Cuiaba MT3Nautico PE0

HT 1–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 28–12On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 06:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Cuiabá's strong home record and Náutico's confirmed absences (suspended Samuel and coach Hélio dos Anjos, plus injured Léo Índio) point to a tight, late-scoring home-leaning game, but the 1.25 double chance and 2.00 home win are already fully priced.

The clearest edge is Second Half Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 (82% model vs 71.4% implied), with Corners Over 9.5 at 1.65 a secondary lean; avoid the match winner, Cuiabá -1, and the short first-half Under lines.

Context

Cuiabá sit 11th on 40 points after 28 rounds, six points behind sixth place, while Náutico are 14th on 38 points, eight points clear of the relegation zone.
The two-point gap gives both teams a direct table incentive in round 29: Cuiabá need home points to stay in the G6 chase, and Náutico want to widen their cushion above the relegation places. The standings alone do not establish how either side will set up or how many chances will be created, so the match behaviour remains open despite the clear stakes.
- Cuiabá have 40 points after 28 rounds and are six points behind sixth place.
- Náutico have 38 points and are eight points clear of the relegation zone.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 06:38 · Europe/Bucharestge: Cuiabá's decisive Série B run-inge.globo.com · 16 Sep 2026ge: Léo Índio remains sidelinedge.globo.com · 18 Sep 2026
Cuiaba sits 12th in Serie B with 40 points from 28 games, a record built on 13 draws and only six defeats. The team has been leading at half-time in just 20% of its matches and trailing in 33%.
That pattern means Cuiaba often starts slowly and needs the second half to find a result. Nautico has trailed at half-time in 47% of its matches, so if Cuiaba can score first the away side may have to chase. The risk is that Cuiaba's habit of drawing limits its ability to turn control into wins.
- Cuiaba has drawn 13 of 28 Serie B matches, the most in the division.
- Cuiaba has led at half-time in only 20% of matches and trailed in 33%.
- Cuiaba's home record is five wins, seven draws and two defeats from 14 games.
Náutico head coach Hélio dos Anjos was sent off after the 3-3 draw with Operário, and Guilherme dos Anjos will lead the team against Cuiabá.
Náutico will make in-game communication and adjustments without their usual head coach on the touchline, with Guilherme dos Anjos in charge on matchday. The confirmed change affects how the away side manages the bench, though the evidence does not specify any alteration to the starting lineup or tactical plan.
- Hélio dos Anjos was sent off after the 3-3 draw with Operário.
- Náutico confirmed through local reporting that Guilherme dos Anjos will lead the team against Cuiabá.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 06:38 · Europe/Bucharestge: Náutico lose Hélio dos Anjos to suspensionge.globo.com · 17 Sep 2026Jornal do Commercio: Náutico suspensions for Cuiabájc.uol.com.br · 18 Sep 2026
Nautico Recife is 14th in Serie B with 38 points from 28 matches. The team has been trailing at half-time in 47% of its games and leading in only 20%.
That slow-start pattern matters because Nautico has lost six of 14 away games and conceded 21 goals on the road. If Cuiaba can take an early lead, Nautico's need to respond may open space for the home side. The counterweight is that Nautico has scored 19 away goals, so it can still threaten when chasing.
- Nautico has trailed at half-time in 47% of its Serie B matches this season.
- Nautico has led at half-time in only 20% of its matches.
- Nautico's away record is three wins, five draws and six defeats from 14 games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural home edge (Cuiabá only 2 home defeats all season, Náutico's negative away goal difference) plus stronger home motivation in the G6 chase makes the hosts the most likely single winner, though the draw-heavy profile of both sides caps confidence.
- Cuiabá home record 2026 Serie B: 5W-7D-2L, 14 goals for / 9 against in 14 home games (only 2 home defeats).
- Náutico away record: 3W-5D-6L, 19 scored / 21 conceded in 14 away games, and they have lost 3 of their last 5 on the road.
- Cuiabá last 5 (DWLWD) vs Náutico last 5 (DLWWD); Cuiabá average 1.2 goals for and 1.1 against, Náutico 1.1 for and 1.3 against.
