Primera NacionalFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Deportivo Moron are clear favourites based on league position and head-to-head, but their poor away form makes the outright win risky.
The best value lies in the double chance (Moron or Draw) at 1.38 and both teams to score at 2.50, where the model sees a 15-point edge. Avoid the match winner and first-half result markets due to volatility and insufficient edge.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 72.5% · BetBugs 75%
San Telmo have lost 5 of their last 6 matches and Deportivo Moron have lost only 2 of their last 10, making a home win unlikely.
Market 40% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities in relevant splits, and H2H often features goals from both sides.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 80% · Market 82%
San Telmo led at half-time in only 7% of matches and have not led at the break in any of their last 5 home games, making a home half-time lead very unlikely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |  CA San Telmo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 18-27 | 23 |
| 2 |  Deportivo MoronPromotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs) | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 39-22 | 44 |