Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Criciuma0Fortaleza2

HT 0–1Sun 23 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 19–10On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 10–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Criciúma's home form is strong, but the market has already priced it in, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The low-scoring markets (Under 2.5, BTTS No) also offer no edge. The best read is a likely Criciúma win or draw, but bettors should avoid these markets due to negative expected value.

Context

Criciúma have 7 wins and 4 draws in 11 home league matches.
- They have won 5 of their last 6 home matches across all competitions.
- They concede only 0.36 goals per home game and have kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Fortaleza have 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses in 12 away matches.
- They have scored 6 goals in 12 away matches, failing to score in 4 of their last 8 away games.
- They have lost 5 of 12 away matches this season.
Fortaleza won the April 2026 meeting 3-2.
- The last three H2H results: 3-2 Fortaleza, 1-0 Fortaleza, 1-1 draw.
- Criciúma have not beaten Fortaleza since September 2018.
The promotion playoffs are scheduled for 21 and 28 November, with 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th.
- The better 38-round record hosts the second leg and advances on an aggregate draw.
- Both teams are likely still in contention for a top-six spot, adding importance to the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Criciuma

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma's home form is strong but the market price already reflects that, and the H2H trend tempers the edge.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Criciuma or Draw

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

−4.0ppshort

Criciuma's unbeaten home record supports the double chance, but the odds offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have modest scoring records and Criciuma's home games average only 1.55 total goals, supporting a low-scoring contest.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma's strong home defense and Fortaleza's away scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's strong home record and Fortaleza's poor away form give the hosts a clear edge, though H2H history tempers confidence.
- Criciuma are unbeaten at home this season: 7 wins, 4 draws in 11 matches.
- Criciuma have won 5 of their last 6 home matches across all competitions.
- Fortaleza have only 2 wins in 12 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCriciumaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's unbeaten home record and Fortaleza's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Criciuma have not lost at home in 11 league matches this season.
- Fortaleza have lost 5 of 12 away matches this season.
- Criciuma have won 7 and drawn 4 at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCriciuma or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's tendency to lead at half-time gives them an edge, but Fortaleza's resilience keeps confidence low.
- Criciuma led at half-time in 60% of matches this season.
- Fortaleza trailed at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Criciuma have scored first-half goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCriciumaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's home dominance and first-half leads support a home/home double, but Fortaleza's H2H record adds risk.
- Criciuma led at half-time in 60% of matches and won 55% overall.
- Fortaleza have lost 5 of 12 away matches.
- Criciuma are unbeaten at home.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCriciuma/CriciumaEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring records, and Criciuma's home games are low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Criciuma average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match overall.
- Fortaleza average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match overall.
- Criciuma home matches average 1.55 total goals (13 scored, 4 conceded in 11 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's strong defense at home and Fortaleza's away scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Criciuma have kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Fortaleza have failed to score in 4 of their last 8 away matches.
- Criciuma concede only 0.36 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's defensive solidity at home and Fortaleza's poor away scoring record make a home clean sheet plausible.
- Criciuma have kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Criciuma concede only 0.36 goals per home match.
- Fortaleza have scored only 6 goals in 12 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFortaleza not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Criciuma average 0.6 first-half goals and 0.1 first-half goals conceded.
- Fortaleza average 0.4 first-half goals and 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Criciuma led at half-time in 60% of matches, but most first halves are low-scoring.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined averages suggest over 9.5 corners is slightly favored.
- Criciuma average 6.5 corners per match, Fortaleza average 6.5 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in their matches: 13.0.
- Recent H2H matches have produced 8-12 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar disciplinary records, and their combined average is just above the 4.5 line.
- Criciuma average 2.5 yellow cards per match, Fortaleza average 2.4.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.9.
- Recent matches have seen multiple bookings for both teams.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Criciuma has been highly reliable when projected to win

Criciuma has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 50.3%, but the actual fulfilment rate is 71%, exceeding the expected 3.5 wins. Notably, both missed predictions ended in draws rather than losses.

Recent evidence for Criciuma7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie B