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KristiansundRosenborg

Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00

12Probabilities0Priced5Edges75%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 20:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Rosenborg are favored on quality and H2H form, but their poor away record and defensive rotation make the 1.50 price poor value.

The best edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05, where the model sees a 55% chance versus the market's 48.8% implied probability.

Context

Rosenborg lose Johan Bakke for the season and both clubs face short midweek cup turnaround, with Rosenborg rotating all five defensive positions.

Kristiansund are 14th in the Eliteserien with 19 points from 20 matches, exactly on the relegation line.
They have a better home record than away, with four wins and two draws in nine home games. A win here would move them clear of the bottom three, but they face a Rosenborg side that has struggled on the road this season.
- Kristiansund are 14th with 19 points, level with the relegation line.
- Their home record is 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9 matches.
Rosenborg are 6th with 30 points, but their away record is poor.
They have won only two of nine away games, losing six. That away weakness may allow Kristiansund to compete, even though Rosenborg have a stronger overall squad and recent form.
- Rosenborg away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 9 matches.
- They have scored 9 goals and conceded 16 away from home.
The most recent meeting between these teams was on 12 July 2026.
Rosenborg won that match 3-0 at home. In the last five meetings, Rosenborg have won three, Kristiansund one, and one was drawn. That recent head-to-head edge may give Rosenborg confidence, but Kristiansund's home advantage could change the dynamic.
- 12 July 2026: Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund (Eliteserien).
- Last five H2H: Rosenborg 3 wins, Kristiansund 1 win, 1 draw.
Rosenborg midfielder Johan Bakke has been out since early August and has now undergone surgery.
His confirmed absence removes a midfield option from Rosenborg's available matchday group for this fixture. The club says he will not return until the 2027 pre-season, so this is a season-ending loss rather than a short-term issue.
- Rosenborg confirmed that Bakke had been out of matches and training since early August.
- The club confirmed surgery and said he will be unavailable for the remainder of the 2026 season.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:56 · Europe/BucharestRosenborg: Bakke operated after injurywww.rbk.no · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Rosenborg

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Rosenborg's superior overall quality and recent H2H dominance are offset by a terrible away record, making the 1.50 price too short relative to our 55% estimate.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Rosenborg

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

Even with a HIGH confidence 75% estimate, the 1.18 price implies 85%, leaving no value and actually a negative edge.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' combined goal averages and recent H2H meetings frequently exceed 2.5 goals, driven by Rosenborg's attacking output and Kristiansund's defensive weaknesses.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Kristiansund's home scoring ability and Rosenborg's consistent attacking threat make both teams scoring likely, though Rosenborg's occasional defensive solidity tempers confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's superior overall quality and recent H2H dominance outweigh their poor away record, while Kristiansund's relegation struggle and defensive frailty make an away win likely.
- Rosenborg away record: 2W-1D-6L, 9 goals for, 16 against in 9 away matches.
- Kristiansund home record: 4W-2D-3L, 12 goals for, 11 against in 9 home matches.
- H2H last 5: Rosenborg won 3, Kristiansund won 1, draw 1; Rosenborg won the most recent meeting 3-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerRosenborgEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's overall quality and H2H edge make them favorites, but Kristiansund's home resilience and Rosenborg's away struggles suggest a draw is a realistic outcome.
- Rosenborg away record: 2W-1D-6L, 9 goals for, 16 against in 9 away matches.
- Kristiansund home record: 4W-2D-3L, 12 goals for, 11 against in 9 home matches.
- H2H last 5: Rosenborg won 3, Kristiansund won 1, draw 1.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or RosenborgEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's superior first-half performance metrics give them an edge, but the low probability reflects the inherent uncertainty of half-time results.
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 60% of last 15 matches; Kristiansund led in 33%.
- Rosenborg average first-half goals: 1.2 for, 0.5 against; Kristiansund: 0.5 for, 0.9 against.
- H2H last 5: Rosenborg led at half-time in 2 meetings, Kristiansund in 1, draw in 2.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerRosenborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's stronger second-half scoring and overall quality suggest they are more likely to win the second half, but the margin is not overwhelming.
- Rosenborg average second-half goals: 1.6 for, 1.1 against; Kristiansund: 0.8 for, 1.0 against.
- Rosenborg won the second half in 7 of last 15 matches; Kristiansund won in 4.
- H2H last 5: Rosenborg won second half in 2 meetings, Kristiansund in 1, draw in 2.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerRosenborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's tendency to lead at half-time and convert leads into wins makes HT/FT Rosenborg/Rosenborg a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Rosenborg led at half-time in 60% of last 15 matches and won 60% of those matches.
- Kristiansund trailed at half-time in 47% of last 15 matches and lost 73% of those matches.
- H2H last 5: Rosenborg led at half-time and won full-time in 2 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleRosenborg/RosenborgEstimated chance30%

Goals4 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages and recent H2H meetings have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals, driven by Rosenborg's attacking output and Kristiansund's defensive weaknesses.
- Kristiansund average goals per match: 1.3 for, 1.9 against (last 15).
- Rosenborg average goals per match: 2.8 for, 1.6 against (last 15).
- H2H last 5: total goals 3, 5, 2, 4, 3 (average 3.4).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kristiansund's home scoring ability and Rosenborg's consistent attacking threat make both teams scoring likely, though Rosenborg's occasional defensive solidity tempers confidence.
- Kristiansund scored in 11 of last 15 matches; conceded in 12 of last 15.
- Rosenborg scored in 13 of last 15 matches; conceded in 9 of last 15.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's strong first-half scoring and Kristiansund's tendency to concede early suggest a possibility of multiple first-half goals, but the low H2H first-half average keeps confidence low.
- Kristiansund average first-half goals: 0.5 for, 0.9 against (last 15).
- Rosenborg average first-half goals: 1.2 for, 0.5 against (last 15).
- H2H last 5: first-half goals totals 1, 2, 1, 1, 1 (average 1.2).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and recent H2H meetings have consistently produced over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Kristiansund average second-half goals: 0.8 for, 1.0 against (derived from totals).
- Rosenborg average second-half goals: 1.6 for, 1.1 against (derived from totals).
- H2H last 5: second-half goals totals 2, 3, 1, 3, 2 (average 2.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 45%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and recent H2H meetings have averaged around 10 corners, making over 9.5 a borderline call.
- Kristiansund average corners per match: 4.5 for, 6.5 against (last 15).
- Rosenborg average corners per match: 6.1 for, 5.3 against (last 15).
- H2H last 5: total corners 12, 11, 9, 10, 8 (average 10.0).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's high shots on target output and Kristiansund's tendency to allow shots on target suggest a combined total above 8.5 is possible.
- Kristiansund average shots on target: 3.0 for, 5.3 against (last 15).
- Rosenborg average shots on target: 6.3 for, 3.9 against (last 15).
- H2H last 5: total shots on target 15, 8, 7, 9, 6 (average 9.0).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a moderate number of cards, and the combined average is close to the over line, but the low H2H average tempers confidence.
- Kristiansund average yellow cards: 2.2 per match; Rosenborg average: 1.7 per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.9 per match.
- H2H last 5: total yellow cards 3, 4, 5, 2, 3 (average 3.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Rosenborg has been highly reliable when projected to win

Rosenborg has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent win predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 50%, so the expected number of fulfilled predictions was 2, meaning Rosenborg outperformed expectations. The only miss came at home against Aalesund, while the away win at Start Kristiansand was fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Rosenborg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien

Rosenborg4-0