Nautico PE0Gremio Novorizontino SP2

HT 0–2Thu 8 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 6–12On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 21:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Nautico have not lost in seven tracked home matches, but Novorizontino arrive third in Serie B and scoring freely on the road.

A first half that stays level, with both teams scoring over the 90 minutes, is the likeliest shape. Three prices offer something — the first-half draw at 2.2, Nautico level or ahead at the break at 1.36, and both teams to score at 1.67; the match draw at 3.3 and a Novorizontino win at 2.3 do not.

Context

Nautico's home venue is the setting for the best run either side brings into this game.
That is the strongest form line in this fixture: no home defeat in the tracked window, a goal in every one of the seven games, and two clean sheets. The same window's away split is winless in eight, which makes the home venue the obvious reason for the run. Seven matches is a short sample, and the 1.86 home scoring rate sits above their season-long home league return of 19 goals in 15 matches, so the recent rate may be running a little hot.
- Nautico home split, 23 July to 26 September 2026: 7 matches, 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats, 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
- Nautico scored in all 7 of those home matches and kept 2 clean sheets.
Novorizontino arrive on the back of that home win but play this one on the road.
The Goias match shows what Novorizontino can do when they get on top, with 13 shots on target and a clean sheet. It came at home against a different opponent, while this round 32 game is away at Aflitos, so the same output does not transfer directly. Nautico have conceded 1.00 goal per home game across seven tracked home matches, a tougher test than the one Novorizontino met in that 3-0.
- Serie B, 2 October 2026: Novorizontino 3-0 Goias, with 32 shots, 13 on target, 4 corners and 13 shots faced.
- It is the highest shot count in Novorizontino's six most recent matches.
Sávio Pereira Sampaio (DF) takes charge of this round 32 Série B fixture at Aflitos, working with Lucas Costa Modesto and Uesclei Regison Pereira dos Santos on the lines and Carlos Eduardo Nunes Braga in the VAR room. That fixes the officiating crew for Náutico's home meeting with Novorizontino, so the matchday logistics around who polices the game and reviews decisions are settled. No club-specific factor around the appointment has surfaced, so its bearing on how the contest plays out is limited and it does not by itself change the reading of the game.
- Sávio Pereira Sampaio (DF) is the referee for the Série B round 32 fixture between Náutico and Grêmio Novorizontino at Aflitos.
- Lucas Costa Modesto and Uesclei Regison Pereira dos Santos are the assistant referees for the fixture.
- Carlos Eduardo Nunes Braga is the VAR for the fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 21:34 · Europe/BucharestSérie B round 32 fixture page, Náutico vs Grêmio Novorizontinowww.cbf.com.br · 4 Oct 2026
Nautico host this round 32 fixture after the June meeting was played at Novorizontino.
The 2-2 in June is the only meeting between the two clubs since 2022, and it ended with both teams scoring. A single game from four months ago carries limited weight, and this fixture is at Aflitos rather than Novorizontino's ground, so the venue is reversed. It is still the freshest head-to-head on record and the best available hint at how the sides match up.
- Head-to-head on 14 June 2026 in Serie B: Novorizontino 2-2 Nautico Recife.
- It is the most recent of the three meetings between the clubs in the supplied record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.80
The read
Nautico's strong home record and scoring reliability at Aflitos give them a slight edge, though Novorizontino are higher in the table.
- Nautico are unbeaten in 7 tracked home matches (5W 2D) with 1.86 goals for and 1.00 against per game.
- Novorizontino sit 3rd but have lost 4 of 15 away league matches.
- Nautico have scored in all 7 tracked home games.
- The most recent head-to-head in June ended 2-2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNautico PEEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
First halves are typically tight in this league, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Nautico's first-half goal difference at home is +0.43 per game.
- Novorizontino's first-half goal difference away is +0.43 per game.
- First halves are low-scoring, with Nautico averaging 1.00 total first-half goals at home.
- Novorizontino average 1.57 total first-half goals away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams scoring and conceding after the break, a draw in the second half is the most likely single result.
- Nautico's home second-half goal difference is +0.43 per game.
- Novorizontino's away second-half goal difference is +0.29 per game.
- Both teams' second-half totals are moderate.
- Nautico's home matches average 1.86 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Nautico's strong home record and scoring reliability at Aflitos give them a slight edge, though Novorizontino are higher in the table. Novorizontino's higher league position and strong away scoring make them a serious threat despite Nautico's home form.
- Nautico are unbeaten in 7 tracked home matches (5W 2D) with 1.86 goals for and 1.00 against per game.
- Novorizontino sit 3rd but have lost 4 of 15 away league matches.
- Novorizontino are 3rd with 54 points, 12 more than Nautico.
- They average 1.86 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNautico PE or Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both teams' venue-specific scoring rates point to a high chance of at least three goals.
- Nautico's home matches average 2.86 total goals (1.86 for, 1.00 against).
- Novorizontino's away matches average 3.00 total goals (1.86 for, 1.14 against).
- Eight of the combined last 12 matches for both teams went over 2.5 goals.
- The June head-to-head produced four goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have a high rate of scoring and conceding, making both to score likely.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Nautico's 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Novorizontino's 15 tracked matches.
- In home matches, 5 of Nautico's 7 had both teams scoring.
- In away matches, 5 of Novorizontino's 7 had both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nautico's overall scoring is lower than their home split, so under 1.5 is a real possibility.
- Nautico's overall goals for average is 1.20 per match.
- In their most recent home match against Botafogo SP they scored once.
- Novorizontino kept four clean sheets in 15 overall.
- Nautico were held to one goal or fewer in several recent matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNautico PE under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's away scoring record makes it more likely than not that Nautico concede.
- Novorizontino scored in 5 of 7 tracked away matches.
- They average 1.86 goals per away match.
- Nautico have kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- Nautico conceded in 5 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGremio Novorizontino SP to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates suggest at least one goal before the break is likely.
- Nautico's home first halves average 1.00 total goals.
- Novorizontino's away first halves average 1.57 total goals.
- Eight of the combined last 12 matches for both teams had a first-half goal.
- The June head-to-head produced four goals overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal rates for both teams point to a good chance of two or more goals after the break.
- Nautico's home second halves average 1.86 total goals.
- Novorizontino's away second halves average 1.43 total goals.
- Six of Nautico's last six matches had at least one second-half goal.
- Four of Novorizontino's last six matches had at least one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Overall corner averages and recent counts show under 11.5 is also a realistic outcome.
- Nautico's overall matches average 11.00 total corners.
- Novorizontino's overall matches average 12.67 total corners.
- Three of Nautico's last six matches had under 11.5 corners.
- Four of Novorizontino's last six matches had under 11.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Overall shot averages are below the line, making under 33.5 the more likely side.
- Nautico's overall matches average 31.33 total shots.
- Novorizontino's overall matches average 29.47 total shots.
- Two of Nautico's last six matches had under 33.5 total shots.
- Four of Novorizontino's last six matches had under 33.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 33.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot-on-target averages are below the line, making under 10.5 the more likely outcome.
- Nautico's overall matches average 9.33 total shots on target.
- Novorizontino's overall matches average 8.53 total shots on target.
- Five of Nautico's last six matches had under 10.5 shots on target.
- Three of Novorizontino's last six matches had under 10.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Overall card averages and recent counts lean toward under 4.5.
- Nautico's overall matches average 4.07 total cards.
- Novorizontino's overall matches average 4.13 total cards.
- Five of Nautico's last six matches had under 4.5 cards.
- Four of Novorizontino's last six matches had under 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance54%