Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

All Boys1Almirante Brown1

HT 0–1Sat 11 Jul 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jul 2026, 08:48 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation-threatened All Boys, unbeaten at home but goal-shy, host a Reducido-chasing Almirante Brown in a match likely to be tight and low-scoring.

The standout betting edge is first-half under 0.5 goals at 1.91, with a +7.6-point value gap, while the draw (2.40) is the most probable outcome but offers no edge.

Context

All Boys are 14th in Zone A with 20 points, just two points above 17th place.
- Coach Mauricio Giganti confirmed a full squad and the club's official preview emphasized the need to distance themselves from relegation.
Almirante Brown are 6th in Zone A with 29 points, inside the Reducido places.
- They were as low as 17th after matchday 8, so this match carries playoff-protection stakes.
All Boys home record: 3 wins, 6 draws, 0 losses in 9 matches.
- They have scored only 6 goals in 9 home games, with 6 clean sheets.
Almirante Brown won 2-1 at home on 22 February 2026.
- The last five H2H meetings have all been won by the home side, with no draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
All Boys are unbeaten at home with 6 draws in 9 games, while Almirante Brown struggle away, making a draw the most likely outcome given the high stakes for both sides.
- All Boys home record: 3W-6D-0L in 9 matches, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Almirante Brown away record: 2W-3D-4L in 9 matches, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded.
- All Boys last 5 matches: D-W-L-D-D, with 3 draws and only 1 win.
- Almirante Brown last 5 matches: W-W-W-L-D, but away form is weaker (only 2 wins in 9 away games).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With All Boys' strong home resilience and Almirante's inconsistent away form, the home side is very likely to avoid defeat, making All Boys or Draw a high-confidence pick.
- All Boys have not lost at home this season (3W-6D-0L).
- Almirante Brown have lost 4 of 9 away matches.
- All Boys are under relegation pressure and will fight to avoid defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAll Boys or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into halftime level, with All Boys especially prone to first-half draws at home, making a halftime draw the most likely outcome.
- All Boys have drawn at halftime in 12 of 15 recent matches.
- Almirante Brown have drawn at halftime in 9 of 15 recent matches.
- All Boys home halftime results: 7 draws in 9 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not the most common outcome, the combination of All Boys' home draw tendency and Almirante's away struggles makes a Draw/Draw double a plausible low-probability pick.
- All Boys have drawn at halftime and fulltime in 3 of 9 home matches.
- Almirante Brown have drawn at halftime and fulltime in 2 of 9 away matches.
- The match context suggests a tight, low-scoring affair.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles, especially All Boys at home and Almirante away, making Under 2.5 goals highly probable.
- All Boys home matches average 1.0 total goals (6 scored, 3 conceded in 9 games).
- Almirante Brown away matches average 1.11 total goals (4 scored, 6 conceded in 9 games).
- All Boys last 15 matches: 0.5 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game.
- Almirante Brown last 15 matches: 0.7 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' strong home defense and Almirante's away scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score, likely resulting in a 'No' for both teams to score.
- All Boys have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 home matches.
- Almirante Brown have failed to score in 5 of 9 away matches.
- All Boys average only 0.5 goals per game overall, but at home they score 0.67 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' home defensive record is excellent, and Almirante's away attack is weak, giving a solid chance for a home clean sheet.
- All Boys have kept a clean sheet in 6 of 9 home matches.
- Almirante Brown have scored only 4 goals in 9 away matches.
- All Boys conceded only 3 goals at home all season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlmirante Brown not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys rarely score multiple goals at home, and Almirante's away defense is decent, making Under 1.5 home goals very likely.
- All Boys have scored 6 goals in 9 home matches (0.67 per game).
- All Boys have scored more than 1 goal in only 1 of 9 home matches.
- Almirante Brown concede 0.67 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAll Boys under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almirante Brown's away scoring is extremely low, and All Boys' home defense is stingy, making it highly unlikely Almirante score more than once.
- Almirante Brown have scored 4 goals in 9 away matches (0.44 per game).
- Almirante have scored more than 1 goal in only 1 away match this season.
- All Boys concede only 0.33 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlmirante Brown under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, especially All Boys at home and Almirante away, making a goalless first half a strong possibility.
- All Boys average 0.1 first-half goals per game overall, with 0 first-half goals in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Almirante Brown average 0.3 first-half goals per game, but only 0.11 first-half goals away (1 goal in 9 away first halves).
- All Boys home first-half record: 0 goals in 6 of 9 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low overall scoring patterns, the second half is unlikely to see more than one goal, especially with both teams' defensive focus.
- All Boys home matches average 0.67 second-half goals (6 total goals in 9 home games, mostly after halftime).
- Almirante Brown away matches average 0.67 second-half goals.
- Combined, second-half goals in these fixtures rarely exceed 1.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected defensive, low-event nature of the match, corners are likely to be limited, though confidence is low due to missing corner data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Low-scoring, defensive matches typically produce fewer corners.
- Both teams average 0 corners in the provided data, but this is likely due to missing stats.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-1Almirante BrownvAll BoysFeb 22, 2026PRI

W2-1All BoysvAlmirante BrownSep 26, 2023PRI

L3-0Almirante BrownvAll BoysMay 13, 2023PRI

D2-2Almirante BrownvAll BoysApr 17, 2022PRI

W3-1All BoysvAlmirante BrownFeb 9, 2019PRI

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	All Boys	19	4	8	7	12-19	20	DWLDD
6	Almirante Brown Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	19	8	5	6	14-12	29	WWWLD

9pt gap between teams

Recent Form

All Boys

D1-1Atletico MitreJul 5PRI

W1-0Defensores De BelgranoJun 21PRI

L1-2CA EstudiantesJun 14PRI

D1-1Racing CordobaJun 7PRI

D0-0Los AndesMay 30PRI

L0-4Godoy CruzMay 24PRI

W1-0Deportivo MoronMay 18PRI

L2-3Colon Santa FeMay 10PRI

D1-1San MiguelApr 30PRI

L0-1San TelmoApr 25PRI

D0-0AcassusoApr 18PRI

L0-2Chaco For EverApr 12PRI

D0-0Ferro Carril OesteApr 4PRI

D0-0Nueva ChicagoMar 29PRI

L0-1Central NorteMar 22PRI

Almirante Brown

W1-0Los AndesJul 4PRI

W3-1Atletico MitreJun 21PRI

W1-0Godoy CruzJun 14PRI

L0-1Deportivo MoronJun 7PRI

D1-1Colon Santa FeMay 30PRI

L0-1San MiguelMay 23PRI

D0-0San TelmoMay 16PRI

D0-0AcassusoMay 10PRI

W1-0Chaco For EverMay 3PRI

W1-0Ferro Carril OesteApr 28PRI

W1-0Central NorteApr 19PRI

L1-2Deportivo MadrynApr 12PRI

L0-2Defensores De BelgranoApr 5PRI

L0-1Tristan SuarezMar 28PRI

D0-0Ciudad de BolívarMar 21PRI

Squad & Injuries

All Boys

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Almirante Brown

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Under 0.5

All Boys or Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Almirante Brown not to score

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

All Boys

Almirante Brown

Squad & Injuries

All Boys

Almirante Brown