Rosenborg4Ham-Kam0

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 16–5On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Rosenborg are favourites at home, but the odds offer no value.

The best edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05, where our model sees a 55% probability versus the implied 48.8%.

Context

Rosenborg sit 8th in the Eliteserien with 24 points from 18 matches.
At home, Rosenborg have won five, drawn two, and lost two, scoring 18 goals and conceding 10. This home record is much better than their away form, where they have only two wins in nine. Ham-Kam have struggled away, winning just one of nine away matches, so Rosenborg's home strength could be a key factor.
- Rosenborg home record: 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 9 matches, 18 goals scored, 10 conceded.
- Ham-Kam away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches, 10 goals scored, 18 conceded.
Rosenborg head coach Freyr Alexandersson, appointed in June 2026, has established a high-pressing baseline.
His team was described as highly aggressive in and out of possession during his first three league matches. That pressing approach is likely to contest HamKam's buildup, particularly against their recent back-three structure, and may open space behind Rosenborg's defensive line.
- Rosenborg appointed Freyr Alexandersson as head coach on a contract through the end of the 2029 season.
- Rosenborg's 27 August review said the team had been highly offensive with and without the ball during Alexandersson's first three league matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:41 · Europe/BucharestRosenborg: Alexandersson appointed head coachwww.rbk.no · 17 Jun 2026Rosenborg: July awards reviewwww.rbk.no · 27 Aug 2026
Ham-Kam are 10th in the Eliteserien with 23 points from 18 matches.
Ham-Kam's away record is poor: one win, three draws, and five losses, with 10 goals scored and 18 conceded. They have lost their last two away league matches, including a 3-0 defeat at Brann on 16 August. Rosenborg's home form is strong, so Ham-Kam may find it difficult to get a result.
- Ham-Kam away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches, 10 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- Recent away league matches: lost 3-0 at Brann on 16 August, lost 1-0 at Sarpsborg 08 FF on 26 July.
Rosenborg defender M. Mampassi is now available after his August arrival.
He was initially unavailable after signing but came on in the 64th minute against Bodø/Glimt on 30 August. His availability expands Rosenborg's central-defensive cover and rotation options for this match.
- Rosenborg announced Mampassi's 8 August signing and said he would not be available for the following match against Lillestrøm.
- Mampassi entered Rosenborg's 30 August league match against Bodø/Glimt in the 64th minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:41 · Europe/BucharestRosenborg: Mampassi joins the clubwww.rbk.no · 8 Aug 2026Rosenborg: Bodø/Glimt match centrewww.rbk.no · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Rosenborg

1.36fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Rosenborg's strong home record and Ham-Kam's poor away form support a home win, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rosenborg or Draw

1.10fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Rosenborg's home form and Ham-Kam's away struggles make a home win or draw likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits average 3.1 total goals, and Rosenborg's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's strong home form and Ham-Kam's poor away record, combined with recent H2H dominance at Lerkendal, support a home win.
- Rosenborg home record: 5W 2D 2L, 18 goals for, 10 against in 9 home matches
- Ham-Kam away record: 1W 3D 5L, 10 goals for, 18 against in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: Rosenborg won 3, Ham-Kam won 2; Rosenborg won last meeting 2-0 at home
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRosenborgEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's solid home form and Ham-Kam's struggles away make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Rosenborg home unbeaten in 7 of 9 matches (5W 2D)
- Ham-Kam away win rate only 11% (1 win in 9)
- H2H: Ham-Kam have not won at Rosenborg in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRosenborg or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's strong first-half performances at home give them an edge, but Ham-Kam's occasional resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 53% of all matches
- Ham-Kam trailed at half-time in 53% of all matches
- Rosenborg home first-half record: 5W 2D 2L
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRosenborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's ability to control matches from the first half at home supports HT/FT, but the probability is modest given Ham-Kam's occasional fightbacks.
- Rosenborg led at half-time and won in 4 of 9 home matches
- Ham-Kam trailed at half-time and lost in 4 of 9 away matches
- H2H: Rosenborg won last home meeting 2-0 after leading at half-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonRosenborg/RosenborgEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and Rosenborg's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- Rosenborg home matches average 3.1 total goals (18 for, 10 against in 9)
- Ham-Kam away matches average 3.1 total goals (10 for, 18 against in 9)
- Rosenborg last 5 home matches: 4 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, especially in their respective home/away splits.
- Rosenborg home: scored in 8 of 9, conceded in 6 of 9
- Ham-Kam away: scored in 6 of 9, conceded in 8 of 9
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's tendency to start fast at home could produce first-half goals, but Ham-Kam's low away first-half scoring tempers confidence.
- Rosenborg average 1.0 first-half goals at home (9 in 9 matches)
- Ham-Kam average 0.5 first-half goals away (4.5 in 9 matches)
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 53% of all matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more open after the break, and Ham-Kam's away defensive record suggests second-half goals.
- Rosenborg home second-half goals: 9 in 9 matches (1.0 per match)
- Ham-Kam away second-half goals conceded: 10 in 9 matches (1.1 per match)
- Combined average second-half goals in this matchup: 2.1
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's attacking style at home generates corners, and Ham-Kam's defensive posture away could add to the total.
- Rosenborg home average corners: 6.2 per match
- Ham-Kam away average corners: 3.8 per match
- Combined average corners in Rosenborg home matches: 10.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's home corner production is solid, and Ham-Kam's away matches often see opponents earn corners.
- Rosenborg home average corners: 6.2 per match
- Rosenborg had 6+ corners in 5 of 9 home matches
- Ham-Kam away concede average corners: 5.8 per match
BetBugs · Home CornerswonRosenborg over 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot metrics suggest a moderate total, but the line is set near the combined average, making it a coin flip.
- Rosenborg home average shots on target: 5.6 per match
- Ham-Kam away average shots on target conceded: 5.2 per match
- Combined average shots on target in Rosenborg home matches: 10.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The expected card count is close to the line, with both teams showing moderate discipline numbers.
- Rosenborg home average yellow cards: 2.0 per match
- Ham-Kam away average yellow cards: 1.3 per match
- Combined average cards in Rosenborg home matches: 3.3
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 73.5% far exceeds our 55% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers no value.

Prediction history

Rosenborg has been highly reliable when projected to win

Rosenborg has fulfilled 3 of 4 win projections, a 75% success rate. The expected number of fulfilled predictions was 2, so they have outperformed their average estimated probability. Their only miss came at home against Aalesund, while all three home wins were by multiple goals.

Recent evidence for Rosenborg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien