Ham-Kam0Bodo/Glimt2

HT 0–2Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 11–17On targetOn target 1–3CornersCorners 1–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt's title push takes them to Ham-Kam in the middle of a Champions League week, with Dortmund at home on 14 October and little recovery time before this league game.

Glimt are the stronger team and the likelier winners, but Ham-Kam have just won for the first time since July and are better at home than the table suggests. The 1.25 on both teams not to score before half-time is the only quoted price that holds up.

Context

Bodø/Glimt host Borussia Dortmund in Champions League matchday 2 at Aspmyra Stadion on Wednesday 14 October, then travel from northern Norway to Hamar for a Saturday 14:00 kick-off. That leaves about two and a half days between a European night and this league game, so Kjetil Knutsen's selection and travel recovery are a genuine variable. The week is the first of a congested stretch, with a Champions League trip to Napoli on 20 October also ahead. The counterpoint is that Glimt have already won league games immediately after European fixtures this season, beating Rosenborg 4-0 and Sandefjord 3-1, so heavy rotation is possible rather than certain.
- Bodø/Glimt host Borussia Dortmund in Champions League matchday 2 at Aspmyra Stadion on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
- The Eliteserien fixture Ham-Kam v Bodø/Glimt is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026.
- Glimt's previous Champions League match was a 5-0 defeat at Bayern München on 10 September 2026.
- Glimt are due to play Napoli away in the Champions League on 20 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Bodø/Glimt and Viking are level on points at the top of Eliteserien with identical win, draw, loss and goal records, leaving the title race finely balanced with eight rounds left. Dropped points in Hamar would hand Viking the initiative, and one Norwegian analytics account puts Glimt's title probability at 57% while noting Viking play five of their remaining eight games at home. The fixture also sits between two Champions League matches, so Glimt must weigh the league against European commitments. This is a stakes story rather than a form or availability change: Glimt remain clear favourites against a side fighting relegation.
- After 22 of 30 rounds, Viking and Bodø/Glimt are level on points with identical win, draw, loss and goal records in Eliteserien.
- Viking are the current Eliteserien leaders, level with Bodø/Glimt.
- One Norwegian analytics account rates Glimt's title chances at 57% and notes Viking have five of their remaining eight games at home.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Ham-Kam's 4-2 win at bottom club Start on 11 October was their first Eliteserien victory since 31 July, ending a run of six league games without a win. Around 150 supporters made the trip to Kristiansand and the club publicly thanked them, a morale boost before hosting the league leaders. The result eases Ham-Kam's position near the bottom but does not close the gap in quality against Glimt, the division's highest scorers. It is a confidence and momentum story, with no confirmed effect on selection or tactics for this fixture.
- Ham-Kam beat Start 4-2 in Kristiansand on 11 October 2026.
- It was Ham-Kam's first Eliteserien win since 31 July 2026.
- The club said the three away points were hard-earned and thanked the travelling supporters.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Mohamed Ofkir scored twice in Ham-Kam's 4-2 win at Start on 11 October, including a 92nd-minute fourth, with both goals created by Aksel Baran Potur. The brace makes Ofkir Ham-Kam's most recent match-winner, and against a possession-heavy Glimt side his threat on the break is their likeliest route to goal. He also scored at Tromsø in September, suggesting a steady role in the attack. A single strong game is a thin basis for expecting a repeat, and Glimt have conceded fewer league goals than any other Eliteserien team this season.
- Mohamed Ofkir scored twice in Ham-Kam's 4-2 league win at Start on 11 October 2026.
- Both goals were assisted by Aksel Baran Potur, in the 74th and 90+2nd minutes.
- Ofkir also scored in Ham-Kam's 3-2 defeat at Tromsø on 20 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.13fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88.5%

−16.5ppshort

Both sides are involved in first halves that usually produce at least one goal.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bodo/Glimt

1.20fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 83.3%

−17.3ppshort

Glimt are clearly the stronger side on season-long evidence and have controlled this fixture repeatedly.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bodo/Glimt

