Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Ponte Preta1Criciuma2

HT 0–1Wed 8 Jul 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Jul 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Criciuma’s strong form and Ponte’s on- and off-field crisis make an away win the standout bet at 1.73 (7-point edge).

Back ‘Both Teams to Score – No’ at 1.67, as Ponte’s attack is blunt and Criciuma’s defence is stingy. Avoid low-value markets like under 2.5 goals and first-half outcomes.

Context

Diogo Silva decided to leave Ponte on 24 June due to overdue salary, image-rights, and FGTS payments.
- Club president admitted the club was trying to unblock about R$3.7m and had only started paying 2026 amounts.
- Ponte have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches, and losing their starting keeper further weakens a fragile defense.
Rodrigo Santana resigned on 26 May, and Edson Boaro took a short caretaker spell before Zanardi's appointment.
- Zanardi's hiring was delayed by missing financial guarantees, reflecting the club's broader crisis.
- Ponte have lost all five matches since the coaching change, scoring once and conceding 11.
Criciuma's last five matches: W4 D1, with clean sheets in four of those games.
- They have conceded only 0.7 goals per game on average this season, the best defensive record in the league.
- Away from home, Criciuma have lost only twice in eight matches, keeping three clean sheets.
Ponte's last five results: L-L-L-L-L, with a goal difference of 1-11.
- They have failed to score in four of those five matches.
- At home, Ponte have won just once in eight attempts, scoring five goals and conceding 13.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's form is dire with five straight losses and severe off-field instability, while Criciuma is in strong promotion-chasing form, making an away win highly likely.
- Ponte Preta lost last 5 matches, scoring 1 goal and conceding 11 in that span.
- Criciuma is unbeaten in last 5 (W4 D1), conceding only 2 goals.
- Ponte Preta home record: 1W-2D-5L, 5 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- Criciuma away record: 3W-3D-2L, 8 goals scored, 7 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCriciumaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ponte's inability to win at home and Criciuma's solid away form, the visitors are very unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance on Criciuma or draw.
- Ponte Preta has only 1 home win in 8 attempts this season.
- Criciuma has lost only 2 of 8 away matches.
- Ponte Preta's last 5 matches: 0 points, 1 goal scored, 11 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CriciumaEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's tendency to start strong and Ponte's habit of conceding early make an away lead at halftime likely.
- Criciuma led at halftime in 47% of matches, trailing only 20%.
- Ponte Preta trailed at halftime in 47% of matches, leading only 13%.
- Criciuma scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded first-half goals in 4 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCriciumaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ponte's defense tends to weaken as matches progress, while Criciuma often finds goals after halftime, giving them an edge in the second half.
- Ponte Preta conceded 11 goals in last 5 matches, many in second half.
- Criciuma scored second-half goals in 3 of last 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta's second-half goal difference is -10 over last 15 matches.
- Criciuma's second-half goal difference is +5 over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCriciumaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's pattern of leading at halftime and converting to wins aligns with Ponte's inability to recover from deficits, making HT/FT away win plausible.
- Criciuma led at halftime in 7 of 15 matches, winning 6 of those.
- Ponte Preta trailed at halftime in 7 of 15 matches, losing all 7.
- Criciuma won 4 of last 5 matches, leading at halftime in 3 of those wins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableCriciuma/CriciumaEstimated chance35%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte's attack is toothless and Criciuma's defense is stingy, making a low-scoring affair probable despite Ponte's defensive frailties.
- Ponte Preta averages 0.6 goals scored per match over last 15, with 0.4 in first half.
- Criciuma concedes only 0.7 goals per match on average.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Ponte Preta home matches average 2.25 total goals (5 scored, 13 conceded in 8 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte's scoring struggles combined with Criciuma's defensive solidity suggest at least one team will fail to score, likely Ponte.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Criciuma kept 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta averages only 0.6 goals per game overall.
- Criciuma has conceded only 0.7 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's defense is in excellent form and Ponte's attack is the league's worst, making an away clean sheet a strong possibility.
- Criciuma kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Criciuma away clean sheets in 3 of 8 away games this season.
- Ponte Preta scored only 5 goals in 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPonte Preta not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and historical matchups show few early goals, supporting under 1.5 in the first half.
- Ponte Preta averages 0.4 first-half goals, concedes 0.9.
- Criciuma averages 0.6 first-half goals, concedes 0.3.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1 per match.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined averages suggest a total above 9.5 is slightly favored.
- Ponte Preta averages 5.6 corners per match, concedes 6.5 opponent corners.
- Criciuma averages 6.3 corners per match, concedes 4.5 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners: 11.9 per match.
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 10.2 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte's high disciplinary issues, especially under pressure, combined with Criciuma's steady card count, make over 4.5 cards likely.
- Ponte Preta averages 2.8 yellow cards and 0.9 red cards per match.
- Criciuma averages 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average cards: 5.8 per match.
- Ponte Preta received 4+ cards in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

L2-1CriciumavPonte PretaAug 2, 2023SER

L1-2Ponte PretavCriciumaApr 22, 2023SER

D1-1Ponte PretavCriciumaOct 29, 2022SER

D1-1CriciumavPonte PretaJul 15, 2022SER

D1-1CriciumavPonte PretaApr 9, 2021COP

Criciuma unbeaten in 5 meetings2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Ponte Preta Relegation	16	2	2	12	10-31	8	LLLLL
4	Criciuma Promotion Play-offs	15	7	6	2	17-11	27	WWDWW

19pt gap between teamsPonte Preta in relegation zone

Recent Form

Ponte Preta

L0-2Fortaleza ECJul 3SER

L0-2Atletico GoianienseJun 28SER

L0-2NovorizontinoJun 22SER

L0-3JuventudeJun 14SER

L1-2CuiabaJun 9SER

D0-0Botafogo SPJun 1SER

L2-4CRBMay 24SER

L1-4LondrinaMay 18SER

L1-3Sport RecifeMay 9SER

L0-3São BernardoMay 3SER

W1-0America MineiroApr 24SER

W2-1AvaiApr 18SER

L0-1Vila NovaApr 11SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeApr 4SER

D1-1CearaApr 2SER

Criciuma

W1-0São BernardoJun 27SER

W1-0America MineiroJun 23SER

D1-1CearaJun 16SER

W1-0LondrinaJun 6SER

W2-1AvaiMay 30SER

D1-1Operario-PRMay 24SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseMay 17SER

D0-0JuventudeMay 10SER

D1-1CuiabaMay 2SER

W3-1CRBApr 26SER

L2-3Fortaleza ECApr 19SER

W1-0Botafogo SPApr 10SER

L0-1GoiasApr 7SER

D1-1Athletic ClubApr 2SER

W1-0Nautico RecifeMar 22SER

Squad & Injuries

Ponte Preta

50 available

Attackers13

Midfielders16

Defenders18

Goalkeeper3

Criciuma

38 available

Attackers12

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Criciuma

No

Over 4.5

Draw or Criciuma

Under 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ponte Preta not to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ponte Preta

Criciuma

Squad & Injuries

Ponte Preta

Criciuma