Pitea IF1IF Karlstad1

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–377%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 01:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlstad's better season and away record meet a six-game winless run and a Piteå side with three wins in their last six, so this is more open than the table suggests.

A Karlstad win is the likeliest single result. Of the quoted prices, three offer something: Piteå to win or draw at 2.25, the draw at 4.00 and both teams to score at 1.75; Karlstad to win at 1.60 asks more than their form justifies.

Context

IF Karlstad changed head coach on 14 September 2026, putting Anders Bååth in charge for the closing weeks of the Ettan Norra season. A new appointment resets selection, set-piece duties and in-game management, all of which shape how the side sets up at Piteå. His record stands at 1.27 points per game, and the three league matches since the change all ended in draws, so results have not yet swung decisively under the new staff.
- Anders Bååth took over as IF Karlstad head coach on 14 September 2026.
- His record stands at 1.27 points per game.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:47 · Europe/Bucharest
IF Karlstad are competing with city rivals FBK Karlstad for a qualification place to Superettan, and FBK's win in the last week of September lifted them above IF Karlstad in the Ettan Norra table. IF Karlstad had been fifth on 38 points after the 0-0 derby between the clubs on 16 September. That makes the trip to Piteå a fixture with promotion-playoff consequence rather than a mid-table dead rubber. The current points gap between the two Karlstad clubs is not established in the available material, so how much room either side has remains unclear.
- FBK Karlstad's win on the weekend of 27-28 September 2026 moved them past IF Karlstad in the Ettan Norra table.
- The two Karlstad clubs are competing for a qualification place to Superettan.
- IF Karlstad were fifth on 38 points after the 0-0 home derby against FBK Karlstad on 16 September 2026.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:47 · Europe/Bucharest
IF Karlstad finished their 1-1 draw with Karlberg on 27 September 2026 with ten men after a goal-line handball conceded a penalty in first-half stoppage time. A dismissal of that kind carries a ban into the next fixture, so the Karlstad squad should arrive at Piteå a player light. The identity of the dismissed player is not established and the detail rests on a single match account, so which position is affected and how heavily the side is weakened remain open.
- IF Karlstad drew 1-1 at home with Karlberg on 27 September 2026.
- A Karlstad player handled the ball on the goal line in first-half stoppage time and was sent off, with Karlberg scoring the resulting penalty.
To watchSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:47 · Europe/Bucharest
IF Karlstad arrive with the better record in this fixture, although the last meeting was settled by a single goal.
The head-to-head is one-sided across five Ettan Norra meetings dating back to 29 July 2023, with two six-goal Karlstad wins in 2024 and Piteå's only success a 2-1 away win on 3 September 2023. April's 2-1 was far tighter than the aggregate suggests, so the record points to Karlstad being the more comfortable side in the fixture without promising a repeat of the 2024 scorelines.
- IF Karlstad beat Piteå 2-1 at home on 6 April 2026 in Ettan Norra.
- Piteå 0-6 IF Karlstad on 4 August 2024, and IF Karlstad 6-0 Piteå on 1 July 2024.
- IF Karlstad have won four of the five listed meetings since 29 July 2023; Piteå's win in that run was 2-1 away on 3 September 2023.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's season and away form are clearly stronger than Piteå's home returns, and the head-to-head record also favours them.
- Karlstad's away record is 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, scoring 20 in 12.
- Karlstad sit 6th with 40 points against Piteå's 21.
- Karlstad have won four of the last five meetings between the clubs.
- Piteå have lost 7 of 12 home league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in both sides' matches are low-scoring, which makes the interval level the most likely state.
- Piteå's tracked matches average 1.13 first-half goals in total.
- Karlstad's tracked away matches average 1.29 first-half goals.
- Piteå have conceded 0.8 first-half goals per match across 15.
- Karlstad have conceded 0.57 first-half goals per match across 14.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's recent run is draw-heavy and low-scoring, and neither team has separated itself in the tracked samples. Karlstad's season and away form are clearly stronger than Piteå's home returns, and the head-to-head record also favours them.
- Karlstad have drawn 5 of 14 tracked league matches and 3 of 7 away.
- Karlstad's last six results are four draws and two defeats.