1.48fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 67.6%

−20.6ppshort

Glimt's strong first-half scoring and Ham-Kam's quiet opening periods make an away lead at the break the most likely single outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Glimt are clearly the stronger side on season-long evidence and have controlled this fixture repeatedly.
- Glimt are 2nd with 53 points from 22 (17W 2D 3L, 56 goals for, 20 against).
- Their away record is 7W 2D 2L with 22 scored and 13 conceded.
- They have won 12 of their last 15 competitive matches and four of the last five league meetings with Ham-Kam.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.48
The read
Glimt's strong first-half scoring and Ham-Kam's quiet opening periods make an away lead at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals and 0.4 first-half goals against.
- Ham-Kam concede 0.71 first-half goals per match and 0.75 in home splits.
- Glimt led at half-time in several of the recent head-to-heads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Glimt carry the stronger second-half scoring record while Ham-Kam concede heavily after the break.
- Glimt's second halves average 1.6 scored and 0.93 conceded.
- Glimt's away split second halves average 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
- Ham-Kam concede 2.25 second-half goals per home-split game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBodo/GlimtEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A draw needs Glimt to be blunted by the midweek European game while Ham-Kam defend well, which has only occasionally happened this season. Glimt are clearly the stronger side on season-long evidence and have controlled this fixture repeatedly.
- Ham-Kam have drawn 5 of 22 league games and 2 of their last 4 home fixtures.
- Glimt have drawn only 2 of 22 and 2 of 11 away games.
- Glimt are 2nd with 53 points from 22 (17W 2D 3L, 56 goals for, 20 against).
- Their away record is 7W 2D 2L with 22 scored and 13 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A level first half is likely because Ham-Kam rarely score early and Glimt do not always break teams down immediately. Glimt's strong first-half scoring and Ham-Kam's quiet opening periods make an away lead at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Ham-Kam have scored no first-half goals in their four home-split games.
- Glimt held a first-half clean sheet in 10 of 15 competitive matches.
- Glimt average 1.4 first-half goals and 0.4 first-half goals against.
- Ham-Kam concede 0.71 first-half goals per match and 0.75 in home splits.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance88%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both sides are involved in high-scoring games, and the fixture history has produced clear margins.
- Glimt's competitive matches average 3.0 scored and 1.33 conceded.
- Ham-Kam's competitive matches average 1.64 scored and 2.14 conceded.
- Four of Glimt's last six and four of Ham-Kam's last six featured at least three goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Ham-Kam have scored in most matches, while Glimt have conceded in two-thirds of theirs, so both finding the net is plausible.
- Ham-Kam scored in 10 of 14 tracked matches; both teams scored in 7.
- Glimt conceded in 10 of 15; both teams scored in 9.
- Ham-Kam's home split shows both teams scoring in all four games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Glimt score at a high rate home and away and face a defence that concedes regularly.
- Glimt average 3.0 goals per competitive match and 2.0 per away league match.
- Their away record shows 22 goals in 11 league games.
- Ham-Kam concede 2.14 per tracked match and 1.9 per home league game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBodo/Glimt over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ham-Kam score often enough at home that a Glimt clean sheet is the less likely outcome.
- Ham-Kam scored in 10 of 14 tracked matches.
- Ham-Kam found the net in all four of their home-split games.
- Glimt kept only two clean sheets in nine away splits.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHam-Kam to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Both sides are involved in first halves that usually produce at least one goal.
- Ham-Kam's first-half totals average 0.5 scored and 0.71 conceded.
- Glimt's first-half totals average 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Both teams scored first-half goals in the most recent Glimt cup match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Ham-Kam's minimal first-half output makes both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- Ham-Kam average 0.5 first-half goals and none in their home split.
- Glimt average 0.4 first-half goals against.
- Glimt's 5-0 loss at Bayern was the only game where they conceded multiple first-half goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly after the break, pointing to at least two second-half goals.
- Ham-Kam's second halves average 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
- Glimt's second halves average 1.6 scored and 0.93 conceded.
- Ham-Kam's home split second halves average 3.5 goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals combine to roughly nine per game, below the 10.5 line.
- Ham-Kam average 3.92 corners against 5.33 conceded.
- Glimt average 6.23 corners against 3.31 conceded, 4.29 away.
- Glimt's away matches average 9.14 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Total shot volume sits right on the line, with Glimt's high output offsetting Ham-Kam's low volume.
- Ham-Kam average 10 shots and concede 17.75.
- Glimt average 16.46 shots and concede 10.54.
- Combined per-match shot totals sit near 27.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 26.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card rates sit just above the line, with red-card risk in both squads adding to the total.
- Ham-Kam average 1.5 yellows and 0.25 reds per match.
- Glimt average 0.69 yellows and 0.25 reds per match.
- Glimt's away split shows 1.0 yellow and 2.14 opponent yellows per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt: 8/9 recent winner projections matched

8 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Bodo/Glimt matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien