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Predictions graded

Rosenborg5Tromso3

HT 4–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 20–15On targetOn target 10–9CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Rosenborg are overpriced at 1.70 given their injury crisis, so avoid the home win and double chance.

The standout value is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25, where our 55% estimate beats the 44.4% implied probability.

Context

Tromso are third in Eliteserien and competing in the Europa Conference League.
They played Brighton on 20 and 27 August, losing the away leg 4-0 after a 0-0 home draw. That European tie added two midweek matches and travel to England, which can affect freshness for this league game. Rosenborg had no such extra fixtures in the same period.
- Tromso drew 0-0 at home to Brighton on 2026-08-20 in the Europa Conference League.
- Tromso lost 4-0 away to Brighton on 2026-08-27 in the Europa Conference League.
Rosenborg head coach Freyr Alexandersson, appointed on 17 June 2026, has stated that high pressing, regains and attacking combinations are central to his approach.
Rosenborg's pressing and recovery structure can shape territorial control and transition chances against Tromsø. The club's July review described the team as aggressive with and without the ball under Alexandersson, so the home side may look to force turnovers high up the pitch.
- Rosenborg appointed Freyr Alexandersson as head coach on 17 June 2026.
- Before his first match, Alexandersson identified high pressing, regains and attacking combinations as central parts of the intended approach.
- Rosenborg’s official July review described the team as aggressive with and without the ball under Alexandersson.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 23:47 · Europe/BucharestRosenborg appoints Alexandersson as head coachwww.rbk.no · 17 Jun 2026Alexandersson outlines the intended playing stylewww.rbk.no · 9 Jul 2026Rosenborg’s July awards and tactical rationalewww.rbk.no · 27 Aug 2026
Rosenborg sit sixth in Eliteserien and have a strong home record this season.
Midfielders J. Bakke and I. Fossum, attackers D. Islamovic and J. Reitan-Sunde, and defender J. Svensson are all listed as missing. That removes several options across the pitch, though the exact starting lineup is not known. Tromso also have injuries, but their list is shorter.
- Rosenborg list J. Bakke (midfielder), I. Fossum (midfielder), D. Islamovic (attacker), J. Reitan-Sunde (attacker), and J. Svensson (defender) as missing.
- Tromso list D. Braut (attacker) and M. Tonnessen (defender) as missing, with C. Oyvann and V. Skjaervik questionable.
Rosenborg are sixth and Tromso third in Eliteserien.
Rosenborg's home record is 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses with 22 goals scored and 10 conceded. Tromso's away record is 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses with 16 goals scored and 15 conceded. Both teams perform better at home, but Rosenborg's home advantage is more pronounced.
- Rosenborg home record: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 10 matches.
- Tromso away record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Rosenborg

1.70fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Despite a strong home record, the market price overestimates Rosenborg's chances given their injury crisis and Tromso's competitive away form.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rosenborg or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Rosenborg avoiding defeat, but the injury crisis and Tromso's away resilience make the true probability lower than implied.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages and home/away splits suggest an open game, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly find the net and concede, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's strong home record and the H2H pattern of home dominance give them the edge, though Tromso's higher league position tempers confidence.
- Rosenborg home record: 6W 2D 2L, 22 goals scored, 10 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Tromso away record: 4W 2D 3L, 16 goals scored, 15 conceded in 9 away matches.
- H2H last 5: home team won all 5 meetings; Rosenborg won 4-1 at home vs Tromso in July 2025.
- Rosenborg recent home form: won 4 of last 5 home league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRosenborgEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's solid home form and Tromso's inconsistent away results make the home side avoiding defeat highly likely.
- Rosenborg home record: 6W 2D 2L, 22 goals scored, 10 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Tromso away record: 4W 2D 3L, 16 goals scored, 15 conceded in 9 away matches.
- H2H last 5: home team won all 5 meetings; Rosenborg won 4-1 at home vs Tromso in July 2025.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRosenborg or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's tendency to lead at half-time gives them a slight edge, but the probability remains modest.
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Tromso trailed at half-time in 20% of recent matches.
- Rosenborg average 1.1 first-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRosenborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's ability to lead at half-time and home advantage support the HT/FT double, but it remains a low-probability outcome.
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 60% of recent matches and won 8 of 19 overall.
- Tromso trailed at half-time in 20% of recent matches and lost 4 of 19 overall.
- H2H: Rosenborg won 4-1 at home vs Tromso in July 2025.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonRosenborg/RosenborgEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and their home/away splits suggest an open game, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Rosenborg average 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in last 15.
- Tromso average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match in last 15.
- Rosenborg home matches average 3.2 total goals (22 scored + 10 conceded in 10).
- Tromso away matches average 3.4 total goals (16 scored + 15 conceded in 9).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Rosenborg scored in 8 of 10 home matches; conceded in 6 of 10.
- Tromso scored in 7 of 9 away matches; conceded in 7 of 9.
- Rosenborg average 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in last 15.
- Tromso average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match in last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the line of 1.5 is not strongly supported by the averages.
- Rosenborg average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15.
- Tromso average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15.
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 60% of recent matches; Tromso led in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to produce more goals for both teams, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Rosenborg average 1.5 second-half goals (2.6 total - 1.1 first half).
- Tromso average 1.2 second-half goals (2.2 total - 1.0 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.7 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages hover around the 9.5 line, making this a coin-flip prediction.
- Rosenborg average 5.8 corners per match; Tromso average 4.2 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 10.0 per match.
- Rosenborg home matches average 6.0 corners; Tromso away matches average 4.2 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is slightly above the line, but variance makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Rosenborg average 5.8 shots on target per match; Tromso average 4.8 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 10.6 per match.
- Rosenborg home matches average 6.0 shots on target; Tromso away matches average 4.8 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is below the line, but the high foul counts suggest potential for more cards.
- Rosenborg average 1.7 yellow cards per match; Tromso average 1.2 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.9 per match.
- Rosenborg home matches average 1.8 yellow cards; Tromso away matches average 1.3 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58.8% leaves no cushion vs our 48% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and ignores injury risk.

Prediction history

Rosenborg has been highly reliable when projected to win

Rosenborg has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent match-winner predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 50%, with an expected 2 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. All three fulfilled predictions came at home, where they are 3 for 3, while the only miss was a home loss to Aalesund.

Recent evidence for Rosenborg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien