Londrina0Criciuma2

HT 0–0Fri 2 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 14–13On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 17:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Criciúma, fifth and chasing a play-off place, visit a Londrina side 18th and fighting relegation, with the visitors still settling under a new coach.

Criciúma look the likelier winners, and 2.5 is a fair price for them, while the draw or a Criciúma win at 1.43 and Londrina leading at half-time at 3.3 also offer something; the goals lines reviewed are priced too short.

Context

Umberto Louzer took charge after Eduardo Baptista left for Internacional and won his opening game 3-0 against Avaí on 27 September, switching Criciúma away from a back three toward a four-man midfield. The change matters for this trip because Criciúma need wins to hold a promotion play-off place and will be tested away from the Heriberto Hülse. The reshaped midfield has had only that one match together, so how it copes on the road against a relegation-threatened Londrina is still open.
- Criciúma appointed Umberto Louzer as head coach after Eduardo Baptista left to join Internacional.
- Louzer's opening match ended in a 3-0 win over Avaí on 27 September 2026, with Nicolas, Luciano Castán and Willean Lepo scoring in the second half.
- Louzer has moved the team away from the back three used under Eduardo Baptista toward a four-man midfield, with a 4-1-4-1 shape worked on in training.
- Louzer had the full squad available across his first sessions with the group.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 17:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Going into the final eight rounds, Criciúma sit inside the top six that contest the promotion play-offs while Londrina are in the relegation zone, so the same match carries opposite pressure. Criciúma's 3-0 win over Avaí left them fifth on 50 points, while Londrina stayed 18th on 28 after a 2-0 defeat at Vila Nova. The stakes do not by themselves decide a result, but they shape how open or cautious each side is likely to be.
- Criciúma ended round 30 fifth on 50 points, inside the top six that contest the promotion play-offs.
- Londrina stayed 18th on 28 points, inside the relegation zone, with eight rounds remaining.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 17:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Londrina took Igor Bahia on loan from Inter de Lages-SC in September, and the forward scored twice in his first three games, including the equaliser in the 1-2 home defeat to Fortaleza on 20 September. He gives a relegation-threatened side a recognised centre-forward for the run-in. The goals have arrived quickly, but the loan only runs to the end of the Série B campaign.
- Londrina signed Igor Bahia on loan from Inter de Lages-SC until the end of the Série B, announced on 9 September 2026.
- Igor Bahia scored his second goal in three games in the 1-2 home defeat to Fortaleza on 20 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 17:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Criciúma's full 15-match window shows seven clean sheets and 1.07 goals conceded per game, so the overall defensive record looks steady, but the away split is thinner: one clean sheet in six, with both teams scoring in three of those games. They travel to a Londrina side that has scored 1.75 goals per home game across its own eight-match home window. The away sample is six matches and closes on 13 September 2026, so it does not include their most recent outings.
- Criciúma's away window covers six matches from 8 July to 13 September 2026: 2W-1D-3L.
- Those six away matches produced 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, with one clean sheet.
- Both teams scored in three of those six away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Criciúma are the stronger side on the season's evidence and have had a lift from the coaching change.
- 5th on 50 points against 18th on 28
- Won 3-0 at home to Avaí in the new coach's first match
- Away league record 5W-4D-5L
- Won the earlier meeting between the clubs this season
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCriciumaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team's first-half scoring rate is high, so an even opening period is the single most likely outcome.
- Londrina home first-half goals: 0.75 for, 0.625 against
- Criciúma away first-half goals: 0.33 for, 0.67 against
- Criciúma overall first-half goals: 0.4 for, 0.4 against
- Both sides' recent first halves were level in several matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Most of Londrina's home scoring comes after the break, while Criciúma ship goals late on the road.
- Londrina home second halves: 1.0 scored, 0.375 conceded per game
- Criciúma away second halves: 0.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
- Londrina scored 7 second-half goals across their last six matches
- Criciúma conceded 6 second-half goals across their last six
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLondrinaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams' league splits lean tight, and recent meetings between them have often been close. Criciúma are the stronger side on the season's evidence and have had a lift from the coaching change.
- Londrina: 5 draws in 15 home league games
- Criciúma: 4 draws in 14 away league games
- 5th on 50 points against 18th on 28
- Won 3-0 at home to Avaí in the new coach's first match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CriciumaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Londrina start home games more actively than Criciúma start away games. Neither team's first-half scoring rate is high, so an even opening period is the single most likely outcome.
- Londrina home first halves: 0.75 scored, 0.625 conceded per game
- Criciúma away first halves: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded per game
- Londrina home first-half goals: 0.75 for, 0.625 against
- Criciúma away first-half goals: 0.33 for, 0.67 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLondrina or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' season-long goal rates sit near the two-goal mark, so a tight game is the more likely shape.
- Criciúma overall: 0.93 scored, 1.07 conceded per game
- Londrina overall: 1.33 scored, 1.27 conceded per game
- Criciúma have 7 clean sheets in 15 matches
- The last head-to-head finished with a single goal
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both defences have kept clean sheets regularly, especially Criciúma, and one side failing to score is the more common pattern.
- Criciúma's matches have had both teams scoring in only 3 of 15
- Criciúma kept 7 clean sheets in 15
- Londrina home window: 5 clean sheets in 8 matches
- Only 3 of Londrina's 8 home matches had both teams scoring
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams' recent first halves usually contain at least one goal.
- Londrina home first-half total: 1.375 goals per game
- Criciúma away first-half total: 1.0 per game
- Londrina's last six matches produced 8 first-half goals
- Criciúma's last six produced 6 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Criciúma rarely score before half time on the road, making two first-half goals unlikely.
- Londrina home first halves: 0.75 scored per game
- Criciúma away first halves: 0.33 scored per game
- Criciúma overall first halves: 0.4 scored per game
- Neither side scores twice on average before the break
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals in both teams' recent matches sit just under the one-and-a-half line.
- Londrina home second-half total: 1.375 goals per game
- Criciúma away second-half total: 1.5 per game
- Londrina's last six second halves: 7 scored, 3 conceded
- Criciúma's last six second halves: 4 scored, 6 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side generates or concedes enough corners for a total this high.
- Londrina home window: 6.5 corners for, 4.25 against
- Criciúma away window: 6.33 for, 4.83 against
- Criciúma overall: 7.13 for, 3.53 against
- No combined match average on either side reaches 12 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciúma's away matches are low-volume, which pulls the combined shot count below the line.
- Londrina home shots: 17.75 for, 12.5 against
- Criciúma away shots: 12.67 for, 14 against
- Criciúma overall shots: 14.33 for, 11.27 against
- Criciúma's last six matches averaged 25.7 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 30.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot-on-target figures sit just under the line when added together.
- Londrina home shots on target: 5.0 for, 3.5 against
- Criciúma away: 3.33 for, 4.83 against
- Criciúma overall: 3.8 for, 3.47 against
- Criciúma's last six matches produced 7.3 shots on target combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent card counts sit around the line, with Criciúma's last few games slightly above it.
- Londrina home: 2.25 yellows, 2.0 for opponents
- Criciúma away: 2.0 yellows, 2.17 for opponents
- Criciúma overall: 2.47 yellows per game
- Criciúma's last five matches averaged 5.0 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%