- Table: Cuiabá 12th on 40 pts chasing the G6, Náutico 14th on 38 pts — a home win is the higher-value result for the hosts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCuiaba MTEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's extreme draw rate and near-unbeaten home record combined with Náutico's weak away win rate (3/14) make the home-or-draw double chance the safest result-side play.
- Cuiabá have drawn 13 of 28 league games (46%) and are unbeaten in 12 of 14 home matches (5W-7D).
- Náutico have drawn 8 of 28 and won only 3 of 14 away games, with 5 away draws.
- H2H last 5: the home side won 4 of 5 meetings, and the most recent (May 2026) was a 1-0 Náutico win at home — no away win in the sample.
- Cuiabá's last 5: D-W-L-W-D, including a 1-1 draw at Novorizontino; Náutico's last 5: D-L-W-W-D.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCuiaba MT or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging under 0.5 first-half goals and Cuiabá level at the break in nearly half their matches, a drawn first half is the modal outcome.
- Cuiabá were level at half-time in 47% of matches (halfTimeResult D in 7 of 15 recent games).
- Náutico were level at half-time in 6 of their last 15 matches and trailed at the break in 47%.
- Cuiabá average only 0.4 first-half goals; Náutico 0.3 — the lowest-scoring phase for both.
- H2H recent meetings were decided by single goals, with tight first halves.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Náutico's poor first-half scoring and high half-time trailing rate make it unlikely they lead at the break, supporting Cuiabá-or-draw in the first half.
- Cuiabá trailed at half-time in only 33% of matches and led or drew in 67%.
- Náutico trailed at half-time in 47% of matches and scored only 0.3 first-half goals on average.
- Cuiabá's last 5 first halves: 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1 — they avoided a half-time deficit in 3 of 5.
- Náutico's away form (3W-5D-6L) shows they rarely lead early on the road.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCuiaba MT or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's habit of drawing the first half before winning at home makes Draw/Cuiabá the most plausible HT-FT combination, though the low base rate keeps confidence low.
- Cuiabá were level at half-time in 47% of matches and went on to win several of those games.
- Cuiabá's last 5 half-time results: D, W, L, D, L — with two half-time draws converted into wins or draws.
- Náutico trailed at half-time in 47% of matches, often recovering or losing late.
- Cuiabá's home form (5W-7D-2L) shows they frequently break through after a tight first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Cuiaba MTEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are modest but both defences concede regularly (Náutico 1.3 against, Cuiabá 1.1 against), giving a slight edge to Yes, though the low-scoring H2H pattern keeps this close to a coin flip.
- Cuiabá average 1.2 goals for and 1.1 conceded; Náutico average 1.1 for and 1.3 conceded across the last 15 matches.
- Náutico have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches and conceded in 10 of 15.
- Cuiabá home games average 14 for / 9 against in 14 matches — both teams scoring is plausible but not dominant.
- Recent H2H: 1-0 and 2-0 home wins plus a 1-0 — low-scoring, which tempers the Yes case.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' goal averages sit near 2.3-2.4 combined and the recent H2H is historically low-scoring, so Under 2.5 is the better side of the line despite the draw-heavy, occasionally open profiles.
- Cuiabá average 1.2 goals for and 1.1 against (2.3 combined); Náutico 1.1 for and 1.3 against (2.4 combined).
- Cuiabá home games: 14 scored / 9 conceded in 14 — 1.64 goals per home match.
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 1, 2, 1, 1 and 3 goals — four of five under 2.5.
- Cuiabá's last 5 matches produced 2, 3, 2, 3 and 2 goals, with only one exceeding 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides are slow starters (0.3-0.4 first-half goals scored on average) and Náutico frequently trail at the break, making a low-scoring first half the strongest half-market angle.
- Cuiabá average 0.4 first-half goals for and 0.6 conceded; Náutico average 0.3 first-half goals for and 0.8 conceded.
- Cuiabá led at half-time in only 20% of matches and trailed in 33%; Náutico led at half-time in 20% and trailed in 47%.
