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TromsoHam-Kam

Sun 20 Sept 2026, 15:0020 Sept, 15:00

14Probabilities0Priced7Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Tromsø's dominant home record and HamKam's one-win away season point to a home victory, but the 1.48 price is fair rather than generous.

The real value sits in goals: Over 2.5 at 1.55 and Tromsø Over 1.5 team goals at 1.50 are the top plays, while HamKam away, Tromsø -2.5/-3 handicaps and the home clean sheet are best avoided.

Context

Tromso sit fourth with a strong home record while Ham-Kam are eleventh and only three points above the relegation line, and Tromso have five players missing through injury or suspension.

Tromso are fourth in Eliteserien and have the stronger home record in this fixture, but they go into it without several squad members.
Defenders C. Oyvann, V. Skjaervik and M. Tonnessen are all out injured, so Tromso cannot field their usual defensive group and must use replacements or a changed back line. Midfielder D. Edvardsson is suspended after accumulating yellow cards, removing a central option, while attacker D. Braut misses out with a hip injury. The combined effect is a thinner squad across three areas of the pitch, and the defensive absences are the most likely to change how Tromso set up at home.
- Defenders C. Oyvann, V. Skjaervik and M. Tonnessen are all listed as missing through injury.
- Midfielder D. Edvardsson is suspended after receiving yellow cards.
- Attacker D. Braut is out with a hip injury.
Ham-Kam are eleventh in Eliteserien, three points above the relegation line, and their results on the road have been much worse than at home.
In ten away league matches Ham-Kam have one win, three draws and six defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 22. Their home record is five wins, two draws and three defeats, so the gap between the two is large. Playing at Tromso, who have lost only once at home this season, puts Ham-Kam in the part of their season where they have struggled most.
- Ham-Kam away record in Eliteserien: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats from 10 matches, 10 goals scored and 22 conceded.
- Ham-Kam home record: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from 10 matches.
- Ham-Kam are 11th with 23 points, three points above the relegation line.
Tromso are fourth in Eliteserien and are in the Conference League qualification place.
At home Tromso have taken 21 points from ten matches, scoring 18 and conceding 7. Their overall away record is four wins, two draws and four defeats, so the home form is clearly better than their form on the road. Ham-Kam visit with the worst away record in the division, which makes Tromso's home strength directly relevant to how this match is likely to be played.
- Tromso home record in Eliteserien: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat from 10 matches, 18 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- Tromso away record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from 10 matches.
- Tromso are fourth with 35 points.
HamKam were listed in a 3-5-2 for the 1-5 league loss to Molde on 13 September and again in the same shape for the 2-0 cup win at Kjelsås on 16 September.
That repeated back-three and wing-back structure gives Tromsø a current reference for how HamKam set their defensive width and mark centrally. The sample covers two matches in different competitions, so it shows the shape HamKam have used rather than guaranteeing they keep it here.
- HamKam were listed in a 3-5-2 for the 1-5 league loss to Molde on 13 September.
- HamKam were again listed in a 3-5-2 for the 2-0 cup win at Kjelsås on 16 September.
- HamKam’s report said they conceded twice in quick succession after equalising against Molde.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:17 · Europe/BucharestHamKam: Kollapser i andre omgangwww.hamkam.no · 13 Sep 2026HamKam: To hodestøt sikret Kamma-avansementwww.hamkam.no · 16 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is decisive: Tromso's 6-3-1 home record with 0.7 goals conceded per home game faces a Ham-Kam side with 1 away win all season, reinforced by a dominant recent H2H pattern.
- Tromso home record 2026 Eliteserien: 6W-3D-1L, 18 goals for, only 7 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Ham-Kam away record: 1W-3D-6L, 10 scored, 22 conceded in 10 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Tromso won 4-1 at Ham-Kam on 2026-07-18 and 3-1 on 2025-06-22; Ham-Kam's only wins were 1-0 and 2-0 home fixtures.
- Tromso last 5 Eliteserien: 4-0 vs Valerenga, 4-1 at Ham-Kam, 6-2 at Aalesund; 2.3 goals per game average over last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerTromsoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's near-unbeaten home record combined with Ham-Kam's poor away form and negative H2H psychology makes the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Tromso home: 9 of 10 home matches unbeaten (6W-3D-1L) in 2026 Eliteserien.
- Ham-Kam away: only 1 win in 10 away matches, 4 of 10 away games lost by 2+ goals.
- H2H last 5: Tromso unbeaten in 4 of 5 meetings, including a 4-1 away win in July 2026.
- Ham-Kam form LLDLD with 41 goals conceded in 20 league games (2.05 per game).
BetBugs · Double ChanceTromso or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso's superior first-half scoring rate and Ham-Kam's frequent half-time deficits (60% trailing) make Tromso the most likely first-half leader.
- Tromso led at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches; Ham-Kam trailed at half-time in 60% of last 15.
- Tromso average 1.0 first-half goals vs Ham-Kam's 0.5 first-half goals scored.
- H2H 2026-07-18: Tromso led 1-0 at the break away at Ham-Kam.
- Ham-Kam conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 Eliteserien matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerTromsoEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso's home dominance and Ham-Kam's tendency to trail at half-time make a Tromso half-time/full-time double the most plausible HT-FT combination.
- Tromso led at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches and won 10 of 20 league games.
- Ham-Kam trailed at half-time in 60% of last 15 matches and lost 9 of 20 league games.
- H2H 2026-07-18: Tromso led at half-time and won 4-1 away.
- Tromso home record: 6W-3D-1L with 18 goals scored and 7 conceded.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleTromso / TromsoEstimated chance38%

