Ponte Preta1Nautico PE1

HT 1–0Fri 14 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 13–14On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 6–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 09:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Ponte Preta are bottom of the table with a leaky defense, making Náutico PE the likely winner, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting angle is both teams to score at 1.80, where the model sees a small edge. Avoid the match winner and double chance markets as they are priced efficiently.

Context

Ponte Preta have won only 2 of 21 league matches this season.
- At home, they have lost 7, drawn 3, and won only 1 of 11 matches.
- They have conceded 18 goals at home while scoring only 8.
- Their last four matches have all been defeats.
Nautico PE's away record is W3 D3 L5.
- They have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 away matches.
- They have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches in all venues.
- Their away goal difference is -2 (11 scored, 13 conceded).
Ponte Preta have conceded 41 goals in 21 games, an average of 1.95 per game.
- They have conceded 2+ goals in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- They have kept only 2 clean sheets all season.
- Their last clean sheet was in a 0-0 draw against Botafogo SP on 1 June.
Nautico PE won 1-0 at home on 4 April 2026.
- Ponte Preta won 1-0 away on 20 September 2025 and 24 May 2025.
- The other recent meeting was a 1-1 draw on 27 September 2025.
- The last five meetings have produced only 5 total goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Nautico PE

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Ponte Preta are bottom of the table with 16 losses in 21 games and have lost their last 4, while Nautico PE are 17 points better off and won the most recent H2H.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Nautico PE

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Ponte Preta have won only 2 of 21 league matches and have a terrible home record, making the double chance of draw or away win strongly supported.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nautico PE's superior league position and Ponte Preta's terrible form and defensive record make an away win the most likely outcome, supported by the recent H2H victory.
- Ponte Preta are 20th with 9 points from 21 games, losing 16, and have lost their last 4 matches.
- Nautico PE are 14th with 26 points, 17 points ahead of Ponte Preta.
- Ponte Preta have conceded 41 goals in 21 games (1.95 per game), while Nautico PE have scored 25 and conceded 25.
- Nautico PE won the most recent H2H 1-0 in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNautico PEEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ponte Preta's dreadful home record and Nautico PE's decent away form, the double chance of draw or away win is strongly supported by the standings and home/away splits.
- Ponte Preta have won only 2 of 21 league matches this season.
- Ponte Preta have lost 7 of 11 home matches, drawing 3.
- Nautico PE have lost only 5 of 11 away matches, winning 3 and drawing 3.
- Ponte Preta's home goal difference is -10 (8 scored, 18 conceded).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Nautico PEEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often find themselves level at the break, and with neither side dominant early, a first-half draw is a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- Ponte Preta have led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 60%, and drawn in 27%.
- Nautico PE have led at half-time in 33%, trailed in 47%, and drawn in 20%.
- In their last 15 matches, Ponte Preta have drawn at half-time 5 times.
- In their last 15 matches, Nautico PE have drawn at half-time 4 times.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's leaky defense and Nautico PE's consistent scoring suggest a high-scoring game, with both teams' recent matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Ponte Preta's matches average 3.0 total goals (0.7 for, 2.3 against).
- Nautico PE's matches average 2.7 total goals (1.4 for, 1.3 against).
- Ponte Preta have conceded 2+ goals in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Nautico PE have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score while also conceding regularly, making BTTS a likely outcome given the attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
- Ponte Preta have scored in 9 of their last 15 matches despite poor results.
- Nautico PE have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta have conceded in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Nautico PE have conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Ponte Preta especially vulnerable early, making over 0.5 first-half goals a solid prediction.
- Ponte Preta average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 1.1 first-half goals per game.
- Nautico PE average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.7 first-half goals per game.
- In 12 of Ponte Preta's last 15 matches, at least one goal was scored in the first half.
- In 10 of Nautico PE's last 15 matches, at least one goal was scored in the first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Ponte Preta's defense often collapsing late and Nautico PE pushing for goals, the second half is likely to produce multiple goals.
- Ponte Preta concede an average of 1.2 goals in the second half (2.3 total - 1.1 first half).
- Nautico PE score an average of 0.9 goals in the second half (1.4 total - 0.5 first half).
- Ponte Preta's matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 8 of their last 15.
- Nautico PE's matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 7 of their last 15.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Nautico PE's away defense is not stellar, Ponte Preta's scoring struggles make an away clean sheet a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Nautico PE have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta have failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta average only 0.7 goals per game overall and 0.73 at home.
- Nautico PE's away defense concedes 1.55 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPonte Preta not to scoreEstimated chance30%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the expected open play could lead to a total above 9.5, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Ponte Preta average 5.0 corners per game and concede 5.3 opponent corners.
- Nautico PE average 5.7 corners per game and concede 4.7 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 10.5.
- Recent H2H matches have seen varied corner counts, but both teams tend to earn corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's high foul and card counts, combined with Nautico PE's moderate discipline, suggest a card-heavy match, especially with Ponte Preta's desperation.
- Ponte Preta average 3.5 yellow cards per game and 0.8 red cards.
- Nautico PE average 2.5 yellow cards per game and 0 red cards.
- Ponte Preta have received 4+ yellow cards in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Nautico PE have received 3+ yellow cards in 6 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52.4% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Ponte Preta has been highly reliable when projected to go over 4.5 cards

Ponte Preta has fulfilled 3 of 4 Over 4.5 cards predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 57.5%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectations. At home, they fulfilled 2 of 3 such predictions, and the current probability of 60% is within their historical range of 52% to 60%.

Recent evidence for Ponte Preta4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B