Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Nautico PE1Ceara0

HT 1–0Wed 19 Aug 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 23:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Ceará have won the last three H2H meetings to nil, and the match profiles as low-scoring.

The only clear betting edge is 'Both Teams to Score – No' at 1.95 (model 55% vs implied 51.3%). Avoid the heavily juiced under 1.5 goals lines and the overpriced Náutico or Draw double chance.

Context

Ceará won 1-0 in April 2026, 1-0 in August 2017, and 2-0 in May 2017.
- Náutico failed to score in all three matches.
- The most recent meeting was this season, making the trend current.
Recent results: D-D-D-W-L.
- Two of those draws were at home.
- Náutico's home record is 4W-2D-4L, indicating inconsistency.
Away record: 2W-4D-4L.
- They have conceded 14 goals in 10 away games.
- They failed to score in four away matches.
Náutico scored 9 and conceded 8 in 10 home games.
- Four of their ten home games ended with a clean sheet for Náutico.
- Recent H2H matches also stayed under 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.88fair 3.13

BetBugs 32% · Market 34.7%

0.0ppshort

Nautico's last five home matches include three draws and Ceara have drawn four of ten away, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Nautico PE or Draw

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Nautico are at home and Ceara's away record is mediocre, but the price is far too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits and the recent head-to-head matches have all been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the head-to-head matches have been tight in the first half, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Second-half scoring is also low for both teams, and the head-to-head matches have been low-scoring overall, supporting under 1.5 second-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar mid-table records and Nautico's recent form shows a high draw tendency, while Ceara's away form is mediocre, making a draw a strong possibility.
- Nautico PE home record: 4W-2D-4L, 9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 10 home matches
- Ceara away record: 2W-4D-4L, 10 goals scored, 14 conceded in 10 away matches
- Nautico PE last 5 form: D-D-D-W-L (3 draws in last 5)
- Ceara last 5 form: L-W-W-L-D (inconsistent)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nautico PE are at home and have a decent home record, while Ceara's away form is poor, so the home side is likely to avoid defeat.
- Nautico PE home record: 4W-2D-4L, 9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 10 home matches
- Ceara away record: 2W-4D-4L, 10 goals scored, 14 conceded in 10 away matches
- Nautico PE last 5 form: D-D-D-W-L (3 draws in last 5)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNautico PE or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of being level or behind at half time, and the head-to-head matches have all been level at the break, making a first-half draw likely.
- Nautico PE first half record: leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 47%
- Ceara first half record: leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 53%
- H2H recent matches: first half scores were 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 (all draws at half time)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw is possible, the specific HT/FT draw/draw combination is less common, but both teams' tendency to draw in their respective home/away splits gives a low probability.
- Nautico PE home: 2 draws in 10 home matches
- Ceara away: 4 draws in 10 away matches
- H2H recent matches: no draw/draw outcomes in last 3 Serie B meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits and the recent head-to-head matches have all been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Nautico PE home matches average 1.7 total goals (9 scored + 8 conceded in 10 games)
- Ceara away matches average 2.4 total goals (10 scored + 14 conceded in 10 games)
- H2H last 3 Serie B meetings: 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 (all under 2.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The head-to-head pattern shows Nautico failing to score against Ceara, and both teams have moderate scoring rates, making a clean sheet for one side likely.
- Nautico PE home: 9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 10 games (clean sheets in 4 of 10)
- Ceara away: 10 goals scored, 14 conceded in 10 games (failed to score in 4 of 10)
- H2H last 3 Serie B meetings: Ceara won all to nil (Nautico failed to score)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nautico's home defense has been relatively solid, and Ceara's away attack is inconsistent, giving a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Nautico PE home: 8 goals conceded in 10 games (4 clean sheets)
- Ceara away: 10 goals scored in 10 games (failed to score in 4 games)
- H2H: Ceara kept clean sheets in last 3 Serie B meetings, but Nautico's home defense is decent
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCeara not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ceara's away defense is leaky, but the head-to-head trend of clean sheets against Nautico gives some support to an away clean sheet.
- Ceara away: 14 goals conceded in 10 games (2 clean sheets)
- Nautico home: 9 goals scored in 10 games (failed to score in 3 games)
- H2H: Ceara kept clean sheets in last 3 Serie B meetings against Nautico
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNautico PE not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the head-to-head matches have been tight in the first half, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Nautico PE first half goals: 0.5 per game average; first half goals conceded: 0.7 per game
- Ceara first half goals: 0.3 per game average; first half goals conceded: 0.7 per game
- H2H recent matches: 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 (all had 0 or 1 first half goal)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is also low for both teams, and the head-to-head matches have been low-scoring overall, supporting under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Nautico PE second half goals: 0.9 per game (total 1.4 - first half 0.5)
- Ceara second half goals: 0.7 per game (total 1.0 - first half 0.3)
- H2H recent matches: 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 (all had 0 or 1 second half goal)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 6 corners per game, so the combined total is likely to exceed 9.5, though the low confidence reflects variability.
- Nautico PE average corners per game: 5.9 (home average likely similar)
- Ceara average corners per game: 5.8 (away average likely similar)
- Combined average corners: 11.7 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is around 5, and both teams commit a moderate number of fouls, suggesting over 4.5 cards is slightly more likely.
- Nautico PE average yellow cards: 2.7 per game; average fouls: 15.9
- Ceara average yellow cards: 2.3 per game; average fouls: 15.0
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.0 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Nautico PE has been unreliable for Under 2.5 goals

Nautico PE has fulfilled 3 of 6 Under 2.5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 64.5%, but only half of the matches stayed under 2.5 goals. The current prediction of 58% is below the historical range of 60-70%, suggesting lower confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for Nautico PE6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie B