EFL TrophyFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Notts County5Nottingham Forest U211

HT 1–0Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 27–11On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 10–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest

A League One side against Forest's under-21s, with Notts County chasing a second EFL Trophy group win at Meadow Lane.

Notts County are the more likely winners, but the 1.91 home price asks for more than their form supports. Three prices carry potential value: Under 2.5 goals at 2.7, a goalless first half at 3.8 and both teams to score No at 2.5.

Context

Notts County started the group with a 2-1 home win over Grimsby Town on 22 September and, on the eve of this tie, framed it as a chance to make it 'two wins from two'. A second consecutive group win would put the Magpies close to qualification from a four-team group, giving an academy fixture competitive weight beyond a friendly. The club's public line is the only signal of intent, and no starting XI or rotation plan has been published.
- Notts County won their EFL Trophy group opener 2-1 at home to Grimsby Town on 22 September 2026.
- On 12 October 2026 the club posted that it was 'looking to make it two wins from two' in the competition the following night.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Forest's young side score freely: they beat Peterborough United U21 5-1 away on 9 October and have found the net in all 15 matches. The caveat is the level, since every win came against academy or lower-league opposition, and a senior League One defence at Meadow Lane is a different test. Notts County have drawn four of ten themselves, while no Forest match this season has ended level.
- Nottingham Forest U21 have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in 15 competitive matches from 6 March to 9 October 2026, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.4 goals per game.
- Their most recent match was a 5-1 away win at Peterborough United U21 on 9 October 2026.
Notts County called the tie 'a local affair' and Forest's academy described 'the short journey to Meadow Lane'. The two grounds sit roughly 250 metres apart, making this an unusual EFL Trophy group game between near-neighbours rather than a long trip for an invited academy side. That gives the fixture local colour and a compact, familiar away trip for Forest's young players. It does not by itself indicate how either side will set up, and the home advantage remains Notts County's.
- Notts County's matchday post on 13 October 2026 called the tie 'a local affair in the Jersey Mike's Trophy'.
- Nottingham Forest's academy described 'making the short journey to Meadow Lane' on the morning of the game.
- A widely shared 29 September 2026 list of the world's closest rival stadiums placed the two clubs' grounds 250 metres apart.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Notts County posted 'A first professional goal for Rory Finneran' on 11 October, a day after the midfielder scored in added time as a half-time substitute in a 2-1 League One home loss to Oxford United. The recognition marks a step for a squad player at Meadow Lane and gives the club a fresh first-team milestone. It does not establish a role for the EFL Trophy tie, and the club has published no indication that Finneran will be involved beyond the squad context.
- Notts County posted 'A first professional goal for Rory Finneran' on 11 October 2026.
- Finneran came on at half-time against Oxford United on 10 October 2026 and scored in the first of five added minutes as Notts lost 2-1 at home.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:27 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Notts County are the senior side at home with a workable home record, so they hold the better chance.
- Notts County are 3W-1D-2L in their last six competitive home matches, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 per game at home
- Forest U21 have won 10 of 15 but all against academy or lower-league opposition
- Notts County won their EFL Trophy opener 2-1 at home to Grimsby on 22 September
- Notts County have scored in 8 of 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNotts CountyEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time the most likely outcome.
- Notts County average 0.5 first-half goals in each direction
- Forest U21 concede only 0.33 first-half goals per game
- Three of Notts County's last six were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Notts County finish games well at home and Forest concede regularly after the break.
- Notts County average 0.8 second-half goals and concede 0.7
- Forest U21 concede 1.07 second-half goals per game
- Notts County scored after the break in three of their last six
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonNotts CountyEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Notts County are the senior side at home with a workable home record, so they hold the better chance. Forest's under-21s are in strong scoring form and can trouble a Notts County side that concedes regularly.
- Notts County are 3W-1D-2L in their last six competitive home matches, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 per game at home
- Forest U21 have won 10 of 15 but all against academy or lower-league opposition
- Forest U21 have won 10 of 15 and score 2.0 goals per game
- They won 5-1 at Peterborough United U21 in their most recent match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNotts County or Nottingham Forest U21Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time the most likely outcome. Forest's under-21s start well and have the better first-half scoring record.
- Notts County average 0.5 first-half goals in each direction
- Forest U21 concede only 0.33 first-half goals per game
- Forest U21 average 0.93 first-half goals and concede 0.33
- They led at half-time in four of their last six
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Nottingham Forest U21Estimated chance73%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in fairly open matches, so three goals or more is a slight favourite.
- Notts County's matches average 2.5 total goals
- Forest U21's matches average 3.4 total goals
- Forest U21 scored two or more in five of their last six
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have regularly scored and conceded, making a shared scoreline likely.
- Notts County have both teams scoring in 7 of 10 competitive matches
- Forest U21 have both teams scoring in 10 of 15
- Both teams scored in five of Forest's last six
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Notts County's recent scoring suggests one goal or fewer is the more likely outcome.
- Notts County average 1.3 goals overall and 1.5 at home
- They scored once or none in five of their last six
- Forest U21 have kept five clean sheets in 15
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNotts County under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The step up in opponent quality makes one goal or fewer for Forest a fair outcome.
- Forest U21 average 2.0 goals overall but have not faced senior league opposition
- Notts County have kept one clean sheet in 10
- Forest scored once in two of their last six
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNottingham Forest U21 under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Notts County concede regularly and Forest have been scoring, so a clean sheet is unlikely.
- Notts County have one clean sheet in 10 competitive matches
- Forest U21 have scored in each of their last six
- Notts County conceded in 9 of 10
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNottingham Forest U21 to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Notts County's regular scoring makes it likely they find a way through.
- Notts County scored in 8 of 10 competitive matches
- Forest U21 have one clean sheet in their last six
- Notts County scored in each of their last two home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNotts County to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been common in both teams' recent matches.
- Notts County's first halves average 1.0 total goals
- Forest U21's first halves average 1.27 total goals
- Only one of Forest's last six first halves was goalless
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With modest first-half output on both sides, a shared early scoreline is unlikely.
- Notts County average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.5
- Forest U21 average 0.93 first-half goals and concede 0.33
- Low first-half scoring is the norm for both
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving both teams have produced plenty of goals, so two or more is a slight favourite.
- Notts County's second halves average 1.5 total goals
- Forest U21's second halves average 2.13 total goals
- Forest U21 conceded three second-half goals in their most recent home match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Recent Form

