Stockport County3Leicester City4

HT 1–2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 18–9On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 8–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Stockport County are the likely winners against a struggling Leicester City side that has lost its way defensively and in transition.

The best value is on Stockport or Draw (double chance) at 1.30, while Leicester win and over 2.5 goals should be avoided due to poor odds relative to our estimates.

Context

Stockport County are 3rd in League One with 9 points from 5 matches, while Leicester City are 17th with 5 points.
Stockport's position near the top of the table suggests they are competing for promotion, which may lead them to play with urgency to maintain their standing. Leicester's lower position could mean they are more desperate for points, but their recent form has been inconsistent. The 4-point gap is meaningful early in the season, but both teams still have many matches to play.
- Stockport County are 3rd with 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 losses).
- Leicester City are 17th with 5 points from 5 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses).
- Stockport's goal difference is +7, while Leicester's is -3.
Leicester goalkeeper J. Stolarczyk has started 3 of the last 5 available lineups, with A. McCarthy covering in the other 2.
Stolarczyk's season-ending ACL injury removes him from selection, leaving McCarthy as the likely starter at Stockport. The change is confirmed and reduces Leicester's goalkeeper options for this match.
- Leicester’s 5 September team news confirmed that Jakub Stolarczyk would miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury.
- The club published the confirmation before the Oxford United match and the upcoming trip to Stockport.
- J. Stolarczyk started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. McCarthy started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when J. Stolarczyk did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 23:26 · Europe/BucharestLeicester City — Team News: Leicester City Vs. Oxford Unitedwww.lcfc.com · 5 Sep 2026
Leicester City are 17th in League One with 5 points from 5 matches.
The 4-0 defeat to Oxford United was Leicester's most recent league match and their heaviest loss of the season. It exposed defensive issues, as they conceded four goals despite having 63% possession. Stockport County have scored 13 goals in 5 league matches, so Leicester's backline will need to improve quickly to avoid another difficult afternoon.
- Leicester City lost 4-0 at home to Oxford United on 5 September 2026.
- Leicester had 63% possession but conceded 4 goals from 12 shots faced.
- Leicester's recent league form is LWDLD.
Leicester manager Russell Martin spoke after the 4-0 defeat at Oxford.
Martin identified a lack of energy and aggression in duels, and said Leicester were exposed in transition while chasing the game. Those issues give a concrete focus for their preparation against Stockport, though the tactical response remains to be seen.
- Martin said Leicester lost the Oxford match through a lack of fight in duels and that the side came out on the wrong side of challenges.
- He said Leicester were caught in transition while chasing the game and that the staff would review the performance.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 23:26 · Europe/BucharestLeicester City — We Have To Be So Much Betterwww.lcfc.com · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Stockport's attack is potent but Leicester's recent defensive frailties and transition issues could still lead to an open game.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in recent matches, but Leicester's away scoring record is inconsistent.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's superior league position, goal output, and home advantage outweigh Leicester's possession stats, making a home win the most likely single outcome.
- Stockport County are 3rd with 9 points from 5 games (W3 L2), while Leicester are 17th with 5 points (W1 D2 L2).
- Stockport average 2.3 goals scored per game vs Leicester's 1.3; Stockport concede 1.1 vs Leicester's 1.1.
- Stockport's home record this season: 1 win, 1 loss, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded; Leicester's away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 goal scored, 1 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leicester's poor away form and overall inconsistency make a Stockport win or draw highly probable.
- Stockport have won 3 of their last 5 league matches, losing only to Luton and Blackpool.
- Leicester have not won away this season (2 draws) and have only 1 win in 5 overall.
- Stockport's home form is mixed but they average 3 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostStockport County or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stockport's stronger first-half scoring record gives them a slight edge to lead at halftime.
- Stockport lead at halftime in 47% of matches, Leicester in 33%.
- Stockport average 1.1 first-half goals vs Leicester's 0.7.
- Leicester trail at halftime in 13% of matches, same as Stockport.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Stockport lead at halftime and fulltime is possible but not highly probable given Leicester's resilience.
- Stockport have led at halftime and won in 3 of their last 5 wins.
- Leicester have not won away and often trail or draw at halftime.
- Stockport's home advantage may help them maintain a lead.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostStockport County/Stockport CountyEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's high-scoring attack and Leicester's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Stockport's matches average 3.4 total goals (2.3 scored + 1.1 conceded).
- Leicester's matches average 2.4 total goals (1.3 scored + 1.1 conceded).
- Stockport have scored 13 goals in 5 league games, including 6 in one match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Stockport have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Leicester have scored in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Both teams have conceded at least one goal in most recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Stockport average 1.1 first-half goals per game.
- Leicester average 0.7 first-half goals per game.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.8, indicating a high chance of at least one goal before halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' tendencies, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Stockport's second-half goal difference is positive in most matches.
- Leicester have conceded multiple goals in several second halves.
- Total goals per match average suggests second-half scoring is common.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Stockport average 7.3 corners per game, Leicester 6.3.
- Combined average corners per game is 13.6.
- Recent matches show high corner counts for both teams.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High shot on target averages suggest over 8.5 total shots on target is probable.
- Stockport average 6.1 shots on target per game, Leicester 5.1.
- Combined average shots on target is 11.2.
- Both teams have high shot volumes in recent matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%