Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Criciuma1Goias0

HT 1–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 16–8On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 23:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Criciúma's unbeaten home record and strong defense make them likely to avoid defeat, but the odds offer no value across major markets.

The market has already priced in the home advantage and low-scoring trends, leaving negative edges on double chance, match winner, under 2.5 goals, and BTTS No. Best approach: avoid pre-match bets and consider live betting or alternative markets.

Context

Criciúma home record: 6W 4D 0L, with 12 goals scored and 4 conceded in 10 matches.
- Criciúma kept clean sheets in 6 of 10 home matches.
- Criciúma's last 5 home matches all had under 2.5 goals.
2026-04-07: Goiás 1-0 Criciúma (Serie B).
- 2025-10-25: Criciúma 1-2 Goiás (Serie B).
- The two most recent meetings were both won by Goiás.
Goiás away record: 3W 4D 4L, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded in 11 matches.
- Goiás scored in 8 of 11 away matches.
- Goiás failed to score in only 3 of their last 5 away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Criciuma or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma are unbeaten at home this season (6W 4D) while Goias have lost 4 of 11 away, but the odds already price this at 85% implied probability, leaving no value.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Criciuma

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma's home form is strong but the market has them as a 56% favourite, well above our 45% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma's home matches average only 1.6 total goals and their last five at home all stayed under 2.5, while Goias have been inconsistent away.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma have kept clean sheets in 60% of home matches and Goias failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games, supporting at least one blank.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals overall and Criciuma's home first-half average is 0.4, indicating a slow start is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's strong home form and superior league position give them a clear edge, though Goias' recent H2H wins add some uncertainty.
- Criciuma are unbeaten at home this season (6W 4D 0L) with 12 goals scored and only 4 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Criciuma sit 1st with 40 points, 8 points ahead of 8th-placed Goias.
- Criciuma's last 5 form: LDWWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).
- Goias away record: 3W 4D 4L, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded in 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCriciumaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's unbeaten home record makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Criciuma have not lost at home this season (6W 4D).
- Goias have lost 4 of 11 away matches.
- Criciuma's home goal difference is +8 (12 scored, 4 conceded).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCriciuma or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, making a draw at half-time a plausible outcome.
- Criciuma led at half-time in 53% of matches overall, but only 40% at home.
- Goias trailed at half-time in 27% of matches overall, and 36% away.
- Criciuma's last 5 home matches half-time results: D, W, W, D, W (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Goias' last 5 away matches half-time results: D, W, W, W, D (3 wins, 2 draws).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Criciuma win is a plausible scenario given Criciuma's second-half strength at home.
- Criciuma have drawn at half-time in 4 of 10 home matches.
- Criciuma have won 6 of 10 home matches.
- Goias have drawn at half-time in 4 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/CriciumaEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring trends, especially Criciuma at home, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Criciuma home matches average 1.6 total goals (12 scored + 4 conceded in 10 games).
- Goias away matches average 2.45 total goals (12 scored + 15 conceded in 11 games).
- Criciuma's last 5 home matches: 0-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 (all under 2.5).
- Goias' last 5 away matches: 0-1, 2-1, 2-2, 1-0, 1-1 (three under 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's strong home defense and Goias' inconsistent away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Criciuma have kept clean sheets in 6 of 10 home matches.
- Goias failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Criciuma's home goals conceded average is 0.4 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's defensive solidity at home gives them a good chance of a clean sheet.
- Criciuma have kept clean sheets in 60% of home matches (6/10).
- Goias have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Criciuma's home goals conceded average is 0.4 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGoias not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Criciuma average 0.5 first-half goals per game overall, and 0.4 at home.
- Goias average 0.5 first-half goals per game overall, and 0.45 away.
- Criciuma's last 5 home matches had first-half goals: 0, 1, 1, 0, 1 (all under 1.5).
- Goias' last 5 away matches had first-half goals: 0, 2, 2, 1, 0 (two over 1.5).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is not strongly supported by recent data, but the overall trend slightly favors over 1.5.
- Criciuma's home matches average 1.2 second-half goals (total 1.6 minus 0.4 first-half).
- Goias' away matches average 2.0 second-half goals (total 2.45 minus 0.45 first-half).
- Criciuma's last 5 home matches second-half goals: 0, 1, 0, 1, 0 (average 0.4).
- Goias' last 5 away matches second-half goals: 1, 0, 0, 0, 1 (average 0.4).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined averages hover around the 9.5 line.
- Criciuma average 6.1 corners per match overall, and 6.5 at home.
- Goias average 5.3 corners per match overall, and 4.8 away.
- Combined average corners in Criciuma home matches: 11.3 (Criciuma 6.5 + opponents 4.8).
- Combined average corners in Goias away matches: 10.6 (Goias 4.8 + opponents 5.8).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are close to the 4.5 line, making over 4.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Criciuma average 2.1 yellow cards per match overall, and 2.3 at home.
- Goias average 2.5 yellow cards per match overall, and 2.6 away.
- Combined average yellow cards in Criciuma home matches: 4.9 (Criciuma 2.3 + opponents 2.6).
- Combined average yellow cards in Goias away matches: 5.2 (Goias 2.6 + opponents 2.6).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Criciuma has been highly reliable when projected to win

Criciuma has fulfilled 5 of 7 win predictions, a 71% success rate. The average estimated probability was 50.3%, with an expected 3.5 wins, so they outperformed expectation. Both missed predictions ended in draws, and at home they fulfilled 3 of 5 predictions.

Recent evidence for Criciuma7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie B