Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

America MG1Londrina1

HT 1–0Mon 13 Jul 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 23–11On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Jul 2026, 17:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or Londrina (Double Chance) at 1.80 for a 19-point edge, as América MG are winless at home with the league's worst attack, while Londrina have avoided defeat in three of four.

For a higher-value play, take First Half Under 0.5 goals at 2.75, where both teams' dreadful first-half scoring records create an 18.6-point edge. Avoid the 1st Half Both Teams to Score 'No' at 1.17, which is heavily overpriced.

Context

América MG's home record is 0-1-6 with 4 goals scored and 12 conceded.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 home matches, averaging 0.57 goals per home game.
- They have lost 5 of their last 6 league matches overall, scoring only 2 goals in that span.
Bruno Santos left the club on 6 July after scoring 17 goals in 31 matches.
- Iago Teles and André Luiz made their last appearance against CRB on 4 July.
- Rai Nascimento was announced as a new attacking reinforcement on 5 July.
Londrina's official homepage showed them in 16th place on 18 points as of 8 July.
- They have won 2 of their last 3 matches, showing improved form ahead of this trip.
- A win could move them further from the bottom four, adding urgency to their performance.
Goalkeeper Bruno Brígido was officially announced on 26 June.
- Left-back Tobias Ostchega was announced on 2 July, with both deals running to 30 November 2026.
- América MG have conceded 1.5 goals per home match, so defensive reinforcement was needed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
America MG's home form is disastrous with no wins and a severe goal drought, while Londrina arrive with momentum from two recent wins and face a host with the worst attack in the league, giving the visitors a clear edge despite their own away struggles.
- America MG are bottom of Serie B with 6 points from 16 matches, winless at home (0-1-6) with only 4 goals scored and 12 conceded in 7 home games.
- Londrina sit 16th with 18 points, but have won 2 of their last 3 matches including a 5-0 home win over CRB and a 2-0 home win over Athletic Club.
- America MG have lost 5 of their last 6 league matches, scoring only 2 goals in that span while conceding 10.
- Londrina's away record is poor (2-1-5) but they have scored in 6 of 8 away games, while America MG have failed to score in 5 of 7 home games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLondrinaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With America MG winless at home and showing no signs of improvement, the probability of them failing to win is very high; Londrina's recent uptick in form makes a draw or away win the most likely outcome.
- America MG have not won any of their 7 home matches this season (0-1-6).
- Londrina have avoided defeat in 3 of their last 4 matches overall (W2 D1).
- America MG have lost 12 of 16 league matches, the most in Serie B.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings (all in Serie B), America MG have won 2, drawn 1, lost 2, but those matches date back to 2017-2019 and current form heavily favors Londrina.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or LondrinaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for slow starts, with America MG often level at the break at home and Londrina's away first halves being inconsistent, making a halftime draw the most likely scenario.
- America MG have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Londrina have been drawing at halftime in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- America MG's first-half record at home: 1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses (from available data).
- Londrina's first-half record away: 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
America MG's second-half defensive frailties and lack of scoring, combined with Londrina's better second-half attacking output, suggest Londrina could edge the second period.
- America MG have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches (based on match results and halftime scores).
- Londrina have won the second half in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- America MG concede 1.0 goals per second half on average (total 1.5 minus first-half 0.5), while scoring only 0.31 second-half goals at home.
- Londrina score 0.9 goals per second half on average (total 1.4 minus first-half 0.5).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLondrinaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a common pattern, America MG's tendency to be level at halftime before collapsing in the second half aligns with a potential Draw/Londrina HT/FT outcome.
- America MG have drawn at halftime in 3 of 7 home matches, and lost the full match in 6 of 7.
- Londrina have drawn at halftime in 1 of 8 away matches, but won the full match in 2 of 8.
- The combination of a first-half draw and a Londrina full-time win has occurred in 1 of America MG's home matches this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/LondrinaEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
America MG's chronic scoring problems at home (0.57 goals per game) combined with Londrina's recent defensive solidity (2 clean sheets in last 3) point to a low-scoring affair, despite Londrina's decent away scoring record.
- America MG average only 0.9 goals per match overall and just 0.57 goals per home match (4 goals in 7 home games).
- Londrina average 1.4 goals per match but have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches.
- America MG's last 5 league matches have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of them.
- Londrina's away matches average 3.0 total goals, but America MG's home matches average only 2.29 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given America MG's extreme home scoring drought (clean sheet in 71% of home games) and Londrina's recent defensive improvement, it is more likely that at least one team fails to score, with America MG being the prime candidate.
- America MG have failed to score in 5 of their 7 home matches this season.
- Londrina have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 matches.
- America MG have scored only 4 goals in 7 home games, the worst home attack in the league.
- Londrina have conceded in 6 of 8 away matches, but America MG's attacking impotence reduces the likelihood of them scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Londrina's away defensive record is generally poor, America MG's home attack is historically bad, giving Londrina a reasonable chance of a rare away clean sheet.
- America MG have failed to score in 5 of 7 home matches.
- Londrina have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches overall.
- America MG average only 0.57 goals per home game.
- Londrina have kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAmerica MG not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, especially America MG at home, making a goalless first half a strong possibility.
- America MG average 0.6 first-half goals per match, but only 0.29 first-half goals at home (2 goals in 7 home first halves).
- Londrina average 0.5 first-half goals per match, and 0.38 first-half goals away (3 goals in 8 away first halves).
- In America MG's last 5 home matches, only 1 first-half goal was scored (by them).
- Londrina have scored a first-half goal in only 2 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede and score more after halftime, and with America MG's defense often crumbling late, at least one second-half goal is highly probable.
- America MG concede 1.5 goals per match overall, with 67% of their conceded goals coming in the second half (based on first-half conceded avg 0.5 vs total 1.5).
- Londrina score 1.4 goals per match, with 64% of their goals coming in the second half (first-half avg 0.5).
- In America MG's last 5 home matches, 4 of 5 saw at least one second-half goal.
- Londrina's away matches average 1.75 second-half goals (total away goals 3.0 minus first-half away goals 1.25).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner rates, and the combined average hovers around the 9.5 line, but recent home matches for America MG have trended slightly under, making under 9.5 a reasonable pick.
- America MG average 4.8 corners per match overall, and 5.0 corners at home (estimated from data).
- Londrina average 4.9 corners per match overall, and 4.5 corners away (estimated).
- Combined average corners in America MG home matches: approximately 9.5 (home 5.0 + opponent 4.5).
- In America MG's last 5 home matches, total corners have been under 9.5 in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have above-average disciplinary records, and their combined yellow card averages consistently exceed 4.5, making over 4.5 cards a solid expectation.
- America MG average 2.4 yellow cards per match, Londrina average 2.8 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.2 per match.
- America MG home matches average 2.6 yellow cards for them and 2.4 for opponents, total 5.0.
- Londrina away matches average 3.0 yellow cards for them and 2.6 for opponents, total 5.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 2W

