Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

CRB AL2Sao Bernardo FC SP3

HT 1–1Sun 7 Jun 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 32–10On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 8–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Jun 2026, 16:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or Sao Bernardo FC SP in the double chance market at 2.00 — a 25-point edge over the implied probability, driven by the visitors' unbeaten away record and CRB's poor home form.

Avoid the home win at short odds and the over 2.5 goals market, where the edge is too thin.

Context

Sao Bernardo away record in Serie B: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Only 3 goals conceded in 5 away matches (0.6 per game).
- CRB home record in Serie B: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, with 7 goals conceded in 5 games.
CRB home results: 4-2 win vs Ponte Preta, 0-0 vs Fortaleza (cup), 3-0 vs Operario, 0-1 vs Juventude, 2-3 vs Athletic Club.
- Excluding the 4-2 win, CRB scored only 5 goals in 4 home matches.
- CRB failed to score in 2 of their 5 home league games.
Veteran player Para said in mid-May that the club's first goal was 45 points and securing permanence.
- The club's messaging focuses on survival before discussing promotion.
- This contrasts with the aggressive approach often expected from league leaders.
CBF changed access rules for 2026: 1st and 2nd go up directly, 3rd-6th enter two-leg playoffs.
- Sao Bernardo led the table with 20 points as of late May.
- CRB are in the chasing pack, needing points to break into the top six.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo FC SP's strong away form and CRB AL's poor home record give the visitors a clear edge, supported by the away team's defensive solidity on the road.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 5 away matches this season (Serie B).
- CRB AL home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in 5 home matches this season.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP overall form: 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses; CRB AL overall form: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP goals conceded per away match: 0.6; CRB AL goals conceded per home match: 1.4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sao Bernardo FC SP's unbeaten away record and CRB AL's home struggles, the double chance covering a draw or away win is highly probable.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have not lost an away match this season (4W, 1D).
- CRB AL have lost 3 of 5 home matches this season.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have drawn 3 of 11 overall matches; CRB AL have drawn 2 of 11.
- Head-to-head: no previous meetings, but current form strongly favors the away side.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Sao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws in their recent matches, suggesting a balanced start to the game.
- CRB AL first half home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 5 matches.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP first half away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in 5 matches.
- CRB AL have been drawing at halftime in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of Sao Bernardo FC SP's tendency to draw at halftime and their strong second-half performances on the road supports a draw/away win double result.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have been drawing at halftime in 3 of 5 away matches.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have won 4 of 5 away matches this season.
- CRB AL have lost 3 of 5 home matches, often after being level or behind at halftime.
- No direct H2H data, but pattern suggests Sao Bernardo FC SP could edge it after a tight first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Sao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CRB AL's home games have been high-scoring, and while Sao Bernardo FC SP is defensively solid, the hosts' recent trend of over 2.5 goals in most matches suggests this game could see at least three goals.
- CRB AL home matches average 3.2 total goals (9 scored, 7 conceded in 5 games).
- Sao Bernardo FC SP away matches average 2.6 total goals (10 scored, 3 conceded in 5 games).
- CRB AL last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP last 5 matches: 2 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, but their away games tend to be higher scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net in their respective home and away fixtures, making it likely that each side scores in this encounter.
- CRB AL have scored in 4 of 5 home matches this season.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have scored in all 5 away matches this season.
- CRB AL have conceded in 4 of 5 home matches.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have conceded in 3 of 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CRB AL's tendency to score early at home, combined with Sao Bernardo FC SP's occasional first-half goals on the road, supports at least one goal in the first half.
- CRB AL first half goals per home match: 1.0 (5 goals in 5 home games).
- Sao Bernardo FC SP first half goals per away match: 0.6 (3 goals in 5 away games).
- CRB AL have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have scored in the first half in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open for both sides, with CRB AL's home matches particularly high-scoring after the break.
- CRB AL second half goals per home match: 1.8 (9 goals in 5 home games).
- Sao Bernardo FC SP second half goals per away match: 1.4 (7 goals in 5 away games).
- CRB AL have seen over 1.5 second-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Sao Bernardo FC SP have seen over 1.5 second-half goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the averages are slightly below 9.5, the variability in corner counts and the attacking intent of both sides could push the total over the line.
- CRB AL average corners per home match: 4.4 (overall), but recent home games show higher numbers (e.g., 12 vs Ponte Preta).
- Sao Bernardo FC SP average corners per away match: 4.3 (overall), with some away games reaching 6-7 corners.
- Combined average corners in CRB AL matches: 8.7; in Sao Bernardo FC SP matches: 8.6.
- Recent head-to-head not available, but both teams' corner stats suggest a total around 9-10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a consistent card rate that averages just above 4.5 per game, making over 4.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- CRB AL average yellow cards per match: 2.4; Sao Bernardo FC SP average: 2.4.
- CRB AL home matches average 2.6 yellow cards; Sao Bernardo FC SP away matches average 2.4 yellow cards.
- Combined average cards in CRB AL matches: 4.8; in Sao Bernardo FC SP matches: 4.8.
- Recent matches for both teams have seen multiple bookings, with several games exceeding 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	CRB AL	11	4	2	5	17-17	14	LWWWW
3	Sao Bernardo FC SP Promotion Playoffs	11	6	3	2	17-8	21	DWDWW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

CRB AL

L0-2CuiabaMay 31SER

W4-2Ponte PretaMay 24SER

W2-1Sport RecifeMay 17SER

D0-0Fortaleza ECMay 14COP

W3-0Operario-PRMay 9SER

W2-1America MineiroMay 3SER

W3-0SousaApr 30COP

L1-3CriciumaApr 26SER

L1-2Fortaleza ECApr 22COP

L0-1JuventudeApr 18SER

D0-0Fluminense PIApr 15COP

L2-3Athletic ClubApr 12SER

L0-2ASAApr 9COP

D1-1NovorizontinoApr 5SER

L0-1AvaiApr 2SER

Sao Bernardo FC SP

D1-1NovorizontinoMay 31SER

W1-0Atletico GoianienseMay 24SER

D1-1America MineiroMay 16SER

W3-1LondrinaMay 12SER

D1-1CaxiasMay 7COP

W3-0Ponte PretaMay 3SER

D2-2TombenseApr 30COP

W1-0GoiasApr 26SER

W3-0Nautico RecifeApr 18SER

L0-1CianorteApr 15COP

L0-1Fortaleza ECApr 12SER

L0-1NovorizontinoApr 9COP

W2-1Botafogo SPApr 5SER

L1-2Operario-PRApr 2SER

D2-2Sampaio Corrêa RJMar 29COP

Squad & Injuries

CRB AL

42 available

Attackers12

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper4

Sao Bernardo FC SP

37 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Sao Bernardo FC SP

Yes

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Over 0.5

League Table

Recent Form

CRB AL

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Squad & Injuries

CRB AL

Sao Bernardo FC SP