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Predictions graded

Shelbourne0Bohemians3

HT 0–2Mon 22 Jun 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–30%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jun 2026, 00:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Shelbourne or Draw is the safest narrative bet at 1.48, with a 70% probability and a small edge over the market.

For higher value, target Over 9.5 Corners (1.88, +7pt edge) and Over 4.5 Cards (2.10, +12.4pt edge), as derby intensity and season-long trends point to plenty of set-pieces and bookings. Avoid the straight draw and BTTS markets, which are efficiently priced with no edge.

Context

Reynolds admitted the club was excited about the European draw but warned they needed to improve domestically after the Derry defeat.
- The Conference League first qualifying round is on the horizon, potentially splitting focus.
- Bohemians' last away match was a heavy 4-1 loss, suggesting vulnerability when not fully concentrated.
O'Brien said after a recent home draw that teams 'try not to get beat' at Tolka Park.
- Shelbourne have won only 2 of 11 home league matches this season.
- They have drawn 5 of those 11, showing difficulty turning possession into wins.
The two 2026 league meetings ended 2-2 and 0-0.
- A friendly in January 2026 also finished 2-2.
- Bohemians have not beaten Shelbourne in the last three competitive H2Hs.
Manager Joey O'Brien confirmed Lunney and Gannon were available again after the break.
- McInroy is still sidelined following a minor knee operation.
- James Norris and Odhran Casey were also progressing in their recoveries.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology strongly points to a draw, with all three recent meetings ending level, and Shelbourne's poor home win rate (only 2 wins in 11) combined with Bohemians' solid away form makes a stalemate the most likely outcome.
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 2-2, 0-0, 2-2 (all draws).
- Shelbourne home record: 2W-5D-4L; Bohemians away record: 6W-2D-3L.
- Shelbourne last 5 form: W-D-D-W-W (10 pts); Bohemians last 5: L-W-L-W-W (9 pts).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's H2H edge and Bohemians' inability to beat them in recent meetings, plus Shelbourne's resilience at home (only 4 losses), make Shelbourne or Draw a high-probability outcome.
- Shelbourne unbeaten in last 3 H2H (2 draws, 1 win).
- Shelbourne home loss rate: 4/11 (36%); Bohemians away loss rate: 3/11 (27%).
- Shelbourne last 5 home matches: W-D-D-W-L (8 pts from 15).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostShelbourne or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, and the H2H trend of level scores at the break strongly suggests another drawn first half.
- Shelbourne leading at HT in 27% of matches; Bohemians in 27%.
- Shelbourne trailing at HT in 20%; Bohemians in 33%.
- Last 3 H2H HT results: D, D, D.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not highly probable, the pattern of draws in this fixture and Shelbourne's home draw tendency make a stalemate at both intervals a plausible low-confidence pick.
- Shelbourne home draws: 5/11 (45%); Bohemians away draws: 2/11 (18%).
- Last 3 H2H: 2 draws at FT, with 2 draws at HT.
- Shelbourne last 5 home matches: 3 draws at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite some high-scoring H2H outliers, the most recent meeting was 0-0, and both teams have shown defensive solidity in key moments, suggesting a tight, low-scoring derby.
- Shelbourne home goals avg: 1.45; Bohemians away goals avg: 1.73.
- Last 3 H2H: 2-2, 0-0, 2-2 (2 of 3 under 2.5 goals).
- Shelbourne last 5 home matches: 2, 1, 0, 2, 3 goals scored (avg 1.6).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and the H2H pattern shows goals at both ends in most recent clashes, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Both teams scored in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
- Shelbourne home BTTS rate: 7/11 (64%); Bohemians away BTTS rate: 7/11 (64%).
- Shelbourne scored in 9 of last 10 home matches; Bohemians scored in 9 of last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average low first-half scoring, and recent H2H first halves have been tight, supporting a low-scoring opening period.
- Shelbourne first-half goals avg: 0.6; Bohemians first-half goals avg: 0.6.
- Shelbourne first-half goals conceded avg: 0.5; Bohemians first-half goals conceded avg: 0.7.
- Last 3 H2H first-half scores: 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 (all under 1.5 total goals).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite recent H2H second-half unders, both teams tend to score and concede more after the break, and the derby could open up late, offering a low-confidence over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Shelbourne second-half goals avg: 0.8; Bohemians second-half goals avg: 0.9.
- Shelbourne second-half goals conceded avg: 0.8; Bohemians second-half goals conceded avg: 0.8.
- Last 3 H2H second-half goals: 1, 0, 1 (all under 1.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, especially Bohemians on the road, and the overall season averages point to a total above 9.5 despite recent H2H unders.
- Shelbourne home corners avg: 4.7; Bohemians away corners avg: 6.1.
- Combined avg corners in Shelbourne home matches: 9.8; in Bohemians away matches: 10.4.
- Last 3 H2H corners: 7, 6, 7 (all under 9.5, but overall season trends higher).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derby intensity and historical card counts in this fixture, along with Shelbourne's high home card average, make over 4.5 cards likely.
- Shelbourne home yellow cards avg: 3.0; Bohemians away yellow cards avg: 1.9.
- Combined avg cards in Shelbourne home matches: 5.2; in Bohemians away matches: 4.5.
- Last 3 H2H: 8, 6, 5 total cards (all over 4.5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

D2-2BohemiansvShelbourneMay 4, 2026PRE

D0-0ShelbournevBohemiansMar 16, 2026PRE

D2-2BohemiansvShelbourneJan 24, 2026FRI

W2-3BohemiansvShelbourneOct 26, 2025PRE

D2-2ShelbournevBohemiansAug 9, 2025PRE

Shelbourne unbeaten in 5 meetings3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Shelbourne	20	7	8	5	29-27	29	WDDWW
3	Bohemians Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	21	9	7	5	32-25	34	LWLWW

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Shelbourne

W2-1Shamrock RoversJun 12PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 29PRE

D0-0Derry CityMay 25PRE

W2-1WaterfordMay 22PRE

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.May 15PRE

D0-0Sligo RoversMay 8PRE

D2-2BohemiansMay 4PRE

W2-1DundalkMay 1PRE

L3-4Drogheda UnitedApr 24PRE

L1-2Derry CityApr 17PRE

L2-3Shamrock RoversApr 6PRE

L2-3DundalkApr 3PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMar 21PRE

D0-0BohemiansMar 16PRE

W2-1Derry CityMar 13PRE

Bohemians

L1-4Derry CityJun 12PRE

W3-1Sligo RoversMay 29PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversMay 25PRE

W4-2Galway UnitedMay 22PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedMay 15PRE

W3-1DundalkMay 8PRE

D2-2ShelbourneMay 4PRE

D1-1Derry CityMay 1PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 24PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversApr 17PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversApr 10PRE

D1-1WaterfordApr 6PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedApr 3PRE

D1-1DundalkMar 20PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMar 16PRE

Squad & Injuries

Shelbourne

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Bohemians

24 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Shelbourne or Draw

Draw

Over 9.5

Over 4.5

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Under 8.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Shelbourne

Bohemians

Squad & Injuries

Shelbourne

Bohemians