CA San Telmo1CA San Miguel0

HT 0–0Sun 2 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 11:31 · Europe/Bucharest

A historically low-scoring, draw-heavy fixture meets two teams in poor attacking form.

The standout value lies in under 0.5 first-half goals, where a +17-point edge reflects both sides' dreadful starts. The full-time under 2.5 goals is highly likely but offers minimal value, while the draw is a solid probability play with a slim edge.

Context

San Miguel's official site announced Módolo as new coach in mid-July 2026.
- This match falls within his opening weeks, so his system is still being implemented.
- The previous H2H pattern of low-scoring draws may be less reliable if Módolo changes the team's style.
6 draws in last 9 H2H meetings.
- 8 of last 9 H2H matches had under 2.5 goals.
- The last meeting (March 2026) was a 1-1 draw.
San Telmo: 0.6 goals per game in last 15, failing to score in 7 of those.
- San Miguel: 0.7 goals per game in last 15, failing to score in 5 of those.
- San Telmo lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring only 3 goals in that span.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Miguel's exceptional draw rate away from home (70%) and the historically draw-heavy H2H (67% draws) point to a stalemate as the most probable outcome.
- H2H: 6 of last 9 meetings ended in draws, including the most recent 1-1 in March 2026.
- San Telmo: 8 draws in 21 league matches (38%); home record 4W-2D-5L.
- San Miguel: 11 draws in 21 league matches (52%); away record 1W-7D-2L.
- San Miguel away: 7 draws in 10 away games, showing a strong tendency to share points on the road.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Telmo's poor home form (5 losses in 11) and San Miguel's resilience on the road (only 2 away losses) make a home win unlikely, favoring the double chance for the away side.
- San Telmo home: lost 5 of 11 home games (45% loss rate).
- San Miguel away: lost only 2 of 10 away games (20% loss rate).
- San Telmo form: LLLWD in last 5, with 3 losses.
- San Miguel form: DLDWD in last 5, with only 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or CA San MiguelEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of first-half draws for both teams, especially at San Telmo's home, supports a draw at the break.
- San Telmo: 10 of last 15 matches were level at half-time (67%).
- San Miguel: 9 of last 15 matches were level at half-time (60%).
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were draws at half-time.
- San Telmo home: 7 of 11 home games were draws at half-time (64%).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The tendency for both teams to be involved in draws, combined with slow starts, gives a moderate chance of a draw at both intervals, though confidence is low due to the specific nature of the bet.
- San Telmo: 6 of 15 matches were draws at both half-time and full-time (40%).
- San Miguel: 5 of 15 matches were draws at both half-time and full-time (33%).
- H2H: 2 of last 5 meetings were draws at both half-time and full-time.
- Both teams have high draw rates overall: San Telmo 38%, San Miguel 52%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The historically low-scoring H2H pattern combined with both teams' poor attacking output (under 0.7 goals per game each) strongly supports under 2.5 goals.
- H2H: 8 of last 9 meetings finished under 2.5 goals, including the most recent 1-1 draw in March 2026.
- San Telmo: last 15 matches average 1.3 total goals (0.6 scored, 0.7 conceded); 12 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- San Miguel: last 15 matches average 1.8 total goals (0.7 scored, 1.1 conceded); 11 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have low scoring rates: San Telmo 0.6 goals per game, San Miguel 0.7 goals per game over last 15.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score consistently, and the H2H trend of low-scoring affairs with frequent clean sheets makes both teams scoring unlikely.
- San Telmo: failed to score in 7 of last 15 matches; scored only 0.6 goals per game.
- San Miguel: failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches; scored only 0.7 goals per game.
- H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings saw at least one team fail to score.
- San Telmo home: scored in 7 of 11 home games but only 11 goals total; San Miguel away: scored in 6 of 10 away games but only 8 goals total.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are extremely slow starters, averaging only 0.3 first-half goals each, making a goalless first half highly probable.
- San Telmo: first-half goals average 0.3 per game; 10 of last 15 matches had 0 first-half goals.
- San Miguel: first-half goals average 0.3 per game; 9 of last 15 matches had 0 first-half goals.
- H2H: last meeting was 0-0 at half-time; 3 of last 5 H2H had 0 first-half goals.
- San Telmo home: only 4 first-half goals in 11 home games (0.36 per game).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low second-half scoring rates (under 0.5 goals each) make it unlikely the second half will produce more than one goal.
- San Telmo: second-half goals average 0.3 per game (0.6 total - 0.3 first half).
- San Miguel: second-half goals average 0.4 per game (0.7 total - 0.3 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 0.7 goals per game.
- H2H: last 5 meetings had only 3 second-half goals total (0.6 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected low-scoring, cautious match, corner count is likely to be below average, but the lack of corner data makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches (all null).
- League average corners in Primera Nacional typically range 8-10 per game.
- Low-scoring, defensive matches tend to produce fewer corners.
- No specific corner trends available; estimate based on match style.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 90.9% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of ~85%; odds too short to justify the risk.

Prediction history

CA San Telmo under 2.5 goals has been unreliable recently

In the last 6 matches where CA San Telmo was projected to under 2.5 goals, only 3 were fulfilled. The average estimated probability was 70.8%, expecting about 4.3 fulfilled, but actual fulfilled fell short. Notably, all three missed predictions occurred away from home, where only 1 of 3 under 2.5 projections succeeded.

Recent evidence for CA San Telmo6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional