All Boys0CA San Telmo1

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:06 · Europe/Bucharest

All Boys' home defensive record and San Telmo's away struggles point to a low-scoring game, with a goalless first half highly likely.

The best value is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.15, where our model sees a 65% probability versus the market's 46.5%. Avoid backing All Boys to win outright at 1.70, as their high draw rate makes the price unattractive.

Context

All Boys are 13th in the Primera Nacional with 31 points from 28 matches. Their home form has been their main strength.
They have won 4 and drawn 10 of 14 home games, conceding only 5 goals. San Telmo have won just 1 of 14 away matches, so All Boys' defensive solidity at home could frustrate the visitors.
- All Boys home record: 4 wins, 10 draws, 0 losses in 14 matches.
- All Boys have conceded only 5 goals at home this season.
- San Telmo away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 7 losses in 14 matches.
San Telmo are in the relegation places in the Primera Nacional, sitting 17th with 28 points from 28 matches.
They are level on points with the relegation line, so every match is important. Their away form is poor, but the need for points could lead them to take more risks against All Boys.
- San Telmo rank 17th with 28 points, equal to the relegation line rank.
- San Telmo away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 7 losses, with only 8 goals scored.
All Boys’ latest confirmed XI from the 5 September win over Acassuso included Carrizo, Zafarana, Tabares, Grana, Coronel, Ramírez, Turraca, Delgado, Calone, Cano and Barrientos, with Nardozza making five substitutions.
That selection is the closest available guide to the defensive spine and attacking combinations All Boys may retain. The five substitutions show Nardozza used his bench, but the starting group remains the most direct reference for how the home side could set up.
- All Boys officially listed Nicolás Carrizo, Iván Zafarana, Alejo Tabares, Hernán Grana, Maximiliano Coronel, Gabriel Ramírez, Gustavo Turraca, Ulises Delgado, Thiago Calone, Lucas Cano and Nicolás Barrientos as starters against Acassuso on 5 September.
- The same official report recorded five All Boys substitutions in the 1-0 win and named Fabián Nardozza as coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:05 · Europe/BucharestAll Boys: win at Acassusocaallboys.com.ar · 5 Sep 2026
San Telmo's away scoring has been a major weakness in the Primera Nacional.
They average 0.57 goals per away game, while All Boys concede 0.36 goals per home game. This mismatch suggests a low-scoring match, with San Telmo needing to improve sharply to break through.
- San Telmo away goals: 8 in 14 matches (0.57 per game).
- All Boys home goals conceded: 5 in 14 matches (0.36 per game).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
All Boys' strong home defensive record and San Telmo's poor away form give the home side a clear edge, though All Boys' high draw rate tempers confidence.
- All Boys are unbeaten at home this season: 4 wins, 10 draws, 0 losses in 14 home matches.
- All Boys have conceded only 5 goals in 14 home matches (0.36 per game).
- San Telmo have won only 1 of 14 away matches, with 6 draws and 7 losses.
- San Telmo have scored only 8 goals in 14 away matches (0.57 per game).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAll BoysEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' unbeaten home record and San Telmo's poor away results make the home side not losing highly likely.
- All Boys have not lost at home in 14 matches (4 wins, 10 draws).
- San Telmo have lost 7 of 14 away matches.
- All Boys have drawn 10 of 14 home matches (71%).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAll Boys or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at half-time, with low first-half scoring, making a draw at the break likely.
- All Boys have drawn at half-time in 13 of 15 recent matches.
- San Telmo have drawn at half-time in 7 of 15 recent matches.
- All Boys average 0.2 first-half goals, San Telmo 0.1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
All Boys' high draw rate at home and tendency to be level at half-time make a draw/draw outcome plausible.
- All Boys have drawn 10 of 14 home matches (71%).
- All Boys have drawn at half-time in 13 of 15 recent matches.
- San Telmo have drawn 6 of 14 away matches (43%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys rarely lead at half-time, so San Telmo or a draw at the break is slightly more likely.
- All Boys have led at half-time in only 2 of 15 recent matches.
- San Telmo have trailed at half-time in 7 of 15 recent matches.
- All Boys average 0.2 first-half goals, San Telmo 0.1.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CA San TelmoEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially All Boys at home, making a low-scoring game likely.
- All Boys' home matches average 1.0 total goals (9 scored, 5 conceded in 14 games).
- San Telmo's away matches average 1.86 total goals (8 scored, 18 conceded in 14 games).
- All Boys' last 15 matches average 1.4 total goals (0.5 scored, 0.9 conceded).
- San Telmo's last 15 matches average 2.0 total goals (0.7 scored, 1.3 conceded).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' strong home defense and San Telmo's inconsistent away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- All Boys have kept clean sheets in 9 of 14 home matches (64%).
- San Telmo have failed to score in 6 of 14 away matches (43%).
- All Boys have scored in 9 of 14 home matches (64%).
- San Telmo have kept clean sheets in 4 of 14 away matches (29%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' home defensive solidity and San Telmo's away scoring struggles make a home clean sheet likely.
- All Boys have kept clean sheets in 9 of 14 home matches (64%).
- San Telmo have failed to score in 6 of 14 away matches (43%).
- All Boys conceded only 5 goals in 14 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCA San Telmo not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, making a goalless first half likely.
- All Boys average 0.2 first-half goals per match in their last 15 games.
- San Telmo average 0.1 first-half goals per match in their last 15 games.
- All Boys have been level at half-time in 13 of 15 recent matches.
- San Telmo have been level at half-time in 7 of 15 recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, making at least one goal after the break likely.
- All Boys average 0.3 second-half goals per match (0.5 total - 0.2 first half).
- San Telmo average 0.6 second-half goals per match (0.7 total - 0.1 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 0.9 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 59% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

All Boys has been highly reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

All Boys has fulfilled 6 of 7 Under 2.5 predictions, a strong 86% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 77%, with an expected 5.4 fulfilled predictions, so actual results slightly exceeded expectation. The current prediction of 75% sits within the historical range of 70-80%, and the only miss came at 80% probability in an away match.

Recent evidence for All Boys7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional