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Predictions graded

Ham-Kam2Kristiansund2

HT 0–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 12–19On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Ham-Kam are the likely winners based on home form and H2H dominance, but the odds offer no value—the home win at 1.80 implies 55.6% versus our 45% estimate.

Avoid Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.22 (implied 82% vs our 65%) and Over 3.5 goals at 2.25; the market has already priced in the obvious angles.

Context

Kristiansund are 14th in the Eliteserien, level on points with the relegation playoff spot.
They have won only once away from home in the league, losing seven of nine matches and conceding 16 goals. This suggests they struggle to control games on the road, which could give Ham-Kam opportunities to exploit space. However, their recent away cup win shows they can still produce results outside the league.
- Away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 7 losses in 9 matches.
- Goals conceded away: 16 in 9 matches.
- Most recent away league match: lost 0-1 to Fredrikstad on 2026-08-16.
Kristiansund sit 14th after 17 matches with 15 points, level with 15th-placed Aalesund and immediately above the relegation play-off spot.
The updated table removes any points buffer, so a defeat at HamKam could leave Kristiansund inside the relegation zone depending on Aalesund's result. That makes securing at least a point especially urgent for the away side. The claim is confirmed by the official table, but it does not by itself predict how that urgency will translate into performance.
- NFF lists Kristiansund 14th after 17 matches with 15 points.
- NFF lists Aalesund 15th after 17 matches with 15 points.
- The competition table identifies relegation play-off and relegation positions immediately below Kristiansund.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:07 · Europe/BucharestNorges Fotballforbund — Eliteserien tablewww.fotball.no · 29 Aug 2026
Ham-Kam are 10th in the table, seven points above the relegation zone.
Their home form is much better than their away form, with five wins from eight matches. They have scored 14 goals at home, showing they can create chances in familiar surroundings. This could be a key factor against a Kristiansund side that struggles on the road.
- Home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 8 matches.
- Goals scored at home: 14 in 8 matches.
- Most recent home league match: drew 1-1 with Aalesund on 2026-08-09.
Kristiansund attacker S. Kilen was substituted through injury at Fredrikstad on 16 August and remained an unused substitute in the cup against Trønder-Lyn on 22 August.
His unresolved fitness leaves Kristiansund's forward selection uncertain for the trip to Hamar. If Kilen is unavailable, the away side may have to adjust their attacking options, but no recovery update has been located, so this remains a watch rather than a confirmed absence.
- Kristiansund reported that S. Kilen was replaced through injury against Fredrikstad on 16 August.
- NFF listed S. Kilen among Kristiansund's substitutes against Trønder-Lyn on 22 August, with no appearance recorded.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:07 · Europe/BucharestKristiansund BK — Surt tap i Fredrikstadwww.kristiansundbk.no · 16 Aug 2026Norges Fotballforbund — Trønder-Lyn 0–5 Kristiansundwww.fotball.no · 22 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ham-Kam

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Ham-Kam's home record and H2H dominance are strong, but the market price already reflects that and leaves no cushion against our 45% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ham-Kam or Draw

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 75% estimate is below the 82% implied by the odds, so despite high confidence in the outcome, the market has already priced it in.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Ham-Kam score in 7 of 8 home matches and Kristiansund concede in 8 of 9 away, but the odds already price in a high probability.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Ham-Kam home games average 3.25 total goals, but the market has already adjusted the line to reflect that.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's strong home form and Kristiansund's poor away record, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Ham-Kam home record: 5W-1D-2L, 14 goals scored, 12 conceded in 8 home matches this season.
- Kristiansund away record: 1W-1D-7L, 5 goals scored, 16 conceded in 9 away matches.
- H2H: Ham-Kam unbeaten in last 5 league meetings (3W-2D), including 2-1 and 1-0 home wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHam-KamEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's home strength and Kristiansund's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Ham-Kam home record: 5W-1D-2L (75% unbeaten at home).
- Kristiansund away record: 1W-1D-7L (78% losing away).
- H2H: Ham-Kam unbeaten in last 5 league meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHam-Kam or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail at halftime, but a draw is a reasonable outcome given their similar first-half struggles.
- Ham-Kam leading at halftime in 33% of matches, trailing in 53%.
- Kristiansund leading at halftime in 27% of matches, trailing in 53%.
- Both teams have a high percentage of trailing at halftime, suggesting a draw is common.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Ham-Kam win is a plausible scenario given Ham-Kam's second-half strength at home.
- Ham-Kam have won 5 home matches, often after a draw or lead at halftime.
- Kristiansund have lost 7 away matches, often after trailing at halftime.
- H2H: Ham-Kam have won the last two home meetings, one after a draw at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Ham-KamEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam's home games tend to be high-scoring, and Kristiansund's leaky away defense increases the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Ham-Kam home matches average 3.25 total goals (14 scored, 12 conceded in 8 games).
- Kristiansund away matches average 2.33 total goals (5 scored, 16 conceded in 9 games).
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Ham-Kam's last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, with Ham-Kam strong at home and Kristiansund vulnerable defensively but capable of scoring.
- Ham-Kam have scored in 7 of 8 home matches this season.
- Kristiansund have conceded in 8 of 9 away matches.
- Kristiansund have scored in 5 of 9 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede first-half goals, making it likely that at least one goal is scored before halftime.
- Ham-Kam average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match overall.
- Kristiansund average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match overall.
- In H2H last meeting (May 2026), first half ended 0-0, but previous meetings had first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the combined average suggests over 1.5 second-half goals is plausible.
- Ham-Kam average 1.0 second-half goals scored per match (total 1.5 minus 0.5 first-half).
- Kristiansund average 0.7 second-half goals scored per match (total 1.1 minus 0.4 first-half).
- Combined second-half scoring average is 1.7 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to 8.5, making over 8.5 a coin-flip but slightly favored due to attacking intent.
- Ham-Kam average 3.6 corners per match, Kristiansund average 4.6 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 8.2 per match.
- In recent H2H matches, corner counts have varied but often exceed 8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kristiansund's high yellow card average and the competitive nature of the match suggest over 3.5 cards is likely.
- Ham-Kam average 1.3 yellow cards per match, Kristiansund average 2.4 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.7 per match.
- Kristiansund have received 5 yellow cards in a match twice in recent games.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 55.6% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Ham-Kam has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

Ham-Kam has fulfilled 6 of 8 over 2.5 goals predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 59.6%, with an expected 4.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. Notably, away matches have been particularly strong, with 5 of 6 predictions fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Ham-Kam8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien