias0Gremio Novorizontino SP4

HT 0–1Wed 10 Jun 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 22–14On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jun 2026, 08:57 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring G6-chase match is expected, with Goias' strong home defense and the H2H trend of 1-0 home wins pointing to under 2.5 goals and a possible home clean sheet.

The best value bets are first-half under 0.5 goals (edge +16.5pts) and over 4.5 cards (edge +18.3pts), while the match winner market offers no edge.

Context

Goias home record in Serie B: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- They kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 home matches, including a 1-0 win over Botafogo SP and a 1-0 win over Criciuma.
- The only home defeat was a 2-0 loss to Cuiaba, but they have since won three straight at home without conceding.
Novorizontino away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded.
- They have drawn 0-0 at Cuiaba and 1-1 at São Bernardo in their last two away matches.
- Their only away win was a 3-0 victory at America Mineiro, but they have failed to score in two of six away games.
H2H results: Goias 1-0 Novorizontino (Nov 2025), Novorizontino 1-0 Goias (Jul 2025), Goias 1-0 Novorizontino (Nov 2024), Novorizontino 2-1 Goias (Aug 2024).
- All four matches were won by the home side, with three of the four finishing 1-0.
- Goias have never lost at home to Novorizontino, keeping clean sheets in both encounters.
The 2026 Serie B format sends the top two up automatically, while 3rd-6th enter a playoff for the last two promotion spots.
- Goias were 8th with 17 points after 11 rounds, just outside the playoff band, per their official site.
- Novorizontino described their recent win over Ceara as putting them back in the access playoff zone, showing they are focused on the G6 chase.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Strong home form and a perfect H2H pattern of home wins give Goias a clear edge, though Novorizontino's resilience on the road keeps it from being a high-confidence call.
- Goias home record this season: 4W-0D-1L, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 5 matches.
- H2H last 4 meetings: home team won all 4, with Goias winning both home fixtures 1-0.
- Novorizontino away record: 1W-4D-1L, 7 scored, 5 conceded in 6 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGoiasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Goias' strong home record and Novorizontino's draw-heavy away form make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by the H2H home dominance.
- Goias have lost only 1 of 5 home league games this season.
- Novorizontino have drawn 4 of 6 away games, losing only once.
- H2H: no draws in 4 meetings, but all wins by home side; Goias are at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGoias or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half passivity, especially Goias' inability to lead at home, points to a high chance of a draw at the interval.
- Goias home: drawn at HT in 4 of 5 league games, never led at HT.
- Novorizontino away: drawn at HT in 4 of 6, led once, trailed once.
- H2H: 3 of 4 meetings were level at HT (all 0-0).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of Goias grinding out wins after a level first half is present but not dominant enough for high confidence, making it a speculative low-confidence pick.
- Goias home: 3 of 5 wins came after a drawn first half.
- Novorizontino away: 1 of 1 loss came after a drawn first half.
- H2H: 2 of Goias' 3 home wins vs Novorizontino were 0-0 at HT, 1-0 FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/GoiasEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and the historically tight H2H scorelines strongly point to a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals a high-probability outcome.
- Goias home league matches: 4 of 5 under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.8 total goals.
- Novorizontino away league matches: 5 of 6 under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.0 total goals.
- H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings ended 1-0, all under 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Goias' defensive solidity at home and Novorizontino's modest away scoring, combined with H2H trends, suggest at least one side will fail to score.
- Goias home: clean sheets in 3 of 5 league games, conceding only 3 goals total.
- Novorizontino away: failed to score in 2 of 6, and scored exactly 1 in 3 others.
- H2H: both teams scored in only 1 of 4 meetings (the 2-1 in 2024).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Goias' strong home defensive record and Novorizontino's struggles to score in this fixture make a home clean sheet a solid medium-confidence pick.
- Goias kept clean sheets in 3 of 5 home league games this season.
- Novorizontino failed to score in 2 of 6 away games, and were shut out in both H2H visits to Goias.
- Goias average only 0.6 goals conceded per home game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGremio Novorizontino SP not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Goias' consistent but modest home scoring and Novorizontino's tight away defense make it likely the hosts net no more than once.
- Goias scored exactly 1 goal in 4 of 5 home league games, never more than 2.
- Novorizontino conceded 1 or fewer in 5 of 6 away games.
- H2H: Goias scored exactly 1 goal in all 3 home meetings vs Novorizontino.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGoias under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Goias at home, and the H2H pattern of goalless first halves supports a low-scoring opening period.
- Goias home first-half record: 0 first-half goals in 4 of 5 league games, 0.2 avg scored, 0.2 conceded.
- Novorizontino away first-half: 0.33 avg scored, 0.5 conceded; 3 of 6 away games 0-0 at HT.
- H2H: 3 of 4 meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring patterns and the H2H history show a strong tendency for goals to arrive after the break, making over 0.5 second-half goals likely.
- Goias home: 4 of 5 league games had second-half goals, with 80% of their home goals coming after HT.
- Novorizontino away: 5 of 6 games had second-half goals, with 71% of away goals after HT.
- H2H: all 4 meetings had second-half goals, with 3 of 4 decided by a single second-half strike.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages in their respective home/away splits sit below 10, and Goias' recent home matches show modest corner counts, supporting an under.
- Goias home league games average 7.8 total corners (4.2 for, 3.6 against).
- Novorizontino away league games average 8.0 total corners (5.1 for, 2.9 against).
- H2H: corner data unavailable for most meetings, but recent Goias home games trend low (4, 4, 6, 3 corners for).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Consistent card accumulation from both sides, especially in a competitive G6-chase match, makes over 4.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- Goias home league games average 5.4 total cards (2.8 for, 2.6 against).
- Novorizontino away league games average 5.2 total cards (2.4 for, 2.8 against).
- Both teams average over 2.5 yellow cards per game overall, with Goias seeing 3+ in 3 of last 5 home games.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 2W

