Notts County1Stockport County1

HT 1–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 26%–74%ShotsShots 7–18On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 11:56 · Europe/Bucharest

League leaders Stockport, with one goal conceded in five league games, visit a Notts County side beaten in four of their last five league games but with four wins in seven at home.

A tight, low-scoring game with the visitors edging it is the likeliest shape. A Stockport win at 1.57 is short; Notts County or draw at 2.4, the half-time draw at 2.4, a Notts win at 5.25 and both teams not to score at 1.91 all offer something.

Context

Three days earlier Notts lost 2-0 at Wycombe without a shot on target, so a clean sheet against a Wednesday side that had won 5-0 in its previous league game is a reversal rather than a trend. It matters here because Stockport hold the ball for long spells and pin sides back, so Notts' capacity to defend their own box is the condition that keeps them in the game. The limitation is sample: one disciplined afternoon against an opponent that finished with ten men is thin evidence that the shape has been fixed.
- Notts County beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 at Meadow Lane on 20 October 2026.
- It was Notts County's first clean sheet of the League One season.
- The win took Notts out of the League One relegation zone.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Stockport's rise from the National League was built by Dave Challinor, now the club's former manager, so the current top-of-the-table run belongs to McNulty and an inherited squad rather than to a rebuild. The concrete marker is defensive: one goal conceded across five league games from a side that also dominates possession. That record is the obstacle facing a Notts team that has just kept its first clean sheet. The caveat is that the timing and terms of the handover are not set out in the material available, so the change reads as continuity and should not be treated as a measurable swing either way.
- Jimmy McNulty is Stockport County's head coach and the club were the new League One leaders after a 2-0 win at Doncaster Rovers on 20 October 2026.
- County have conceded one goal in their last five league games.
- Dave Challinor, who managed the club's climb from non-league, is now described as their former boss.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Finneran arrives from Newcastle's academy rather than Notts' own recruitment, and whether he stays for the whole campaign shapes a midfield that has been reworked through an injury-hit autumn. The anchor is concrete: an 18-year-old scoring in a 2-1 home defeat to Oxford United on 10 October, in a side that has struggled badly for goals. For this fixture the significance is narrow — he is one of the options Paterson is choosing from, and a settled loan makes that group more predictable rather than better. Parent-club interest in reassessing the arrangement over the winter is unresolved, so nothing follows about Saturday's selection.
- Notts want Rory Finneran's loan from Newcastle to run for the full season rather than end early.
- The 18-year-old's strong start included a goal in the 2-1 home defeat to Oxford United on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:54 · Europe/BucharestNotts County Newsnottscountynews.co.uk · 13 Oct 2026
County named Gordon as an injury absentee for the Bromley game on 17 October, and the back line has been altered rather than fixed since, with Mamadou Jobe brought in. The wider number is one goal conceded in five league games, so whoever plays at Meadow Lane steps into a functioning unit rather than a patched one. That makes the defensive selection a depth question rather than a weakness. What is unresolved is whether Gordon is available again, because his return has not been established in anything since the Bromley team sheet.
- Kyron Gordon missed Stockport's 17 October 2026 home win over Bromley through injury.
- Mamadou Jobe came into the side for that game.
To watchSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stockport's away scoring and defensive record are clearly stronger than Notts' recent league form.
- Stockport have won four of six away matches, scoring 1.83 and conceding 0.50 per game.
- Stockport are top with 22 points and have won five of their last six competitive matches.
- Notts have lost four of their last five league games.
- Stockport have kept four clean sheets in six away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a half-time draw the most likely outcome.
- Stockport have not conceded a first-half goal in six away matches.
- Notts average 0.43 first-half goals at home.
- Stockport average 0.83 first-half goals away.
- Notts have conceded 0.29 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stockport score steadily after half-time and Notts concede at home, giving the visitors a slight second-half edge.
- Stockport average 1.00 second-half goals away.
- Stockport have scored in the second half in four of their last six matches.
- Notts concede 0.71 second-half goals at home.
- Notts average 1.43 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's strong away defence and Notts' mixed home scoring make a tight draw plausible. Stockport's away scoring and defensive record are clearly stronger than Notts' recent league form.
- Notts have drawn four of 12 competitive matches this season.
- Stockport have drawn one of six away matches.
- Stockport have won four of six away matches, scoring 1.83 and conceding 0.50 per game.
- Stockport are top with 22 points and have won five of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Stockport CountyEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a half-time draw the most likely outcome. Stockport's away first-half scoring and clean-sheet record give them the better chance of a half-time lead.
- Stockport have not conceded a first-half goal in six away matches.
- Notts average 0.43 first-half goals at home.
- Stockport average 0.83 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Stockport CountyEstimated chance84%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Stockport's low-scoring away games and clean-sheet record point to under 2.5.
- Stockport away matches average 2.33 total goals.
- Stockport have kept four clean sheets in six away matches.
- Notts home matches average 2.86 total goals but Stockport concede only 0.50 away.
- Five of Stockport's last six matches had two or fewer goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Stockport's away defence makes a clean sheet for at least one side more likely than both scoring.
- Stockport have four clean sheets in six away matches and concede 0.50 per game.
- Notts failed to score in three of 12 competitive matches.
- Stockport failed to score in two of six away matches.
- Stockport have conceded only three goals in six away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's away defence is strong enough to keep Notts below two goals.
- Notts average 1.86 goals at home.
- Stockport concede 0.50 goals per away match.
- Stockport have kept four clean sheets in six away matches.
- Notts have failed to score in three of 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNotts County under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's away scoring is good but not so high that two goals should be expected, and Notts kept a clean sheet last time at home.
- Stockport have failed to score in two of six away matches.
- Notts kept a clean sheet in their last home match.
- Notts concede 1.00 goal per home match.
- Stockport average 1.83 goals away.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonStockport County under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides do most of their scoring after half-time, so two or more second-half goals is plausible.
- Notts home second-half goals average 1.43 for and 0.71 against.
- Stockport away second-half goals average 1.00 for and 0.50 against.
- Notts have scored in the second half in four of their last six matches.
- Stockport have scored in the second half in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
The combined home and away corner rates sit close to the line, with Stockport's opponents often limited.
- Notts average 4.86 corners at home.
- Stockport average 5.67 corners away.
- Notts concede 3.0 corners at home.
- Stockport concede 3.5 corners away.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Each side's opponent shot numbers point to a lower combined total than the line.
- Stockport allow 7.2 shots away.
- Notts allow 8.6 shots at home.
- Notts average 16.0 shots at home but face a strong away defence.
- Stockport average 14.3 shots away but face a home side allowing 8.6.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 29.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The defensive shot-on-target numbers for both sides are low, pointing under 9.5.
- Stockport allow 2.2 shots on target away.
- Notts allow 2.6 shots on target at home.
- Notts average 4.86 shots on target at home.
- Stockport average 4.67 shots on target away.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's low card count makes a total under 3.5 more likely.
- Notts average 2.57 yellow cards at home.
- Stockport average 0.83 yellow cards away.
- Stockport average 1.0 yellow cards overall.
- Notts' opponents average 2.29 yellow cards at home.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%