Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Juventude3Ponte Preta0

HT 2–0Sun 14 Jun 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–271%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Jun 2026, 14:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude’s defensive solidity meets a Ponte Preta side reeling from a coaching exit and financial restructuring.

The best value is in first-half goals under 0.5 at 2.63 (55% model probability vs. 38% implied) and over 4.5 total cards at 1.83 (60% model probability vs. 54.6% implied). Avoid the match winner market, where the home win is too short and the draw/away win lack appeal.

Context

Ponte Preta's official site confirmed Santana left on 26 May 2026 due to results and family matters.
- Since his exit, Ponte have lost all five matches, conceding 14 goals.
- No permanent replacement has been announced, leaving the team in a leadership vacuum.
Juventude home record in Serie B: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- They have kept clean sheets in 5 of those 6 home games.
- Only Sport Recife managed to score against them at home, in a 1-0 defeat.
Ponte Preta away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses, with 5 goals scored and 11 conceded.
- They have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of those 5 away matches.
- Their only away win came against Avai (2-1) in April, but they have since lost three straight on the road.
Last two H2H matches (both in 2023) finished 0-0.
- In the last five H2H meetings, four had under 2.5 goals.
- The only high-scoring game was a 3-1 away win for Juventude in 2020.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong home defensive record (1 goal conceded in 6 home games) contrasts sharply with Ponte Preta's poor away form and recent coaching instability, giving the home side a clear edge.
- Juventude home record: 3W-2D-1L, 6 goals for, 1 against in 6 Serie B matches this season.
- Ponte Preta away record: 1W-0D-4L, 5 goals for, 11 against in 5 away matches.
- Ponte Preta last 5 matches: DLLLL, 4 goals for, 14 against.
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): 3W-1D-1L, 9 goals for, 2 against.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home resilience combined with Ponte Preta's dreadful away form and recent coaching turmoil makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Juventude home record: 3W-2D-1L, only 1 loss in 6 home games.
- Ponte Preta away record: 1W-0D-4L, 80% loss rate on the road.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 draws, 2 Juventude wins, 1 Ponte win (all in Serie B).
- Ponte Preta last 5 matches: DLLLL, 0 wins.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventude or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's tendency to start well at home, combined with Ponte Preta's habit of conceding early on the road, gives the home side a slight edge to lead at halftime.
- Juventude home first-half record: led at halftime in 27% of all matches, but home splits not explicitly given; last 5 home matches: led at HT in 2 of 5.
- Ponte Preta away first-half record: trailed at halftime in 47% of all matches; last 5 away: trailed at HT in 3 of 5.
- Juventude first-half goals at home: scored in 3 of last 5 home matches before break.
- Ponte Preta first-half goals conceded away: conceded in 4 of last 5 away matches before break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is expected given both teams' low first-half scoring, and Juventude's superior fitness and home advantage could see them break through in the second half.
- Juventude home matches: drawn at halftime in 3 of last 5 home games, then won 2 of those.
- Ponte Preta away matches: drawn at halftime in 1 of last 5 away, but lost all second halves in those drawn games.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 0-0 at halftime in 3 matches, with Juventude winning 2 of those (one 2-1, one 0-0).
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): HT draw, FT win occurred once.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / JuventudeEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home games are extremely low-scoring, and the H2H history shows a pattern of tight, low-goal encounters, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Juventude home matches: 6 goals for, 1 against in 6 games (avg 1.17 total goals per game).
- Ponte Preta away matches: 5 goals for, 11 against in 5 games (avg 3.2 total goals per game, but skewed by one 4-2 loss).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals (0-0, 0-0, 2-1, 1-3, 0-1).
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's defensive solidity at home, where they've kept clean sheets in 5 of 6 league games, makes it likely that Ponte Preta will fail to score.
- Juventude home clean sheets: 5 of 6 home Serie B matches this season.
- Ponte Preta away scoring: failed to score in 2 of 5 away matches, only 5 goals total.
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 matches.
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): kept clean sheets in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's exceptional home defensive record, conceding just once in six league games, points to another clean sheet against a struggling Ponte Preta attack.
- Juventude home clean sheets: 5 of 6 Serie B home matches this season.
- Ponte Preta away goals scored: 5 in 5 matches, but 3 came in one game; blanked in 2 of last 3 away.
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): 3 clean sheets.
- Ponte Preta last 5 matches: scored only 4 goals, blanked twice.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPonte Preta not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the H2H history shows a pattern of goalless first halves, making under 0.5 goals in the first half likely.
- Juventude home first-half goals: 0.3 avg overall; last 5 home matches: 0-0 at HT in 2 of 5.
- Ponte Preta away first-half goals: 0.4 avg overall; last 5 away: 0-0 at HT in 1 of 5.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 0-0 at halftime in 3 of 5 matches.
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): 0-0 at HT in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home matches tend to have moderate corner counts, and excluding one outlier, Ponte's away corner totals are not excessively high, supporting under 9.5 corners.
- Juventude home corners: avg 4.1 per game overall; last 5 home matches: avg 4.6 corners for, 4.4 against (total avg 9.0).
- Ponte Preta away corners: avg 5.8 per game overall; last 5 away matches: avg 5.4 corners for, 7.8 against (total avg 13.2, but skewed by one 12-5 game).
- H2H last 5 meetings: corner data unavailable for most, but recent matches show moderate totals.
- Juventude last 5 home matches (all comps): total corners under 9.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2-3 yellow cards per game, and Ponte's recent disciplinary issues (multiple games with 4+ cards) suggest a combative match with over 4.5 total cards.
- Juventude home cards: avg 2.1 yellow cards overall; last 5 home matches: avg 2.2 yellows for, 2.6 against (total avg 4.8).
- Ponte Preta away cards: avg 2.8 yellow cards overall; last 5 away matches: avg 3.2 yellows for, 2.4 against (total avg 5.6).
- Ponte Preta last 5 matches: received 4, 2, 6, 5, 3 yellow cards (avg 4.0).
- Juventude last 5 home matches: total cards over 4.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 7 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D0-0JuventudevPonte PretaNov 18, 2023SER