W1-0GoiasvNovorizontinoNov 16, 2025SER

L1-0NovorizontinovGoiasJul 23, 2025SER

W1-0GoiasvNovorizontinoNov 24, 2024SER

L2-1NovorizontinovGoiasAug 4, 2024SER

Goias: 2 clean sheets1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Goias	11	5	2	4	12-13	17	DWWWL
9	Gremio Novorizontino SP	11	4	5	2	14-11	17	DWDWD

Recent Form

Goias

D1-1Atletico GoianienseMay 30SER

W2-0AvaiMay 24SER

W1-0Botafogo SPMay 16SER

L0-1CruzeiroMay 13COP

W1-0Vila NovaMay 9SER

L1-4Fortaleza ECMay 2SER

L0-1São BernardoApr 26SER

D2-2CruzeiroApr 22COP

L0-2CuiabaApr 19SER

L0-2JuventudeApr 11SER

W1-0CriciumaApr 7SER

D2-2LondrinaApr 1SER

W3-1America MineiroMar 22SER

W1-0MaringáMar 19COP

D0-0Atletico GoianienseMar 15GOI

Gremio Novorizontino SP

D1-1São BernardoMay 31SER

D2-2Chapecoense-scMay 27COP

W2-1CearaMay 23SER

L0-2Chapecoense-scMay 20COP

D0-0CuiabaMay 16SER

W1-0Botafogo SPMay 10SER

W2-1Volta RedondaMay 7COP

D3-3AvaiMay 3SER

L1-2AvaiApr 30COP

L0-1Sport RecifeApr 25SER

W2-1Athletic ClubApr 19SER

D1-1Operario-PRApr 15COP

W3-0America MineiroApr 12SER

W1-0São BernardoApr 9COP

D1-1CRBApr 5SER

Squad & Injuries

Goias

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Gremio Novorizontino SP

55 available

Attackers15

Midfielders20

Defenders13

Goalkeeper7

Goias0Gremio Novorizontino SP4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Goias or Draw

No

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Over 9.5

Under 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Goias

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Squad & Injuries

Goias

Gremio Novorizontino SP