Notts County

L1-2Oxford UnitedOct 10LEA

W2-1GrimsbySep 22EFL

L0-2ReadingSep 19LEA

L0-1BradfordSep 12LEA

D1-1HuddersfieldSep 5LEA

D1-1DoncasterSep 1LEA

W2-1Burton AlbionAug 29LEA

D2-2LutonAug 22LEA

D1-1LeicesterAug 15LEA

D0-0WalsallAug 1FRI

L0-2Nottingham ForestJul 18FRI

L1-3Randers FCJul 14FRI

L0-2ViborgJul 11FRI

W5-0Alfreton TownJul 4FRI

W3-0Salford CityMay 25LEA

Nottingham Forest U21

W5-1Peterborough United U21Oct 9PRE

L2-4Sporting CP BSep 30PRE

W3-1West Bromwich Albion U21Sep 18PRE

W1-0Burnley U21Sep 14PRE

L1-2ScunthorpeSep 8NAT

W2-1Manchester City U21Aug 28PRE

L1-5Sunderland U21Aug 24PRE

W2-0Luton Town U21Aug 14PRE

L1-2Norwich City U21May 11PRO

W1-0Peterborough United U21May 4PRO

W3-2Charlton Athletic U21Apr 27PRO

W2-0Crystal Palace U21Apr 3PRE

W3-0Newcastle United U21Mar 20PRE

W2-1Fulham U21Mar 13PRE

L1-2Southampton U21Mar 6PRE

Squad & Injuries

Notts County

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Nottingham Forest U21

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Notts County

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Notts County

Nottingham Forest U21

Squad & Injuries

Notts County

Nottingham Forest U21