- In Cuiabá's last 5, first-half scores were 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1 — only one first half reached 2 goals.
- Náutico's last 5 first halves: 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 0-1 and 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concentrate their scoring after half-time and their recent matches almost always produce at least one second-half goal, making Over 0.5 the highest-probability half market.
- Cuiabá score 0.8 of their 1.2 average goals after half-time; Náutico score 0.8 of their 1.1 after the break.
- Cuiabá have conceded 0.5 second-half goals on average and Náutico 0.5, so late goals arrive from both sides.
- In Cuiabá's last 5 matches, every second half produced at least one goal (1-0, 2-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0).
- Náutico's last 5 second halves produced 2, 1, 1, 1 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Náutico's consistent scoring output and Cuiabá's modest clean-sheet rate make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Cuiabá have kept clean sheets in only 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Náutico have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.1 goals.
- Cuiabá home record: 9 goals conceded in 14 home games, so clean sheets are not the norm.
- Náutico's away record shows 19 goals scored in 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNautico PE to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Náutico's reliable scoring record and Cuiabá's regular concession rate make a home win without conceding a low-probability outcome.
- Cuiabá have won to nil in only a small fraction of recent matches, with 1.1 goals conceded on average.
- Náutico have failed to score in only 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Cuiabá's home matches average 9 goals conceded across 14 games.
- Náutico's away attack has produced 19 goals in 14 away fixtures.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average above six corners per match and Náutico's high shot volume supports corner generation, making Over 8.5 the slightly favoured side.
- Cuiabá average 6.4 corners per match; Náutico average 6.1 — a combined 12.5 baseline.
- Cuiabá's last 5 corner counts: 7, 2, 2, 4, 9; Náutico's last 5: 4, 10, 5, 8, 3.
- Cuiabá home matches have produced double-digit corner totals in several recent games (13, 9, 11).
- Náutico generate high shot volumes (17.2 per match), which correlates with corner accumulation.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Náutico's high shot volume and on-target rate lift the combined baseline above the line, though Cuiabá's occasional low-output games keep confidence moderate.
- Cuiabá average 3.9 shots on target; Náutico average 5.1 — a combined 9.0 baseline.
- Náutico's last 5 shots on target: 6, 3, 4, 9, 2; Cuiabá's last 5: 2, 4, 0, 4, 7.
- Náutico average 17.2 total shots per match, the higher-volume attack in this fixture.
- Cuiabá's home matches have produced 5-7 shots on target in several recent games.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Náutico's high foul and card averages combined with the competitive stakes of a two-point table gap point to a card count above the line.
- Náutico average 16.5 fouls and 2.7 yellow cards per match; Cuiabá average 13.2 fouls and 1.8 yellows.
- Náutico's last 5 matches produced card counts of 2, 2, 2, 2 and 1 yellows plus a red in one game.
- Cuiabá's last 5 produced 3, 1, 0, 1 and 1 yellows, with a red card in one match.
- Both sides sit in a tight table battle (40 vs 38 points), a context that typically raises foul and card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% vs our 44% estimate — the 2.00 price already reflects the home edge and offers no value cushion.

Prediction history

Cuiaba MT has been moderately reliable when projected to win, with recent home form supporting the current 44% projection

Cuiaba MT fulfilled 2 of 4 win projections, a 50% rate that slightly exceeded the 1.7 expected from an average estimated probability of 43.5%. The two misses were one draw and one loss, while both wins came with the subject scoring at least once. At home, Cuiaba MT fulfilled 1 of 2 win projections, and the current 44% probability sits within the historical range of 42% to 45%.

Recent evidence for Cuiaba MT4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·Serie B