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Predictions graded

Derry City0Shelbourne0

HT 0–0Mon 25 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 72%–28%ShotsShots 9–2On targetOn target 1–1CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 18:14 · Europe/Bucharest

A live table-position game with Derry under managerial pressure and Shelbourne respecting the tough away trip.

The draw is the top value at 3.25 (38% estimate vs 31% implied), backed by Derry's 47% draw rate and a tight recent H2H. Goals are likely but offer no edge; confirm the venue before betting as Derry's home ground has shifted this season.

Context

Extratime flagged pressure on Lynch in the 12 March preview after a loss to Shamrock Rovers.
- On 17 April, Extratime described Derry's season as well below expectations and said Lynch was under significant pressure.
- The pressure has been developing for over a month, not a one-week blip.
In the 12 March preview, O'Brien said Derry away is a difficult fixture.
- He described Derry as a proper outfit, showing respect rather than complacency.
- The away dugout's tone suggests Shelbourne are prepared for a tough match.
Shelbourne won 2-1 at Derry in March 2026.
- Derry won 2-1 at Shelbourne in April 2026.
- Derry have lost only one of the last five league H2H meetings (W3 D1 L1).
The 2026 league season page lists both Ryan McBride Brandywell and Celtic Park as Derry home venues.
- A 24 April BBC report cited a historic fixture at a GAA ground.
- Venue data in the feed is unclear, so bettors should confirm the actual ground.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high BTTS rates this season, especially Shelbourne's 75% overall and away, and 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings saw both score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tight H2H and both teams' high draw rates, combined with Derry's home inconsistency and Shelbourne's strong away form, make a stalemate the most probable single outcome.
- Derry City have drawn 8 of 17 league matches this season (47%), including 3 of last 5.
- Shelbourne have drawn 6 of 16 league matches (38%), with 4 draws in 8 home games but only 2 in 8 away.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 Derry wins, 2 Shelbourne wins, 1 draw; both 2026 meetings ended 2-1 to the away side.
- Derry home record: 3W-3D-2L; Shelbourne away record: 5W-2D-1L, but Shelbourne's away wins often against lower sides.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's home resilience and historical H2H edge, plus Shelbourne's difficulty beating Derry recently, support Derry avoiding defeat.
- Derry City have lost only 2 of 8 home matches this season (25% loss rate).
- Shelbourne have won only 5 of 8 away matches, but 3 of those wins were against bottom-half teams; Derry are 6th.
- Derry lead the long-term H2H 24-16-10 and have lost only 1 of last 5 league meetings at home (W3 D1).
- Shelbourne have failed to win in 4 of last 5 league meetings overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDerry City or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw rates, especially Shelbourne at 53%, and recent H2H shows a mix, making a level first half the most likely scenario.
- Derry City: led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 33%.
- Shelbourne: led at half-time in 20%, trailed in 27%, drawn in 53%.
- Last 5 H2H: half-time results: W-D-L-W-D (2 draws, 2 Derry leads, 1 Shelbourne lead).
- Derry home first-half record: 3 leads, 2 draws, 3 trails in 8 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Draws are common in second halves for both sides, and recent H2H second halves have been split, but the low confidence reflects the variability of second-half outcomes.
- Derry City second-half results: W4 D7 L6 in 17 matches (41% draws).
- Shelbourne second-half results: W5 D5 L6 in 16 matches (31% draws).
- Last 5 H2H second-half results: 2 draws, 2 Shelbourne wins, 1 Derry win.
- Both teams have negative second-half goal differences (Derry -0.2, Shelbourne +0.1).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams draw often, the specific Draw/Draw combination is less frequent, but the high draw propensity and potential for a tight match give it a low-probability chance.
- Derry City: 3 of 17 matches ended in a draw at both half-time and full-time (18%).
- Shelbourne: 3 of 16 matches ended Draw/Draw (19%).
- Last 5 H2H: no Draw/Draw outcomes, but 2 matches were draws at half-time.
- Both teams have high overall draw rates (Derry 47%, Shelbourne 38%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High BTTS rates for both sides, especially Shelbourne's 75% overall and away, and the recent H2H pattern of both scoring, make this likely.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Derry City: BTTS in 10 of 17 league matches (59%); at home, BTTS in 5 of 8 (63%).
- Shelbourne: BTTS in 12 of 16 league matches (75%); away, BTTS in 6 of 8 (75%).
- Derry average 1.1 goals scored, 1.2 conceded; Shelbourne average 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H and both teams' home/away splits show a tendency for higher-scoring games, with over 2.5 occurring in the majority of relevant matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had over 2.5 goals (2-1, 2-1, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0).
- Derry home matches: 5 of 8 had over 2.5 goals (63%).
- Shelbourne away matches: 5 of 8 had over 2.5 goals (63%).
- Both teams average combined goals per match: Derry 2.3, Shelbourne 3.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to see first-half goals, especially at home for Derry and away for Shelbourne, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- Derry City: first-half goals in 11 of 17 matches (65%); at home, in 6 of 8 (75%).
- Shelbourne: first-half goals in 10 of 16 matches (63%); away, in 6 of 8 (75%).
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 3 matches (60%).
- Derry average 0.5 first-half goals, concede 0.4; Shelbourne average 0.6 scored, 0.7 conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High frequency of second-half goals for both teams and recent H2H trends suggest a decent chance of over 1.5 second-half goals, though confidence is tempered by the specific line.
- Derry City: second-half goals in 13 of 17 matches (76%); average 0.6 second-half goals scored, 0.8 conceded.
- Shelbourne: second-half goals in 13 of 16 matches (81%); average 0.9 scored, 0.8 conceded.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals in 4 matches, with 3 having over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Combined second-half goal averages: Derry 1.4, Shelbourne 1.7.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low historical rates of both teams scoring in the first half for both sides and in recent H2H make it unlikely.
- Derry City: both teams scored in first half in only 4 of 17 matches (24%).
- Shelbourne: both teams scored in first half in 5 of 16 matches (31%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in first half in only 1 match (20%).
- Derry first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.4 conceded; Shelbourne: 0.6 scored, 0.7 conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's low clean sheet rate and Shelbourne's consistent scoring, especially away, make a home clean sheet improbable.
- Derry City have kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 17 matches (18%); at home, 2 of 8 (25%).
- Shelbourne have failed to score in only 3 of 16 matches (19%); away, failed to score in 1 of 8 (13%).
- Last 5 H2H: Shelbourne scored in 4 matches (80%).
- Derry concede 1.2 goals per match overall, 1.4 at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostShelbourne to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's low clean sheet rate and Derry's ability to score in most H2H meetings suggest an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 16 matches (19%); away, 2 of 8 (25%).
- Derry City have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches (29%); at home, failed to score in 2 of 8 (25%).
- Last 5 H2H: Derry scored in 4 matches (80%).
- Shelbourne concede 1.5 goals per match overall, 1.1 away.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDerry City to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages hover around 10, and recent H2H has seen totals near the line, but the low confidence reflects the narrow margin and variability.
- Derry City average 5.5 corners per match, concede 4.5 opponent corners; total average 10.0.
- Shelbourne average 5.5 corners per match, concede 5.1 opponent corners; total average 10.6.
- Last 5 H2H corner totals: 6, 6, 8, 10, 9 (average 7.8, but two recent matches had 10 and 9).
- Derry home corners: average 6.1 for, 4.0 against; Shelbourne away: 5.4 for, 5.0 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's high card count, especially away, and the recent H2H trend of card-heavy matches support over 4.5 cards.
- Derry City average 2.5 yellow cards per match, opponents average 2.1; total average 4.6.
- Shelbourne average 3.4 yellow cards per match, opponents average 2.1; total average 5.5.
- Last 5 H2H card counts: 7, 7, 5, 4, 2 (average 5.0, with 3 of 5 over 4.5).
- Derry home cards: 2.4 for, 2.1 against; Shelbourne away: 3.6 for, 2.0 against.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W1-2ShelbournevDerry CityApr 17, 2026PRE

L1-2Derry CityvShelbourneMar 13, 2026PRE

D1-1Derry CityvShelbourneSep 19, 2025PRE

W0-1ShelbournevDerry CityJun 20, 2025PRE

W2-0Derry CityvShelbourneMay 2, 2025PRE

Derry City: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Derry City	17	4	8	5	21-21	20	DLDDW
5	Shelbourne	16	5	6	5	24-24	21	WDDWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Derry City

D2-2WaterfordMay 15PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 8PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 4PRE

D1-1BohemiansMay 1PRE

W1-0Shamrock RoversApr 24PRE

W2-1ShelbourneApr 17PRE

D2-2DundalkApr 10PRE

D0-0Sligo RoversApr 6PRE

L1-2Galway UnitedApr 3PRE

D2-2Drogheda UnitedMar 20PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.Mar 16PRE

L1-2ShelbourneMar 13PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversMar 6PRE

W4-2WaterfordFeb 27PRE

L0-1BohemiansFeb 20PRE

Shelbourne

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.May 15PRE

D0-0Sligo RoversMay 8PRE

D2-2BohemiansMay 4PRE

W2-1DundalkMay 1PRE

L3-4Drogheda UnitedApr 24PRE

L1-2Derry CityApr 17PRE

L2-3Shamrock RoversApr 6PRE

L2-3DundalkApr 3PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMar 21PRE

D0-0BohemiansMar 16PRE

W2-1Derry CityMar 13PRE

D2-2Shamrock RoversMar 9PRE

L2-3St Patrick's Athl.Mar 6PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedFeb 27PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedFeb 20PRE

Squad & Injuries

Derry City

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Shelbourne

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Yes

No

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Derry City

Shelbourne

Squad & Injuries

Derry City

Shelbourne