W0-1LondrinavAmerica MineiroNov 8, 2019SER

L4-3America MineirovLondrinaAug 7, 2019SER

D0-0LondrinavAmerica MineiroNov 18, 2017SER

L3-2America MineirovLondrinaAug 1, 2017SER

America MG: 2 clean sheets3.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
20	America MG Relegation	16	1	3	12	10-27	6	LLLWL
16	Londrina	16	5	3	8	24-24	18	WDWWL

12pt gap between teamsAmerica MG in relegation zone

Recent Form

America MG

L0-1CuiabaJul 2SER

L0-1Operario-PRJun 27SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 23SER

W3-0Fortaleza ECJun 16SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseJun 8SER

L0-3JuventudeMay 30SER

L1-2Vila NovaMay 24SER

D1-1São BernardoMay 16SER

L0-4Nautico RecifeMay 10SER

W3-2CianorteMay 7COP

L1-2CRBMay 3SER

L1-2Chapecoense-scApr 29COP

L0-1Ponte PretaApr 24SER

D0-0Sport RecifeApr 18SER

W2-1Sampaio Corrêa RJApr 15COP

Londrina

W5-0CRBJul 4SER

D2-2CuiabaJun 25SER

W2-0Athletic ClubJun 20SER

W3-2AvaiJun 16SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 6SER

L0-1Vila NovaMay 31SER

L0-3Fortaleza ECMay 23SER

W4-1Ponte PretaMay 18SER

L1-3São BernardoMay 12SER

L0-3Operario-PRMay 3SER

L0-1JuventudeApr 26SER

D0-0CearaApr 19SER

L1-2Atletico GoianienseApr 12SER

L1-2Sport RecifeApr 4SER

D2-2GoiasApr 1SER

Squad & Injuries

America MG

47 available

Attackers13

Midfielders10

Defenders19

Goalkeeper5

Londrina

37 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

America MG1Londrina1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Londrina

Londrina

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Draw at half-time / Londrina at full-time

No

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

America MG

Londrina

Squad & Injuries

America MG

Londrina