- Karlstad's away record is 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, scoring 20 in 12.
- Karlstad sit 6th with 40 points against Piteå's 21.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or IF KarlstadEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in both sides' matches are low-scoring, which makes the interval level the most likely state. Karlstad's first-half scoring and Piteå's first-half concession rates both point the away side's way at the interval.
- Piteå's tracked matches average 1.13 first-half goals in total.
- Karlstad's tracked away matches average 1.29 first-half goals.
- Karlstad average 0.64 first-half goals across 14 tracked matches.
- Piteå concede 0.8 first-half goals per tracked match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or IF KarlstadEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams' venue splits point to a high-scoring game, with Karlstad's away matches especially productive at both ends.
- Piteå home matches average 2.75 total goals in the tracked window.
- Karlstad away matches average 3.43 total goals.
- Piteå's last six matches produced 20 goals; Karlstad's produced 16.
- Karlstad average 1.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded away.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Karlstad's away matches almost always feature goals at both ends and Piteå usually score at home, so both teams finding the net is the likelier outcome.
- Karlstad's away split shows both teams scoring in 6 of 7 matches.
- Karlstad have both teams scoring in 9 of 14 tracked games.
- Piteå have both teams scoring in 7 of 15.
- Both teams scored in 8 of the two sides' last 12 matches combined.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's home goals-for average sits just over one, making a 0 or 1 goal return the more common outcome.
- Piteå average 1.13 goals per tracked home match.
- Piteå scored 4 goals across 8 tracked home matches.
- Karlstad's away split shows 7 conceded in 7 matches.
- Three of Piteå's last six matches produced one goal or none.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonPitea IF under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's recent scoring has been spread thinly, with single goals common, so staying under two is the slightly likelier outcome.
- Karlstad have scored 7 goals in their last 6 matches.
- Karlstad scored 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 2 across that run.
- Piteå keep clean sheets in 2 of 15 tracked matches.
- Karlstad have drawn four of their last six.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIF Karlstad under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå concede in nearly every home match and Karlstad score regularly on the road.
- Piteå have conceded in 7 of 8 tracked home matches.
- Karlstad scored in 6 of 7 tracked away matches.
- Piteå conceded 1.63 goals per tracked home match.
- Karlstad's away matches show both teams scoring in 6 of 7.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIF Karlstad to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad concede regularly away and Piteå score in most home matches in the window.
- Karlstad's away split shows no clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Karlstad conceded 1.71 goals per tracked away match.
- Piteå average 1.13 goals per tracked home match.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Karlstad's 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both sides' matches usually contain at least one first-half goal, and the recent samples support that.
- Piteå's matches average 1.13 first-half goals.
- Karlstad's matches average 1.21 first-half goals.
- Karlstad have scored first-half goals in 5 of their last 6 matches... (four of six).
- Piteå conceded a first-half goal in three of their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
With modest first-half scoring from both teams, the interval is much more likely to feature goals from at most one side.
- Combined first-half goal averages are around 1.1 per match for both sides.
- Piteå score 0.25 first-half goals per tracked home match.
- Karlstad score 0.71 first-half goals per tracked away match.
- Neither side has both-team first-half scoring as a regular pattern in the tracked window.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Venue splits for both teams show second-half totals comfortably above one and a half goals on average.
- Piteå's tracked matches average 1.6 second-half goals in total.
- Karlstad's tracked matches average 1.5 second-half goals.
- Karlstad's away split shows 2.14 second-half goals per match in total.
- Piteå's home split shows 1.75 second-half goals per match in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Prediction history

IF Karlstad: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring IF Karlstad matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for IF Karlstad4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra