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Settling…

Notts County2Grimsby Town1

HT 1–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Settling…

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 0–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 17:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Notts County have lost two in a row without scoring, while Grimsby are unbeaten in six and have drawn all three away league games, so a tight, low-scoring tie looks the likeliest shape.

Under 2.5 goals at 2.25, over 10.5 corners at 2.2, the draw at 3.75 and Notts County to avoid defeat at 1.5 are the prices with something in them; 2.4 on either team to win is not.

Context

No team news, venue or round detail was available for this tie, and there is no research coverage on availability or scheduling. The only on-record factors are Grimsby's six-match unbeaten run and three away draws, and Notts County's two straight defeats without a goal, which shape expectation but are ordinary form rather than changed conditions.

This tie is listed with Notts County as the home side, and the only goal of the most recent meeting went to the visitors.
A single goal settled the February 2026 meeting in Grimsby's favour, so a Notts County side that has not scored in either of its last two matches cannot assume the head-to-head record will carry it.
- 28 February 2026, League Two: Notts County 0-1 Grimsby Town — the most recent meeting between the clubs.
Grimsby are the visiting side here and have neither won nor lost a league game on the road this season.
Three away league matches, all drawn, with both teams scoring in two of them, point to a level contest, though three games is a thin base for expecting another draw.
- Grimsby away league record, 22 August to 5 September 2026: 3 matches, W0 D3 L0, with both teams scoring in two of the three.
Notts County are listed as the home side, and their home matches have stayed low-scoring at both ends.
An average of 1.8 goals in total per home game is a small-sample figure drawn from five matches, and it already includes the 0-1 home defeat to Bradford on 12 September.
- Notts County home record, 15 May to 12 September 2026: 5 competitive matches, W2 D2 L1, 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, 2 clean sheets.
Grimsby arrive as the away side off their most productive attacking display of the recent run.
Eleven shots on target is well above the 2.4 shots on target Notts County have allowed per home game, so the question is whether that volume travels.
- 19 September 2026, League Two: Grimsby Town 2-0 Crawley Town — 22 shots, 11 on target, 1 opposition shot on target, both goals scored in the first half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a higher division give Notts County a narrow lead, even with poor recent form.
- Notts County home: W2 D2 L1 in 5, GF 1.2, GA 0.6.
- Notts County overall: W3 D5 L2 in 10.
- Notts County won 3 of last 5 head-to-head.
BetBugs · Match WinnerNotts CountyEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
First halves often finish level for both teams.
- Notts County first-half draws in 4 of last 6.
- Grimsby first-half draws in 2 of last 6.
- Grimsby first-half GF average: 1.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.30Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves often finish level, especially with Grimsby's recent pattern.
- Grimsby second-half draws in 4 of last 6.
- Notts County second-half draws in 2 of last 6.
- Both teams second-half GA average: 0.5.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Home advantage and a higher division give Notts County a narrow lead, even with poor recent form. Both teams draw frequently and Grimsby's away matches have all ended level.
- Notts County home: W2 D2 L1 in 5, GF 1.2, GA 0.6.
- Notts County overall: W3 D5 L2 in 10.
- Notts County drew 5 of 10 competitive matches.
- Grimsby drew 4 of 8 overall and all 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChanceNotts County or DrawMarket price1.50Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
First halves often finish level for both teams. Grimsby's strong starts give them the better chance to lead at the break.
- Notts County first-half draws in 4 of last 6.
- Grimsby first-half draws in 2 of last 6.
- Grimsby first-half GF average: 1.0.
- Grimsby scored 7 first-half goals in last 6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Grimsby TownMarket price1.36Estimated chance74%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Notts County's low-scoring home matches point to under 2.5 goals.
- Notts County overall total goals average: 2.0.
- Notts County home total goals average: 1.8.
- Notts County recent over 2.5 in only 2 of 6.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price2.25Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams are usually involved in first halves with at least one goal.
- Notts County first-half over 0.5 in 4 of 6.
- Grimsby first-half over 0.5 in 5 of 6.
- Grimsby first-half GF average: 1.0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.29Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Notts County's stingy home defense makes it more likely Grimsby are held under two.
- Notts County home GA average: 0.6.
- Grimsby away GF average: 1.33.
- Grimsby away scored 2+ in 2 of 3.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalGrimsby Town under 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Grimsby's high corner counts push the total toward the over.
- Grimsby overall corners total average: 13.0.
- Grimsby over 10.5 corners in 4 of 6 recent.
- Notts County over 10.5 corners in 2 of 6 recent.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 10.5Market price2.20Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have regularly produced four or more cards.
- Notts County overall cards total average: 4.6.
- Grimsby overall cards total average: 3.6.
- Both teams over 3.5 cards in 4 of last 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grimsby's shot-on-target volume gives the over a slight lean.
- Grimsby overall shots on target total average: 8.25.
- Notts County overall shots on target total average: 6.4.
- Both teams over 8.5 shots on target in 3 of last 6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grimsby's high shot volume makes the over slightly more likely.
- Grimsby overall shots total average: 25.5.
- Notts County overall shots total average: 21.0.
- Grimsby over 25.5 shots in 4 of 6 recent.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 25.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L0-1Notts CountyvGrimsbyFeb 28, 2026LEA

W0-2GrimsbyvNotts CountyDec 13, 2025LEA

W0-2GrimsbyvNotts CountyMar 11, 2025LEA

W4-1Notts CountyvGrimsbyAug 22, 2024LEA

D5-5GrimsbyvNotts CountyJan 13, 2024LEA

Notts County: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Notts County

L0-2ReadingSep 19LEA

L0-1BradfordSep 12LEA

D1-1HuddersfieldSep 5LEA

D1-1DoncasterSep 1LEA

W2-1Burton AlbionAug 29LEA

D2-2LutonAug 22LEA

D1-1LeicesterAug 15LEA

D0-0WalsallAug 1FRI

L0-2Nottingham ForestJul 18FRI

L1-3Randers FCJul 14FRI

L0-2ViborgJul 11FRI

W5-0Alfreton TownJul 4FRI

W3-0Salford CityMay 25LEA

D0-0ChesterfieldMay 15LEA

W1-0ChesterfieldMay 10LEA

Grimsby Town

W2-0Crawley TownSep 19LEA

W2-0Bristol RoversSep 12LEA

D2-2CheltenhamSep 5LEA

D2-2Accrington STSep 1LEA

D2-2Fleetwood TownAug 29LEA

D0-0WalsallAug 22LEA

W1-0Exeter CityAug 15LEA

L1-3BlackpoolAug 8LEA

W3-2Grimsby BoroughAug 4FRI

W2-0WiganAug 1FRI

D0-0Boston UnitedJul 29FRI

W5-1LincolnJul 28FRI

W3-0HartlepoolJul 25FRI

D1-1Zorya LuhanskJul 18FRI

D0-0Cleethorpes TownJul 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Notts County

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Grimsby Town

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Over 10.5

Draw

Notts County or Draw

Draw or Grimsby Town

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result0 of 0 landed

Goals0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Notts County

Grimsby Town

Squad & Injuries

Notts County

Grimsby Town