St Patrick's1Shelbourne2

HT 1–0Fri 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 24–10On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 12–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 18:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed St Patrick's host fourth-placed Shelbourne in a sold-out Dublin derby at the sharp end of the title race.

St Patrick's have the stronger home record and are the likeliest winners, but Shelbourne have lost only twice on the road and won at Richmond Park in May. Five quoted selections offer something: Shelbourne level or ahead at half-time at 1.7, a drawn first half at 2.4, the draw or Shelbourne at 2.38, Under 2.5 goals at 2 and the full-time draw at 4.

Context

The league's own broadcaster framed the final rounds around the reigning champions trying to reclaim top spot (5 October), and St Patrick's had gone top on goal difference as recently as 19 September. That makes this derby a direct points swing between two Dublin clubs in the hunt rather than a routine local fixture, with the season's remaining games limited. The available posts do not state the current points gap or final-round schedule, so the precise table effect of any result is uncertain, and a single derby is a limited guide to the eventual champion.
- RTÉ Sport (19 September 2026): St Patrick's "return to the top of the Premier Division table on goal difference", with "fellow title hopefuls Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians" also winning.
- League of Ireland (5 October 2026): "The Champions seek a win to bring them back to the top of the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division."
- Virgin Media Sport (7 October 2026) listed St Patrick's Athletic v Shelbourne among its title run-in coverage of the "climax of one of the most exhilarating" title races.
- Irish Sun Sport (8 October 2026) described "a Once in a Lifetime League of Ireland title race".
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest
St Patrick's reported fewer than 100 home tickets left on 7 October and a full house a day later, so the derby will be played before a packed, partisan Richmond Park crowd. The club also confirmed a live Virgin Media Sport broadcast and a later 8pm kick-off, which puts the match under lights and in front of a national audience. That combination can affect atmosphere and match rhythm, but no capacity or attendance figure was published, so the scale of any home advantage is not quantified.
- St Patrick's Athletic (8 October 2026): "All tickets for our Dublin Derby against Shelbourne at Richmond Park on Friday October 16th have sold out", the game "selected for live TV coverage on @VMSportIE meaning kick-off will move to the slightly later time of 8pm".
- St Patrick's Athletic (7 October 2026): "Less than 100 home tickets remain available" for the Shelbourne derby.
- Shelbourne FC (12 October 2026): the Reds are "on the road again for an away Dublin derby against @stpatsfc at Richmond Park".
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest
St Patrick's own post on 9 October describes coming almost back from a long international break, and their last recorded competitive match was the 19 September win at Sligo Rovers. Shelbourne, by contrast, had a competitive game on 9 October and scored five, so the two squads arrive with different recent rhythms. A three-to-four-week lay-off can restore legs but also cost match sharpness, and the club did not explain why its schedule was empty while others played, so the net effect is uncertain.
- St Patrick's Athletic (9 October 2026): "We're almost back from a long international break with a massive few weeks ahead" ahead of the Shelbourne derby.
- St Patrick's Athletic (5 October 2026): September brought "three League wins on the spin v Shamrock Rovers, Dundalk and Sligo Rovers".
- RTÉ Sport (19 September 2026): St Patrick's won away at Sligo Rovers to return to the top of the table.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Shelbourne's 5-1 win on 9 October is their most recent and most emphatic result going into Richmond Park, and it moved them into the top four of a title race. The breadth of scorers across the team suggests attacking form across the squad rather than one hot streak. The obvious caveat is the opponent: Sligo Rovers were already heading for relegation, so a rout of the bottom side is a weak guide to how Shelbourne will fare in a tight derby against a title rival.
- RTÉ Sport (9 October 2026): "Sligo Rovers, who have been in the SSE Airtricity Premier Division since 2005, were relegated as they were put to the sword by Shelbourne losing 5-1 at Tolka Park."
- LOIPDNews (9 October 2026) listed the scorers: Daniel Kelly 13', Mipo Odubeko 50', John Martin 52' and 60', Milan Mbeng 58'.
- Irish Sun Sport (9 October 2026): "John Martin double sends Shelbourne fourth as five-goal rout relegates Sligo Rovers".
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's have the stronger home and season-long record and have beaten Shelbourne three times in the last five meetings.
- St Patrick's home league record 10W-3D-3L with 31 scored and 10 conceded in 16
