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Predictions graded

Gremio Novorizontino SP3Goias0

HT 1–0Fri 2 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 33%–67%ShotsShots 31–13On targetOn target 13–4CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 18:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Novorizontino host a Goiás side chasing the last playoff place, and the visitors' week has been unsettled by reported wage unrest.

Novorizontino look the likelier winners and a low-scoring night is the lean, but none of the reviewed prices is worth taking: a Novorizontino win at 1.62, under 2.5 goals at 1.62, both teams to score No at 1.65, a first-half goal at 1.38, and both teams scoring before half-time No at 1.13.

Context

Goiás players and staff have been declining interviews because pay is late, and routine pre-match media activity was uncertain. That unrest sits around a squad that must travel to Novo Horizonte in midweek while still chasing the last playoff place. The dispute is aimed at the board rather than at team selection, so any effect on the lineup or performance is unproven, and no club official has confirmed the reports.
- Alexandre Ferrari reported on 24 September that Goiás players and coaching staff would keep refusing interviews because of delayed salaries and that the club was unlikely to hold its traditional pre-match press conference.
- Rádio Tupi reported on 21 September that Goiás players had broken their silence to expose unpaid wages.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 18:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Novorizontino are second on 51 points and level with Fortaleza after a 0-0 home draw with São Bernardo, so the top of the table is tightly packed. A home fixture against a mid-table Goiás side is the kind of game the Tigre are expected to convert to protect automatic promotion. Their remaining away trips, including Vila Nova and Atlético-GO, make home points especially valuable. The stakes explain the pressure on the game, not the outcome.
- Mídia do Tigre reported Novorizontino as the division's vice-leaders after a 0-0 home draw with São Bernardo on 25 September.
- Noite de Copa reported that the draw left Novorizontino at risk of dropping in the race for the top positions, with the chasing pack closing in.
- FutebolDeTerceira listed Novorizontino among the main title contenders in the final rounds.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 18:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Goiás lost 1-0 to Atlético-GO at the Serrinha on 26 September, dropping a direct duel against the team holding the last playoff place. That keeps them 11th on 42 points and widens the gap they now carry into a midweek away fixture. An analytics account rated Goiás's chance creation the weakest in the division, which makes chasing results harder. The result does not settle anything mathematically, but it raises the cost of the Novorizontino trip.
- Mídia Esmeraldina reported Goiás's 1-0 defeat to Atlético-GO at the Serrinha on 26 September and confirmed the next fixture at Novorizontino in round 31.
- Goiás em Números reported the derby as a direct duel for the last G6 place, with Goiás 11th on 42 points and four behind Atlético-GO.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 18:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Mozart took over around round 16 and has made Goiás markedly meaner, with goals conceded dropping from 1.50 to 0.91 per game while created chances fell from 1.27 to 1.03. The result is a team that is harder to break down but leans on finishing a smaller volume of chances, a trade-off that shapes how they approach an away game against a promotion chaser. The comparison comes from one analytical account's round-by-round breakdown rather than the club, so the tactical read should be treated cautiously.
- Goiás em Números records Mozart taking charge of Goiás from round 16, after an interim round under Leandro Campos.
- The same breakdown shows Goiás's goals conceded falling from 1.50 to 0.91 per game under Mozart while chances created fell from 1.27 to 1.03, with all four defeats by a single goal.
- Mídia Esmeraldina noted that Mozart's earlier 2026 spell at Ceará included five clássicos against Fortaleza without defeat, two wins and three draws.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 18:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.13fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 88.5%

−6.5ppshort

Both teams finding the net before the break is rare for these two sides.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

−4.5ppshort

Recent matches for both clubs have usually featured at least one goal before the break.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.62fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 61.7%

−5.7ppshort

Both teams' home and away splits point towards a match in the low two-goal range.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

−5.6ppshort

Novorizontino have kept home opponents quiet and Goiás have been shut out in half of their last six.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Gremio Novorizontino SP

