Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

All Boys1CA Nueva Chicago0

HT 1–0Mon 17 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 08:58 · Europe/Bucharest

This clásico is overwhelmingly likely to be low-scoring, with six of the last seven H2Hs under 2.5 goals and both teams averaging under 1.0 goals per game.

The best value is Under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.00 (model edge +10 points), while the draw is the most probable match outcome but offers no betting value. Avoid Under 1.5 goals and any handicap requiring All Boys to win by two or more.

Context

All Boys have 3 wins and 9 draws in 12 home matches.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets at home, conceding only 5 goals.
- Their last 5 matches overall: D, L, D, D, D.
Nueva Chicago have scored only 6 goals in 11 away matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of those 11 away games.
- They have lost 7 away matches this season.
Last 7 H2H: 6 under 2.5 goals.
- Last 7 H2H: 6 with at least one team failing to score.
- Most recent H2H (March 2026): 0-0 draw.
All Boys average 0.1 first-half goals per game.
- Nueva Chicago average 0.2 first-half goals per game.
- Last H2H was 0-0 at half time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Six of the last seven H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals, and both teams average under 1.0 goals scored per game overall.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams struggle to score, especially All Boys at home and Nueva Chicago away, making a clean sheet likely.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.15fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

The second half is likely to remain tight given both teams' low scoring rates and the derby's cautious nature.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

CA Nueva Chicago not to score

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

All Boys' solid home defense and Nueva Chicago's away scoring struggles support a home clean sheet.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

All Boys or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

All Boys are unbeaten in 12 home matches and Nueva Chicago have lost 7 of 11 away, making the home side avoiding defeat highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
All Boys' extreme draw tendency at home and their recent form make a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- All Boys home: 9 draws in 12 matches
- Nueva Chicago away: 1 draw in 11 matches
- H2H: 2 draws in last 5 meetings
- All Boys form: DLDDD (4 draws in last 5)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' strong home record and Nueva Chicago's poor away form make the home side avoiding defeat highly probable.
- All Boys home: unbeaten in 12 matches (3W, 9D)
- Nueva Chicago away: 7 losses in 11 matches
- H2H: All Boys unbeaten in last 3 home H2Hs
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAll Boys or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at half time, and the derby intensity often leads to a cautious start.
- All Boys: 7 leading at half time, 27 trailing in 15 matches (mostly level)
- Nueva Chicago: 7 leading, 33 trailing in 15 matches (mostly level)
- H2H: 0-0 at half time in last meeting
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is plausible given All Boys' draw-heavy home record, but low confidence due to Nueva Chicago's away losses.
- All Boys home: 9 draws in 12 matches
- Nueva Chicago away: 1 draw in 11 matches
- H2H: 2 draws in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The clásico H2H pattern and both teams' low scoring outputs strongly support a low-scoring match.
- H2H: 6 of last 7 meetings under 2.5 goals
- All Boys home: 8 goals for, 5 against in 12 matches (1.08 total goals per game)
- Nueva Chicago away: 6 goals for, 14 against in 11 matches (1.82 total goals per game)
- Both teams average under 1.0 goals scored per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score, especially All Boys at home and Nueva Chicago away, making a clean sheet likely.
- H2H: 6 of last 7 meetings had at least one team fail to score
- All Boys home: 5 goals conceded in 12 matches, 7 clean sheets
- Nueva Chicago away: 6 goals scored in 11 matches, 5 times failed to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have extremely low first-half scoring rates, suggesting a goalless opening period.
- All Boys: 0.1 first half goals per game average
- Nueva Chicago: 0.2 first half goals per game average
- H2H: 0-0 at half time in last meeting
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to remain tight given both teams' low scoring rates and the derby's cautious nature.
- All Boys: 0.6 second half goals per game average
- Nueva Chicago: 0.5 second half goals per game average
- H2H: 5 of last 7 meetings had 1 or fewer second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
All Boys' solid home defense and Nueva Chicago's away scoring struggles support a home clean sheet.
- All Boys home: 5 goals conceded in 12 matches, 7 clean sheets
- Nueva Chicago away: 6 goals scored in 11 matches, 5 times failed to score
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Nueva Chicago not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
All Boys' low home scoring output gives Nueva Chicago a chance for a clean sheet, but their away defensive record is poor.
- All Boys home: 8 goals scored in 12 matches, 5 times failed to score
- Nueva Chicago away: 14 goals conceded in 11 matches, 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAll Boys not to scoreEstimated chance40%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, we rely on the low-scoring pattern to infer a modest corner count, but confidence is low.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners
- Derby matches can be cagey with limited attacking play
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate for Under 2.5; the 1.5 line is too aggressive for a derby that could still produce 2 goals.

Prediction history

All Boys has been highly reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

All Boys has fulfilled 6 of 7 Under 2.5 predictions, a strong 86% rate. The average estimated probability was 77%, with an expected 5.4 fulfilled predictions, so they have slightly outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 75% sits within the historical range of 70-80%, and they have been perfect at home with 3 of 3 fulfilled.

Recent evidence for All Boys7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional