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Predictions graded

Shelbourne2Shamrock Rovers1

HT 1–0Fri 12 Jun 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 25%–75%ShotsShots 6–15On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 1–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Jun 2026, 01:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Back both teams to score (1.78) and over 2.5 goals (1.95) in a Dublin derby where recent H2H and Shelbourne's leaky home defense point to an open game.

The double chance Draw or Shamrock Rovers (1.45) is the safest play given Shelbourne's one home win all season, but avoid the short-priced first-half BTTS 'No' and the Shamrock -1 handicap.

Context

Shelbourne's home record: 1 win, 5 draws, 4 losses from 10 games.
- They have conceded 17 goals at home, averaging 1.7 per game.
- Only one clean sheet at Tolka Park all season.
Shamrock Rovers lead at halftime in 67% of their league matches.
- Shelbourne have failed to score in the first half in 6 of their 10 home games.
- Rovers average 1.0 first-half goals per game; Shelbourne concede 0.7 first-half goals at home.
Last six H2H results: 3-2, 2-2, 1-0, 2-1, 2-2, 1-1.
- Both teams scored in five of those six matches.
- Four of the last five meetings produced over 2.5 goals.
In a May 21 club preview, O'Brien said the focus was on improving home form and getting another clean sheet.
- Shelbourne have conceded in 9 of 10 home games, so a defensive shift is plausible.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's superior league position and Shelbourne's poor home form give the visitors a clear edge, though the draw is a significant possibility.
- Shamrock Rovers are 1st in the league with 40 points from 20 games; Shelbourne are 5th with 26 points from 19 games.
- Shamrock Rovers have won 4 of their last 5 away matches against teams outside the bottom two.
- Shelbourne have won only 1 of 10 home matches this season, drawing 5 and losing 4.
- Shamrock Rovers have the best away record in the league among top teams, with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostShamrock RoversEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's inability to win at home combined with Shamrock's strong away form makes the visitors avoiding defeat highly probable.
- Shelbourne have won only 1 of 10 home matches this season.
- Shamrock Rovers have lost only 3 of 10 away matches, with 4 wins and 3 draws.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Shelbourne have won only once, with Shamrock winning twice and two draws.
- Shelbourne's home goal difference is -3; Shamrock's away goal difference is +3.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Shamrock RoversEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's tendency to start strong gives them a slight edge to lead at the break, but Shelbourne's resilience keeps confidence low.
- Shamrock Rovers lead at halftime in 67% of their matches this season.
- Shelbourne trail at halftime in only 20% of matches, but that rate increases at home against top sides.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Shamrock Rovers led at halftime twice, with two draws and one Shelbourne lead.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored first in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostShamrock RoversEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Shamrock's superior quality in the second half is a plausible scenario, but the specific sequence is low probability.
- Shelbourne have drawn at halftime in 60% of their matches this season.
- Shamrock Rovers have won 60% of their matches overall, often pulling away in the second half.
- In the last H2H at this venue, the score was 2-2 with a draw at halftime.
- Shelbourne have lost 4 of 10 home matches, with 3 of those losses coming after a level first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Shamrock RoversEstimated chance22%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern strongly favors both teams scoring, and both sides have consistent scoring records, making a repeat likely.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 H2H league meetings, with only one clean sheet in that six-game run.
- Shelbourne have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches; Shamrock Rovers have scored in 12 of their last 15.
- Shelbourne's home record shows 14 goals scored and 17 conceded in 10 home games, averaging 3.1 total goals per home match.
- Shamrock Rovers' away record shows 13 goals scored and 10 conceded in 10 away games, with both teams scoring in 6 of those 10.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history and Shelbourne's leaky home defense point to a higher-scoring affair, despite Shamrock's generally solid defense.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Shelbourne's last 15 matches average 2.7 total goals; Shamrock Rovers' last 15 average 2.2, but H2H games trend higher.
- Shelbourne's home matches average 3.1 total goals; Shamrock Rovers' away matches average 2.3, but against top-half teams they concede more.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored 3+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches against non-bottom sides.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's strong first-half scoring record and Shelbourne's vulnerability early in games suggest at least one first-half goal is likely.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, there has been a first-half goal in 4 matches.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored in the first half in 10 of their last 15 matches, averaging 1.0 first-half goals.
- Shelbourne have conceded in the first half in 7 of their last 15 matches, including in 3 of their last 5 home games.
- Shamrock Rovers lead at halftime in 67% of their matches this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's strong first-half defense and Shelbourne's slow starts at home make it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in the first half only once.
- Shelbourne average 0.7 first-half goals; Shamrock Rovers average 1.0, but Shelbourne concede only 0.7 first-half goals.
- Shamrock Rovers have kept a first-half clean sheet in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Shelbourne have failed to score in the first half in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of active second halves and both teams' ability to score late supports over 1.5 second-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, second-half goals averaged 2.2 per match.
- Shelbourne concede 0.9 second-half goals per match at home; Shamrock Rovers score 0.8 second-half goals away.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored in the second half in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Shelbourne's home matches see 1.8 second-half goals on average.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's consistent home scoring and Shamrock's vulnerability on the road make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Shamrock Rovers have kept only 3 clean sheets in 10 away matches this season.
- Shelbourne have scored in 8 of their 10 home matches, failing to score only against Derry City and Bohemians.
- In the last 6 H2H meetings, Shamrock Rovers have kept only one clean sheet against Shelbourne.
- Shelbourne average 1.4 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonShelbourne to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's home scoring struggles against strong opposition make over 1.5 goals a stretch, though not impossible.
- Shelbourne have scored 2+ goals in only 3 of their 10 home matches this season.
- Against top-4 teams at home, Shelbourne have scored 2+ goals only once in 4 attempts.
- Shamrock Rovers concede 1.0 goals per away match on average.
- Shelbourne's recent form shows 1.4 goals per match overall, but only 1.2 at home.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonShelbourne over 1.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock's attacking form and Shelbourne's defensive frailties at home give the visitors a good chance to score at least twice.
- Shamrock Rovers average 1.3 goals per away match, but have scored 2+ in 5 of their last 10 away games.
- Shelbourne concede 1.7 goals per home match, including 2+ in 6 of 10 home games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Shamrock Rovers have scored 2+ goals in 3 matches.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 matches overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostShamrock Rovers over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The corner averages and recent H2H trends support a total above 9.5, with both teams contributing evenly.
- Shelbourne average 4.9 corners per match; Shamrock Rovers average 4.7, combining for 9.6 on average.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were 7, 9, 7, 9, and 9, averaging 8.2 but trending up in recent encounters.
- Shelbourne's home matches average 10.2 total corners; Shamrock's away matches average 9.4.
- Both teams have seen over 9.5 corners in 6 of their last 10 combined matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary averages and H2H history point to a match with multiple cards, likely exceeding 4.5.
- Shelbourne average 3.1 yellow cards per match; Shamrock Rovers average 2.7, combining for 5.8 on average.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were 5, 5, 4, 6, and 5, averaging 5.0.
- Shelbourne's home matches average 5.4 total cards; Shamrock's away matches average 5.1.
- Both teams have seen over 4.5 cards in 7 of their last 10 combined matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L3-2Shamrock RoversvShelbourneApr 6, 2026PRE