- Tracked form 9W-3D-2L, scoring 1.64 and conceding 0.64 per game
- St Patrick's won three of the last five meetings, including 2-1 at Shelbourne in August
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Limited first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the likeliest outcome.
- St Patrick's concede only 0.13 first-half goals at home
- Shelbourne average 0.29 first-half goals away
- Two of St Patrick's last four matches were goalless at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves are tighter than the full-time picture suggests, making a level 45 minutes likely.
- St Patrick's home second halves average 1.13 goals
- Shelbourne away second halves average 1.57 goals
- St Patrick's home matches average 2.25 goals overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's have the stronger home and season-long record and have beaten Shelbourne three times in the last five meetings. Shelbourne's many draws and the tight nature of this derby make a share of the points plausible.
- St Patrick's home league record 10W-3D-3L with 31 scored and 10 conceded in 16
- Tracked form 9W-3D-2L, scoring 1.64 and conceding 0.64 per game
- Shelbourne have drawn 13 of 33 league games, including eight on the road
- St Patrick's have drawn three of 14 tracked matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSt Patrick's or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's start strongly at home while Shelbourne rarely lead at the break on the road. Limited first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the likeliest outcome.
- St Patrick's average 1.0 first-half goals at home and 0.13 conceded
- Shelbourne concede 0.33 first-half goals away
- St Patrick's concede only 0.13 first-half goals at home
- Shelbourne average 0.29 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSt Patrick's or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both sides' recent matches sit under the three-goal line and St Patrick's concede little.
- St Patrick's tracked matches average 2.29 total goals
- St Patrick's home games average 2.25 total goals
- Shelbourne away tracked games average 2.33 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
St Patrick's strong defensive record makes it more likely one side is kept out.
- St Patrick's kept seven clean sheets in 14 tracked matches and four in eight at home
- St Patrick's concede 0.64 goals per game
- Shelbourne failed to score in three of 14 tracked matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne carry a regular scoring threat that has troubled St Patrick's before.
- St Patrick's conceded in four of eight home games
- Shelbourne scored 22 in 16 away league games
- Shelbourne scored in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonShelbourne to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's score consistently at home and Shelbourne concede regularly.
- Shelbourne conceded in 13 of 14 tracked matches
- St Patrick's scored in seven of eight home games at 1.63 goals per game
- St Patrick's found the net in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Patrick's to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first-half numbers point to at least one goal before the break.
- St Patrick's average 1.13 first-half goals per home game
- Shelbourne average 1.17 first-half goals per away game
- St Patrick's scored in the first half in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's home games stay tight after the break, favouring fewer than two second-half goals.
- St Patrick's concede 0.5 second-half goals at home
- Four of St Patrick's last six second halves produced fewer than two goals
- St Patrick's home matches average 2.25 goals overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages sit around the line, with St Patrick's home games tending higher.
- St Patrick's home matches average 12.2 corners
- Shelbourne away matches average 9.7 corners
- Both teams' tracked matches average around 10.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' combined shot counts fall just short of the line on average.
- St Patrick's home matches average 29.7 total shots
- Shelbourne away matches average 28.7 total shots
- Shelbourne's opponents average 16.5 shots in their away games
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 30.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's low away shot-on-target counts pull the combined figure under the line.
- Shelbourne away matches average 8.3 shots on target
- Shelbourne average 3.3 shots on target away
- St Patrick's home matches average 10.7 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A sold-out Dublin derby and high recent card counts point to another busy match for the referee.
- St Patrick's home matches average 4.2 yellow cards
- Shelbourne away matches average 4.2 yellow cards
- The most recent meeting produced eight yellow cards and a red
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

St Patrick's: 3/7 recent winner projections matched

3 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring St Patrick's matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for St Patrick's7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·Premier Division