D0-0Ponte PretavJuventudeJul 19, 2023SER

W2-1JuventudevPonte PretaDec 30, 2020SER

W1-3Ponte PretavJuventudeOct 4, 2020SER

L0-1JuventudevPonte PretaNov 9, 2018SER

Juventude: 2 clean sheetsPonte Preta: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Juventude	12	4	4	4	10-8	16	LWLDD
19	Ponte Preta Relegation	11	2	2	7	9-20	8	DLLLL

8pt gap between teamsPonte Preta in relegation zone

Recent Form

Juventude

L1-2Operario-PRJun 5SER

W3-0America MineiroMay 30SER

L0-1Sport RecifeMay 23SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 17SER

W3-1Sao PauloMay 13COP

D0-0CriciumaMay 10SER

W2-1TombenseMay 7COP

D0-0Atletico GoianienseMay 3SER

L2-3CianorteApr 30COP

W1-0LondrinaApr 26SER

L0-1Sao PauloApr 21COP

W1-0CRBApr 18SER

D0-0Chapecoense-scApr 16COP

W2-0GoiasApr 11SER

L0-1CaxiasApr 8COP

Ponte Preta

D0-0Botafogo SPJun 1SER

L2-4CRBMay 24SER

L1-4LondrinaMay 18SER

L1-3Sport RecifeMay 9SER

L0-3São BernardoMay 3SER

W1-0America MineiroApr 24SER

W2-1AvaiApr 18SER

L0-1Vila NovaApr 11SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeApr 4SER

D1-1CearaApr 2SER

L1-2Athletic ClubMar 22SER

L0-1Atletico GoianienseMar 18COP

W1-0Guarany de BagéMar 11COP

L1-2Sao PauloFeb 15PAU

L0-2PortuguesaFeb 7PAU

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

52 available

Attackers10

Midfielders19

Defenders18

Goalkeeper5

Ponte Preta

52 available

Attackers13

Midfielders17

Defenders19

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Juventude

Juventude or Draw

No

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ponte Preta

Juventude at half-time / Juventude at full-time

Juventude

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Juventude

Ponte Preta

Squad & Injuries

Juventude

Ponte Preta