1.62fair 1.96

BetBugs 51% · Market 61.7%

−10.7ppshort

Novorizontino are chasing automatic promotion and have been hard to score against at home, while Goiás have lost more away games than they have won.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.62
The read
Novorizontino are chasing automatic promotion and have been hard to score against at home, while Goiás have lost more away games than they have won.
- Novorizontino are 2nd on 51 points from 30 games; Goiás are 11th on 42
- Novorizontino league home record: 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 23 goals for, 14 against
- Novorizontino concede 0.63 goals per home game in the supplied window
- Goiás away record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses, 1.07 goals scored per away game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are modest, making a level interval the single most likely outcome.
- Novorizontino average 0.88 first-half home goals, Goiás 0.86 away
- Novorizontino concede only 0.25 first-half goals at home
- Goiás concede 0.43 first-half goals away
- Two of Novorizontino's last four home matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily after the break in these splits, which favours a level second half.
- Novorizontino score 0.63 and concede 0.38 second-half goals at home
- Goiás score 0.29 and concede 0.86 second-half goals away
- Novorizontino's most recent home match had a goalless second half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino are chasing automatic promotion and have been hard to score against at home, while Goiás have lost more away games than they have won. Novorizontino's recent home games have been tight and Goiás have drawn a third of their away league matches.
- Novorizontino are 2nd on 51 points from 30 games; Goiás are 11th on 42
- Novorizontino league home record: 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 23 goals for, 14 against
- Novorizontino have drawn 4 of 15 league home games
- Goiás have drawn 5 of 15 league away games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino have started home games on the front foot and led at the break in two recent home wins. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are modest, making a level interval the single most likely outcome.
- Novorizontino average 0.88 first-half goals at home and concede 0.25
- Goiás average 0.86 first-half goals away and concede 0.43
- Novorizontino average 0.88 first-half home goals, Goiás 0.86 away
- Novorizontino concede only 0.25 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point towards a match in the low two-goal range.
- Novorizontino's home games in this window average 1.5 scored and 0.63 conceded
- Goiás' away games in this window average 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded
- Novorizontino's last three matches produced 0, 3 and 2 goals
- Goiás have kept one clean sheet in 15 league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Novorizontino have kept home opponents quiet and Goiás have been shut out in half of their last six.
- Novorizontino kept three clean sheets in eight home matches in this window
- Goiás failed to score in three of their last six matches
- Novorizontino concede 0.63 goals per home game
- Goiás average 1.14 goals per away game in this window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's home scoring rate sits right on this line and their latest home game brought no goals.
- Novorizontino average 1.5 goals per home game in this window
- Their 15 league home games produced 23 goals (1.53 per game)
- Goiás concede 1.29 goals per away game in this window
- Novorizontino's most recent home match finished 0-0
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGremio Novorizontino SP under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Goiás' away scoring is low and Novorizontino concede very few goals at home.
- Goiás average 1.14 goals per away game in this window
- Their 15 league away games produced 16 goals
- Novorizontino concede 0.63 goals per home game in this window
- Goiás failed to score in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGoias under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Recent matches for both clubs have usually featured at least one goal before the break.
- Novorizontino average 0.88 first-half home goals, Goiás 0.86 away
- A first-half goal was scored in 3 of Novorizontino's last 4 home matches
- A first-half goal was scored in 5 of Goiás' last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Both teams finding the net before the break is rare for these two sides.
- Novorizontino's home first-half concession rate is 0.25 goals per game
- Goiás average 0.86 first-half goals away
- Only one of Goiás' last six matches had both teams scoring before half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates point to fewer than two goals after the break.
- Novorizontino score 0.63 and concede 0.38 second-half goals at home
- Goiás score 0.29 and concede 0.86 second-half goals away
- Novorizontino's last home match had no second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Goiás' away games have produced corner counts below this line, even if Novorizontino's home matches come close to it.
- Goiás' away matches in this window total 9.7 corners on average
- Goiás' last six matches averaged 11 total corners
- Novorizontino's home matches in this window average 12.9 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both clubs' home and away shot totals sit below this line.
- Novorizontino's home matches total 27.6 shots on average
- Goiás' away matches total 27.0 shots on average
- Goiás take 10.3 shots per away game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 29.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Goiás' matches have been card-heavy, especially on their travels.
- Goiás' away matches average 4.9 cards (1.7 own, 3.1 opponent)
- Goiás' last six matches averaged 5.8 cards and included a red card
- Novorizontino's home matches average 3.6 cards (1.5 own, 2.1 opponent)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Gremio Novorizontino SP matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B