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Predictions graded

Rosenborg3Kristiansund0

HT 2–0Sun 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 17–9On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 08:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Rosenborg's internal turmoil and poor home form make their 1.60 win odds poor value; the best betting edge is Over 3.5 cards at 2.50, where our 60% probability estimate offers a +20-point edge in this relegation six-pointer.

Context

Freyr Alexandersson was appointed on 17 June and described the situation as 'critical'.
- An extraordinary general meeting is set for 19 August after a no-confidence process against the board.
- The board protocol confirms all board members will place their seats at the meeting.
Svensson and Pereira started their first match in two months in the 5 July friendly.
- Selnæs returned to the XI after being out since the 16 May Aalesund game.
- All three are expected to be available for selection against Kristiansund.
Amund Skiri is still listed as head coach on the club's official staff page.
- The 3 July friendly win at Brann featured a likely core XI with only minor changes.
- Kristiansund have no reported injuries or suspensions heading into the match.
The last Lerkendal meeting finished 1-1 on 1 May 2025.
- Kristiansund played with 10 men for most of the match after an early red card.
- Alioune Ndour scored a stoppage-time penalty to equalize for Kristiansund.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rosenborg or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Rosenborg are unlikely to lose at home given Kristiansund's travel struggles and the historical difficulty Kristiansund have had winning at Lerkendal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's home advantage and slightly better recent form, combined with Kristiansund's poor away record, give them a moderate edge in this relegation six-pointer.
- Rosenborg home record: 2W-2D-2L, 9 goals scored, 9 conceded in 6 matches.
- Kristiansund away record: 1W-1D-4L, 4 goals scored, 10 conceded in 6 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Rosenborg 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; at home: 1 win, 2 draws.
- Rosenborg last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L; Kristiansund last 5: 1W-0D-4L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRosenborgEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg are unlikely to lose at home given Kristiansund's travel struggles and the historical difficulty Kristiansund have had winning at Lerkendal.
- Rosenborg have lost only 2 of 6 home matches this season.
- Kristiansund have lost 4 of 6 away matches, winning only once.
- H2H at Rosenborg: 1 win, 2 draws in last 3 meetings.
- Rosenborg's home goal difference is even (9-9), indicating competitive but not dominant performances.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRosenborg or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low halftime lead percentages and often go into the break level, suggesting a drawn first half is a plausible outcome.
- Rosenborg have led at halftime in only 20% of matches; Kristiansund in 21%.
- Rosenborg have trailed at halftime in 33% of matches; Kristiansund in 43%.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at halftime, 2 Rosenborg leads, 1 Kristiansund lead.
- Rosenborg's last 5 home matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of Rosenborg drawing at halftime and then pushing for a win at home, combined with Kristiansund's second-half fragility on the road, makes this a low-probability but possible scenario.
- Rosenborg have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Rosenborg have won 2 of 6 home matches, both after leading at halftime.
- Kristiansund have lost 4 of 6 away matches, often after being level or behind at halftime.
- H2H: In the last meeting at Rosenborg, it was 0-0 at halftime and ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / RosenborgEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses have been leaky, and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, suggesting a decent chance for at least three goals.
- Rosenborg home matches average 3.0 total goals (9 scored, 9 conceded in 6 games).
- Kristiansund away matches average 2.33 total goals (4 scored, 10 conceded in 6 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have conceded 18 goals in 11 matches overall, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both sides showing consistent scoring and conceding patterns, and historical H2H evidence, both teams are likely to find the net.
- Rosenborg have scored in 5 of 6 home matches; Kristiansund have scored in 4 of 6 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Rosenborg average 1.5 goals conceded at home; Kristiansund average 1.67 conceded away.
- Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and historical matchups show frequent first-half scoring, making over 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Rosenborg average 0.7 first-half goals scored at home; Kristiansund average 0.5 first-half goals scored away.
- Rosenborg concede 0.8 first-half goals at home; Kristiansund concede 0.6 first-half goals away.
- In the last 5 H2H, 4 matches had a first-half goal.
- Rosenborg have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to open up as both teams chase a crucial result, and historical data supports a higher likelihood of multiple goals after the break.
- Rosenborg score 0.4 second-half goals on average at home; concede 0.7.
- Kristiansund score 0.7 second-half goals away; concede 1.0.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams have seen 60% of their total goals conceded come in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's home matches tend to produce corners, and Kristiansund's away games also see a fair number, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation.
- Rosenborg average 5.6 corners per match overall; Kristiansund average 4.1.
- Rosenborg home matches average 6.0 corners (based on available data: 0,2,11,1,7,11,7,16,4 in recent home games).
- Kristiansund away matches average 4.3 corners (based on available data: 6,4,6,4,0,0).
- Last H2H at Rosenborg: corner data unavailable, but overall match tempo suggests high corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card averages, and the high-stakes nature of this relegation battle is likely to push the total cards over 3.5.
- Rosenborg average 2.0 yellow cards per match; Kristiansund average 2.5.
- In Rosenborg's last 5 home matches, total cards (both teams) averaged 4.4.
- In Kristiansund's last 5 away matches, total cards averaged 4.0.
- Relegation six-pointer context often increases disciplinary actions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

L4-1Kristiansund BKvRosenborgJun 22, 2025ELI

D1-1RosenborgvKristiansund BKMay 1, 2025ELI

W0-4Kristiansund BKvRosenborgDec 1, 2024ELI

W2-1RosenborgvKristiansund BKMay 26, 2024ELI

D2-2RosenborgvKristiansund BKMar 14, 2024FRI

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Rosenborg Relegation - OBOS-ligaen	11	2	3	6	9-18	9	DLLWL
14	Kristiansund Eliteserien (Relegation)	11	3	2	6	11-18	11	LLWLL

2pt gap between teamsRosenborg in relegation zoneKristiansund in relegation zone

Recent Form

Rosenborg

W2-1MoldeJul 5FRI

D2-2Bodo/GlimtMay 29ELI

L0-2KFUM OsloMay 25ELI

L2-3AalesundMay 16ELI

W2-0LillestromMay 10ELI

L0-3VikingMay 1ELI

D1-1BrannApr 25ELI

D0-0SandefjordApr 18ELI

W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 12ELI

L0-2TromsoApr 6ELI

W4-1Stjørdals-BlinkMar 26FRI

L0-2ValerengaMar 22ELI

L0-2MoldeMar 14ELI

L0-1ValerengaFeb 27FRI

W2-1StartFeb 24FRI

Kristiansund

W2-1BrannJul 3FRI

L0-3AalesundJun 27FRI

L1-3ValerengaMay 29ELI

L1-2VikingMay 24ELI

W2-1LillestromMay 20ELI

L0-1MoldeMay 16ELI

L0-2SandefjordMay 10ELI

D1-1Ham-KamMay 3ELI

D1-1AalesundApr 26ELI

W2-0FredrikstadApr 19ELI

L0-2TromsoApr 11ELI

L0-3Bodo/GlimtApr 6ELI

W4-0BrattvågMar 28FRI

W3-2BrannMar 15ELI

D1-1RanheimMar 8FRI

Squad & Injuries

Rosenborg

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Kristiansund

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 3.5

Rosenborg or Draw

Over 0.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Rosenborg

Rosenborg or Draw

Rosenborg, draw no bet

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Rosenborg

Kristiansund

Squad & Injuries

Rosenborg

Kristiansund