Ham-Kam0Rosenborg3

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 12–21On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 12:57 · Europe/Bucharest

HamKam's Briskeby record, including a 4-0 win over Rosenborg there in 2025, meets a Rosenborg side unbeaten in five league games and 4-0 winners in September's meeting.

Rosenborg are the likelier winners, but their 1.57 price asks for more than the away record supports, while HamKam to win or draw at 2.3, the draw at 4.2 and a level first half at 2.6 all hold up.

Context

The ban is served and Rosenborg's leading scorer is selectable again for the Saturday 18:00 kickoff at Briskeby. Chiakha is joint top scorer in the league on 14, so his availability restores the most direct route to goal for a visiting side that will be expected to dominate the ball. The report comes from DZfoot, a specialist outlet on Algerian internationals, rather than from the club, and Rosenborg scored three without him at Sarpsborg, so read the return as a selection gain rather than a fix for a misfiring attack.
- Amin Chiakha missed Rosenborg's 3-0 league win at Sarpsborg 08 on 18 October through a one-match suspension, triggered by his fourth yellow card of the season against Sandefjord on 10 October.
- He is level with Viking's Peter Christiansen on 14 goals, the joint leading scorers in the Eliteserien after 23 rounds.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Rosenborg's own update on 21 October is unusually specific: the injury happened in the training session before the Sarpsborg 08 game, he was pulled from the squad, and scans confirmed a thigh problem with no return date. It narrows the attacking rotation available for a Saturday evening away match, and it arrives in the same week the club is managing Chiakha's return from suspension. The squad still lists several senior forward options, so the effect is depth rather than a missing starter, and no timeline has been given that would rule him in or out of the following fixtures.
- Rosenborg said Nordli was injured in training ahead of the Sarpsborg 08 fixture and was therefore not in the matchday squad.
- The club said examinations showed a thigh injury that will keep the 26-year-old out of action for a period going forward.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest
HamKam's home form inside this window is the weakest part of their season: two draws, three defeats, no clean sheet and no first-half goal, with a 1-5 home defeat by Molde among them. Their full league home record of five wins, two draws and four defeats from 11 is stronger, and it includes a 4-0 win over Rosenborg, so the five-match run is a recent sample rather than the whole picture.
- HamKam's five home matches tracked between 18 July and 17 October 2026 produced no wins, two draws and three defeats.
- Across those five home games they averaged 1.0 goal scored and 2.8 conceded, kept no clean sheet and scored no first-half goal.
- Their season-long Eliteserien home record is five wins, two draws and four defeats from 11, including a 4-0 win over Rosenborg in September 2025.
Mampassi's first league start came in Rosenborg's most comfortable away result of the autumn, a 3-0 win at Sarpsborg 08 in which the defence was not breached. It matters for this fixture only as a selection question: Rosenborg's back line has been changed by availability issues this month, and a second consecutive start at Briskeby would confirm the switch rather than a one-off. The club's note is a post-match social post that says nothing about the pecking order, and Sarpsborg offered little, so treat it as a name to watch rather than an established partnership.
- Rosenborg marked that Mark Mampassi kept a clean sheet in his first Eliteserien match from the start, in the 3-0 win away to Sarpsborg 08 on 18 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's stronger season and recent scoring form, plus the September 4-0 win, make them clear favourites.
- Rosenborg are 5th with 37 points; HamKam are 12th with 26.
- Rosenborg's recent league form is W-D-W-W-W.
- Rosenborg won the September meeting 4-0.
- Rosenborg have 10 wins in 13 tracked competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRosenborgEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's early scoring and HamKam's blank first halves at home favour an away lead.
- Rosenborg average 1.31 first-half goals and concede 0.31.
- HamKam have scored no first-half goals in their last five home matches in this window.
- Rosenborg scored first-half goals in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRosenborgEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
HamKam's home record includes draws and Rosenborg's away league record is not dominant, so a tight game can stay level. Rosenborg's stronger season and recent scoring form, plus the September 4-0 win, make them clear favourites.
- HamKam have drawn 2 of 11 home league games this season.
- Rosenborg have drawn 1 of 11 away league games this season.
- Rosenborg are 5th with 37 points; HamKam are 12th with 26.
- Rosenborg's recent league form is W-D-W-W-W.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or RosenborgEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have recent level first halves, so the interval can stay tied. Rosenborg's early scoring and HamKam's blank first halves at home favour an away lead.
- HamKam have been level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
- Rosenborg have been level at half-time in one of their last six matches.
- Rosenborg average 1.31 first-half goals and concede 0.31.
- HamKam have scored no first-half goals in their last five home matches in this window.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or RosenborgEstimated chance86%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Rosenborg's scoring rate and HamKam's concession rate point to at least three goals.
- Rosenborg average 3.38 goals scored in 13 tracked competitive matches.
- HamKam concede 2.13 goals per match across 15 tracked matches.
- The September meeting produced four goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both sides have frequent scoring evidence, and HamKam at home usually find a goal.
- HamKam scored in 10 of 15 tracked matches.
- Rosenborg scored in all 13 tracked competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Rosenborg's 13 and 7 of HamKam's 15 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's recent away scoring and September 4-0 win make two or more goals likely.
- Rosenborg average 3.5 goals in their last eight away matches in this window.
- Rosenborg scored four at HamKam in September.
- HamKam concede 2.13 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRosenborg over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
HamKam's recent home scoring is low and Rosenborg's away defence has been solid.
- HamKam average 1.0 goal in their last five home matches in this window.
- Rosenborg kept four clean sheets in their last eight away matches in this window.
- HamKam were shut out by Rosenborg in September.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHam-Kam under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Rosenborg's early scoring makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Rosenborg average 1.31 first-half goals.
- Rosenborg scored first-half goals in five of their last six matches.
- HamKam concede 0.80 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates point to two or more goals after the break.
- Rosenborg average 2.08 second-half goals.
- HamKam average 1.07 second-half goals.
- Rosenborg's last six matches produced two or more second-half goals in four.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance69%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages and the September meeting sit near or below the line.
- HamKam average 3.69 corners and Rosenborg 6.64, a combined 10.33.
- The September meeting produced nine corners.
- HamKam's recent matches averaged about eight corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent shot totals often clear the line.
- Rosenborg average 16.55 shots and HamKam 10.08, a combined 26.63.
- Rosenborg's recent matches produced 34, 29 and 31 shots.
- HamKam's recent matches produced 40 and 33 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 26.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target averages are just above the line.
- Rosenborg average 7.55 shots on target and HamKam 3.23, a combined 10.78.
- Rosenborg's last five matches produced 11, 14, 15, 19 and 11 shots on target.
- The September meeting had 11 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's recent matches often carry enough cards to clear the line.
- Rosenborg average 2.2 yellow cards and their opponents 1.7.
- HamKam average 1.45 yellow cards and their opponents 1.09.
- Rosenborg's recent matches produced 5, 8, 1, 5 and 2 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance56%

Prediction history

Rosenborg: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Rosenborg matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Rosenborg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien