Ettan - NorraFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Vasalund are the likelier winner based on home form and H2H, but the odds (1.67) imply a 60% chance versus our 45% estimate — no value.
Avoid the home win, double chance, over 2.5, BTTS, and first-half over 0.5 markets; all are overpriced relative to our model.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 5
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Vasalunds IFBetBugs 45% · Market 60%
The odds imply a 60% chance, but our model gives Vasalund only 45% based on their mixed home record and Stocksund's occasional away resilience.
BetBugs 70% · Market 80%
The market prices Vasalund or Draw at 80%, but our model sees only 70% probability, making this a negative value bet.
BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%
Both teams average 3.0 total goals in home/away splits and last H2H ended 2-2, but the odds are too short to justify the risk.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vasalunds IF | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24-32 | 20 |
| 15 |  IFK Stocksund | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 33-40 | 11 |