Goals7 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined goal averages exceed 3.4 per game and the recent H2H pattern is high-scoring, with Ham-Kam's leaky defence (41 conceded in 20) facing a Tromso attack averaging 2.3 goals.
- Tromso average 2.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game over last 15 matches (3.8 combined).
- Ham-Kam average 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded per game over last 15 (3.4 combined).
- H2H last 5 produced 5, 1, 4, 2 and 6 goals — 4 of 5 went over 2.5.
- Ham-Kam conceded 5 to Molde, 4 to Rosenborg and 3 to Brann in recent league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's recent defensive vulnerability (conceding in 5 of 6 league games) and Ham-Kam's ability to score away from home (1 goal per away game) support both teams finding the net.
- Ham-Kam scored in 4 of their last 5 Eliteserien matches, including 2-2 vs Kristiansund and 2-2 at Sandefjord.
- Tromso conceded in 5 of their last 6 Eliteserien matches, including 5 against Rosenborg and 3 against Molde.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings, including the 4-1 and 3-1 Tromso wins.
- Tromso home clean sheet rate: 3 of 10 home matches; Ham-Kam away scoring rate: 10 goals in 10 away games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's tendency to score early at home (1.0 first-half goals average) against a Ham-Kam side that trails at half-time in 60% of matches creates a reasonable case for first-half goals.
- Tromso average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Ham-Kam average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Tromso led at half-time in 33% of matches; Ham-Kam trailed at half-time in 60% of matches.
- H2H 2026-07-18: Tromso led 1-0 at half-time in a 4-1 win; 2025-06-22: 3-1 with first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half than the first, and Ham-Kam's recent collapses (conceding 4 second-half goals to Molde) point to second-half goals.
- Tromso average 1.3 second-half goals scored (2.3 total minus 1.0 first-half) over last 15.
- Ham-Kam average 1.0 second-half goals scored (1.5 total minus 0.5 first-half) over last 15.
- Ham-Kam conceded 5 to Molde with 4 second-half goals; conceded 4 to Rosenborg with 3 second-half goals.
- H2H 2026-07-18: 4-1 with 3 second-half goals; 2025-06-22: 3-1 with 2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's strong home scoring rate (1.8 per home game) against Ham-Kam's leaky away defence (2.2 conceded per away game) makes 2+ Tromso goals highly likely.
- Tromso average 2.3 goals scored per game over last 15 matches.
- Tromso home record: 18 goals in 10 home league matches (1.8 per game).
- Ham-Kam away record: 22 goals conceded in 10 away matches (2.2 per game).
- H2H 2026-07-18: Tromso scored 4 away at Ham-Kam; 2025-06-22: Tromso scored 3 away.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalTromso over 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's away scoring rate (1.0 per game) against Tromso's strong home defence (0.7 conceded per home game) makes 2+ away goals unlikely.
- Ham-Kam average 1.5 goals scored per game over last 15, but only 1.0 per away game in 2026 Eliteserien.
- Ham-Kam away record: 10 goals in 10 away matches, with 4 of those coming in one game (5-0 cup vs Trysil).
- Tromso home record: only 7 goals conceded in 10 home league matches (0.7 per game).
- Ham-Kam scored 1 goal or fewer in 6 of their last 8 Eliteserien away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHam-Kam under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso's solid home defensive record (0.7 conceded per home game) and Ham-Kam's frequent away blanks make a home clean sheet a reasonable but not high-probability outcome.
- Tromso kept 3 clean sheets in 10 home league matches (30%) in 2026 Eliteserien.
- Ham-Kam failed to score in 4 of their last 8 Eliteserien away matches.
- Tromso home: 7 goals conceded in 10 home matches (0.7 per game).
- Ham-Kam away: 10 goals in 10 away matches, but 5 came in one cup game vs lower-league Trysil.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHam-Kam not to scoreEstimated chance42%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 4 corners per game, and recent matches show corner counts frequently reaching double figures, though the combined average sits just below the line.
- Tromso average 4.1 corners per game over last 15 matches.
- Ham-Kam average 4.2 corners per game over last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 8.3 corners per game across both teams.
- Recent matches: Tromso 4-4 vs Rosenborg, Ham-Kam 6-2 vs Molde, Ham-Kam 9-4 vs Kristiansund.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 12 fouls per game with combined yellow card averages near 3, and Ham-Kam's red card tendency adds to the over case.
- Tromso average 12.5 fouls and 1.3 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Ham-Kam average 13.0 fouls and 1.4 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 2.7 yellow cards per game plus red card risk (Ham-Kam 0.3 red cards per game).
- Recent matches: Tromso 3 yellows vs Rosenborg, Ham-Kam 3 yellows vs Sarpsborg and 2 yellows vs Molde.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots-on-target averages sit just above the line, and Tromso's home attacking volume against a leaky Ham-Kam defence supports the over.
- Tromso average 5.3 shots on target per game over last 15 matches.
- Ham-Kam average 3.5 shots on target per game over last 15 matches.
- Combined average of 8.8 shots on target per game.
- Recent matches: Tromso 9 vs Rosenborg, 7 vs Sarpsborg; Ham-Kam 6 vs Aalesund, 5 vs Kristiansund.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

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Prediction history

Tromso's Over 2.5 goals projections have recently been fulfilled in 3 of 4 matches

Tromso's Over 2.5 goals projections were fulfilled in 3 of 4 recent matches. The 3 fulfilled predictions exceeded the 2.3 expected from an average estimated probability of 56.3%, and matched projections averaged 56.7% versus 55% for missed ones. The current 72% probability sits above the historical range of 55% to 60%, while the sample shows 1 of 2 home and 2 of 2 away projections fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Tromso4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·Eliteserien

Ham-Kam1-4 Tromso

Tromso

BetBugsOver 2.5 goals·55%→5 total goals

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Eliteserien

Ham-Kam1-4

Tromso

Over 2.5 goals