D2-2ShelbournevShamrock RoversMar 9, 2026PRE

W0-1Shamrock RoversvShelbourneOct 10, 2025PRE

L1-2ShelbournevShamrock RoversJun 13, 2025PRE

D2-2Shamrock RoversvShelbourneApr 25, 2025PRE

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Shelbourne	19	6	8	5	27-26	26	DDWWD
1	Shamrock Rovers Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	20	12	4	4	31-17	40	WWLLW

14pt gap between teamsShamrock Rovers leads the league

Recent Form

Shelbourne

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 29PRE

D0-0Derry CityMay 25PRE

W2-1WaterfordMay 22PRE

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.May 15PRE

D0-0Sligo RoversMay 8PRE

D2-2BohemiansMay 4PRE

W2-1DundalkMay 1PRE

L3-4Drogheda UnitedApr 24PRE

L1-2Derry CityApr 17PRE

L2-3Shamrock RoversApr 6PRE

L2-3DundalkApr 3PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMar 21PRE

D0-0BohemiansMar 16PRE

W2-1Derry CityMar 13PRE

D2-2Shamrock RoversMar 9PRE

Shamrock Rovers

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.May 29PRE

W2-1BohemiansMay 25PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversMay 22PRE

L0-1DundalkMay 15PRE

W3-1Galway UnitedMay 8PRE

W4-1Drogheda UnitedMay 4PRE

W1-0WaterfordMay 1PRE

L0-1Derry CityApr 24PRE

W2-1BohemiansApr 17PRE

W1-0St Patrick's Athl.Apr 10PRE

W3-2ShelbourneApr 6PRE

D1-1WaterfordApr 3PRE

W2-0Galway UnitedMar 20PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedMar 16PRE

W2-0Sligo RoversMar 13PRE

Squad & Injuries

Shelbourne

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Shamrock Rovers

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 2.5

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

Shamrock Rovers

Over 9.5

Over 4.5

Shelbourne to score

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Shamrock Rovers

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Shelbourne

Shamrock Rovers

Squad & Injuries

Shelbourne

Shamrock Rovers