Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Ferro Carril Oeste1All Boys0

HT 0–0Mon 24 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–0100%

Edges9–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferro are strong favourites at home against a poor-travelling All Boys side, but the odds offer little value.

The only positive edge is the first-half draw at 2.00, while goals markets are heavily juiced towards unders. Expect a low-scoring game, but the market has already priced in most of the likely outcomes.

Context

All Boys failed to score in 8 of 12 away matches.
- They average 0.5 goals per away game.
- Ferro kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
Ferro home record: 7W 1D 4L.
- They have lost 4 home games this season.
- Recent home results include a 1-3 loss to Godoy Cruz.
Last two H2H meetings: 0-0 (Apr 2026) and 0-0 (Aug 2025).
- Four of seven historical meetings at Ferro have been draws.
- All Boys lead the 18-match series with 7 wins to Ferro's 3.
All Boys away record: 1W 3D 8L.
- They have lost 8 of 12 away matches.
- Their only away win came against Defensores De Belgrano in June.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Ferro's superior league position and strong home form, combined with All Boys' poor away record, give the hosts a clear edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ferro Carril Oeste or Draw

1.13fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Ferro's historical home dominance over All Boys and All Boys' dreadful away form make a Ferro win or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Recent H2H low-scoring pattern and All Boys' weak attack support a low total goals outcome.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

All Boys' poor scoring record, especially away, makes it unlikely both teams will score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and recent H2H first halves have been goalless.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

All Boys' low second-half scoring and Ferro's moderate second-half output suggest a low-scoring second half.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

All Boys not to score

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Ferro's solid home defense and All Boys' away scoring struggles make a home clean sheet likely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ferro Carril Oeste to score

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

All Boys' poor away defensive record and Ferro's consistent home scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's superior league position and strong home form, combined with All Boys' poor away record, give the hosts a clear edge.
- Ferro are 1st with 49 points, 22 ahead of All Boys (14th, 27 points).
- Ferro home record: 7W 1D 4L; All Boys away record: 1W 3D 8L.
- Ferro last 5 form: WWLLW; All Boys last 5: WDLDD.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFerro Carril OesteEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's historical home dominance over All Boys and All Boys' dreadful away form make a Ferro win or draw highly likely.
- Ferro have lost only once in seven home meetings against All Boys.
- All Boys have won only 1 of 12 away matches this season.
- Ferro home win/draw rate: 8 of 12 (67%).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFerro Carril Oeste or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half leading percentages, and recent H2H first halves ended level.
- Ferro led at half-time in only 33% of matches; All Boys led in 13%.
- All Boys drew at half-time in 60% of matches.
- Last two H2H meetings were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Ferro win is plausible given Ferro's second-half strength and All Boys' tendency to draw.
- Ferro have won 7 of 12 home matches, often after a level first half.
- All Boys have drawn 12 of 25 matches overall.
- Ferro's last 5 home matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / Ferro Carril OesteEstimated chance25%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H low-scoring pattern and All Boys' weak attack support a low total goals outcome.
- Last two H2H meetings ended 0-0.
- All Boys average 0.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Ferro average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' poor scoring record, especially away, makes it unlikely both teams will score.
- All Boys have failed to score in 12 of 25 matches this season.
- All Boys away: 6 goals in 12 matches (0.5 per game).
- Ferro kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and recent H2H first halves have been goalless.
- Ferro average 0.6 first-half goals; All Boys average 0.2 first-half goals.
- All Boys have scored only 5 first-half goals in 25 matches.
- Last two H2H meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' low second-half scoring and Ferro's moderate second-half output suggest a low-scoring second half.
- Ferro average 1.0 second-half goals; All Boys average 0.5 second-half goals.
- All Boys have scored only 10 second-half goals in 25 matches.
- Ferro concede 0.6 second-half goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's solid home defense and All Boys' away scoring struggles make a home clean sheet likely.
- Ferro kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- All Boys failed to score in 8 of 12 away matches.
- All Boys average 0.5 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAll Boys not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' poor away defensive record and Ferro's consistent home scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- All Boys have kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 away matches.
- Ferro have scored in 10 of 12 home matches.
- Ferro average 1.25 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFerro Carril Oeste to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferro's ability to win without conceding at home, combined with All Boys' away scoring woes, supports a win to nil.
- Ferro won 3 of last 5 home matches, all with clean sheets.
- All Boys failed to score in 8 of 12 away matches.
- Ferro home clean sheet rate: 42%.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected low-scoring, low-possession game, total corners are likely to be below average.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches.
- Both teams have low possession averages (0% reported).
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Ferro Carril Oeste has been reliable when projected to win

Ferro Carril Oeste has fulfilled 4 of 6 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 49.2%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so they have exceeded expectation. Their two missed predictions both came as losses, and they have been stronger at home with 3 of 4 fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Ferro Carril Oeste6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional