Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Londrina2Athletic Club MG0

HT 0–0Sat 20 Jun 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Jun 2026, 23:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Londrina are winless at home and in relegation form, while Athletic are unbeaten in 5 and well-structured under Alex.

The double chance on Draw or Athletic Club MG is the top value bet with an 11-point edge, and the under 1.5 first-half goals is a high-confidence play. Expect a tight, low-scoring match with a strong chance of cards.

Context

8 points after 12 rounds is one of Londrina's worst starts in the last 10 years, per a 9 June ge report.
- Londrina have lost 6 of their last 7 league matches, with only 1 win in that span.
- New coach Micale was appointed on 8 May, but the team has not shown a clear improvement in results.
Athletic's last 5 matches: D-D-W-W-D, with only 4 goals conceded.
- Away record this season: 2W-3D-1L, with the only loss coming against Novorizontino.
- After the 1-1 draw at Sport, Alex emphasized the team's execution of the away plan and reliance on structure over depth.
A 2 June ge report confirmed Luccas participated in Athletic's last 6 goals.
- The role change came after Tavares' season-ending injury, forcing Alex to find new attacking solutions.
- Luccas' influence has been key in Athletic's recent unbeaten run, providing goals and assists.
Home record: 0W-2D-3L, 4 goals scored, 8 conceded in 5 matches.
- Londrina have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 home games.
- They average only 0.8 goals per home game, the worst in the league.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Londrina are winless at home and in relegation form, while Athletic are unbeaten in 5 and have a clear tactical plan under Alex, giving them a structural edge despite being away.
- Londrina home record: 0W-2D-3L, 4 goals scored, 8 conceded in 5 home matches this season
- Athletic away record: 2W-3D-1L, 9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 6 away matches
- Londrina last 5 matches: L-L-L-W-L, 1 win, 4 losses, 5 goals scored, 9 conceded
- Athletic last 5 matches: D-D-W-W-D, 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 goals scored, 4 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAthletic Club MGEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's inability to win at home combined with Athletic's strong away resilience makes a home win unlikely; the visitors are well-drilled and hard to beat.
- Londrina home winless this season: 0 wins in 5 home games
- Athletic away losses: only 1 in 6 away matches
- H2H last 3 meetings: Athletic won 2, Londrina won 1, all decided by 1 goal
- Londrina form: 1 win in last 10 league matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Athletic Club MGEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing low first-half scoring and a tendency for level scores at the break, a draw at half-time is the most probable outcome.
- Londrina half-time results: 3 draws in last 5 home matches
- Athletic half-time results: 3 draws in last 5 away matches
- Londrina first-half goals: 0.2 per home game
- Athletic first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per away game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Athletic's structured approach and superior form could see them edge the second half as Londrina's defensive frailties and low confidence become more exposed.
- Athletic second-half performance: scored in 4 of last 5 away matches after half-time
- Londrina second-half goals conceded: 1.2 per home game
- Athletic have a clear tactical plan and attacking focal point in Ian Luccas
- Londrina's fitness and morale may dip under relegation pressure
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableAthletic Club MGEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Athletic win is a plausible scenario given Londrina's slow starts and Athletic's ability to finish stronger.
- Londrina home half-time draws: 3 of 5
- Athletic away half-time draws: 3 of 6
- Athletic second-half strength: scored in 4 of last 5 away second halves
- Londrina lost 3 of 5 home matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Athletic Club MGEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring output, and Londrina's home attack is particularly blunt; the tactical matchup suggests a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Londrina home goals per game: 0.8 (4 in 5), conceded 1.6 per game
- Athletic away goals per game: 1.5 (9 in 6), conceded 1.33 per game
- Londrina last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
- Athletic last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home scoring struggles are severe, but Athletic's away defense isn't watertight; still, the hosts' attacking woes tilt the balance toward at least one side failing to score.
- Londrina failed to score in 3 of last 5 home matches
- Athletic kept 1 clean sheet in last 5 away matches
- Londrina scored in 2 of 5 home games this season
- Athletic conceded in 5 of 6 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, especially Londrina who rarely score before the break; the first half is likely to be cagey with few goals.
- Londrina first-half goals per game: 0.3 overall, 0.2 at home (1 in 5 home games)
- Athletic first-half goals per game: 0.6 overall, 0.5 away (3 in 6 away games)
- Londrina trailing at half-time in 47% of matches, leading only 20%
- Athletic leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing only 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home matches tend to produce high corner counts, and even with Athletic's lower numbers, the hosts' style should push the total over the line.
- Londrina average corners per home game: 6.6 (33 in 5)
- Athletic average corners per away game: 3.3 (20 in 6)
- Combined average corners in Londrina home games: 11.4 per match
- Londrina's last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent disciplinary records, and the high-stakes nature for Londrina could lead to a feisty contest with multiple cards.
- Londrina average yellow cards per home game: 2.6 (13 in 5)
- Athletic average yellow cards per away game: 2.5 (15 in 6)
- Combined average cards in Londrina home games: 5.2 per match
- Londrina's last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 3W

L2-1Athletic ClubvLondrinaOct 5, 2024SER

L2-3LondrinavAthletic ClubSep 2, 2024SER

L2-1Athletic ClubvLondrinaJul 13, 2024SER

Athletic Club MG unbeaten in 3 meetings3.7 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Londrina Relegation	12	2	2	8	12-20	8	LLLWL
11	Athletic Club MG	13	4	7	2	15-13	19	DDWWD

11pt gap between teamsLondrina in relegation zone

Recent Form

Londrina

L0-1CriciumaJun 6SER

L0-1Vila NovaMay 31SER

L0-3Fortaleza ECMay 23SER

W4-1Ponte PretaMay 18SER

L1-3São BernardoMay 12SER

L0-3Operario-PRMay 3SER

L0-1JuventudeApr 26SER

D0-0CearaApr 19SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseApr 12SER

L1-2Sport RecifeApr 4SER

D2-2GoiasApr 1SER

W3-1NovorizontinoMar 22SER

L0-1Operario-PRMar 18COP

D0-0Operario-PRFeb 28PAR

W1-0PenedenseFeb 25COP

Athletic Club MG

D1-1GoiasJun 14SER

D1-1Sport RecifeJun 11SER

W1-0Fortaleza ECMay 30SER

W2-1Botafogo SPMay 25SER

D1-1JuventudeMay 17SER

L2-3InternacionalMay 12COP

D0-0CuiabaMay 9SER

D1-1Vila NovaMay 4SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeApr 27SER

L1-2InternacionalApr 22COP

L1-2NovorizontinoApr 19SER

W3-2CRBApr 12SER

D1-1America MineiroApr 5SER

D1-1CriciumaApr 2SER

W2-1Ponte PretaMar 22SER

Squad & Injuries

Londrina

37 available

Attackers12

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Athletic Club MG

42 available

Attackers13

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Londrina2Athletic Club MG0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Athletic Club MG

Athletic Club MG

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

Over 4.5

Over 9.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 3.5

Over 11.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Londrina

Athletic Club MG

Squad & Injuries

Londrina

Athletic Club MG