Vila Nova2Gremio Novorizontino SP2

HT 0–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 11–11On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest

First place in Série B is on the line in Goiânia, with Vila Nova a point clear of Novorizontino.

Vila Nova's home record, 12 wins from 16, makes them the likelier winner, though Novorizontino score freely and won June's meeting. Of the quoted prices, 2.75 for Vila Nova, 1.50 for Vila Nova or a draw and 1.85 for both teams not to score carry some merit; Under 2.5 at 1.67 and the first-half lines are too short.

Context

These are the two best teams in Série B and only a single point separates them, so Sunday's result directly decides who leads the division as the run-in begins. Vila Nova has won 12 of 16 at home, while Novorizontino has just won three in a row, giving each side a route to three points rather than a reason to play safe. A draw would suit Juventude, who began the round level with Novorizontino, so an open game is plausible. First place also carries one of the two automatic promotion places, which is why the fixture shapes approach rather than serving as routine table context.
- Vila Nova leads Série B with 61 points, one more than Novorizontino on 60.
- Juventude started the round level with Novorizontino on 60 points.
- The match is the first of the final five rounds of the 2026 Série B first phase.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Robson shares the Série B scoring lead on 16 goals, and his absence from the 5-1 win over Ponte Preta on 12 October is the clearest sign of an injury that could change Novorizontino's attack for this trip. Back-up striker Carlão scored in his place and the goals were shared among five players, so the team has shown it can cope without its leading scorer. Whether Robson returns at the Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga is unresolved, and his availability would change how much attention Vila Nova must devote to the centre of the box.
- Robson has 16 Série B goals, level with CRB's Mikael at the top of the scoring chart.
- Robson was absent for Novorizontino's 5-1 home win over Ponte Preta on 12 October.
- Carlão, who took his place, scored one of the five goals.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
A sell-out at the Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga turns a top-of-the-table fixture into a full house, and the club sold 3,000 tickets within half an hour of sales opening on 13 October. Vila Nova's home form, 12 wins in 16, is the strongest in the division, so the crowd reinforces an existing edge. The atmosphere can cut both ways for a squad chasing a first Série A place in 41 years, but the supporters' presence is a concrete condition of this match rather than a projection.
- 3,000 tickets were sold within 30 minutes of sales opening on 13 October.
- Tickets for Vila Nova x Novorizontino sold out, with the stadium set for a full house.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
With Gabriel Bahia nursing a foot injury, Enderson Moreira used the second half against Ponte Preta to pair Carlinhos and Eduardo Brock in central defence, and the two are in line to start at Vila Nova. The reshuffle matters because Novorizontino concede only 0.7 goals per game, and a fresh partnership is being asked to hold the division's best home attack. The Ponte Preta match was already decided when the pair played together, so the experiment gives limited evidence of how the new-look defence handles sustained pressure.
- Gabriel Bahia missed the Ponte Preta match with a foot injury.
- Carlinhos and Eduardo Brock were paired in central defence during the second half and are in line to start at Vila Nova.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75
The read
Vila Nova's dominant home record and strong home defence make them the likeliest winner of a tight top-two match.
- Vila Nova home league record: 12 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 16 games, 31 goals for and 11 against
- Tracked home window: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 1.88 scored and 0.25 conceded per game
- Novorizontino away league record: 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 16 games, 28 for and 13 against
- Novorizontino won the most recent meeting 2-1 at home in June 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVila NovaEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides defend well before the break, so a level first half is common.
- Vila Nova tracked home first halves: 0.125 conceded per game
- Novorizontino tracked away first halves: 0.33 conceded per game
- Vila Nova's last six tracked first halves: 2-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent second halves for both teams have often ended level.
- Vila Nova's last six tracked second halves produced one goal in total
- Vila Nova tracked home second halves: 0.125 conceded per game
- Novorizontino tracked away second halves: 0.5 conceded per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Vila Nova's dominant home record and strong home defence make them the likeliest winner of a tight top-two match. Two of the division's best defences and a one-point gap make a level game a realistic outcome.
- Vila Nova home league record: 12 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 16 games, 31 goals for and 11 against
- Tracked home window: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 1.88 scored and 0.25 conceded per game
- One point separates the teams: Vila Nova 61, Novorizontino 60
- Vila Nova have drawn 3 of 16 home league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVila Nova or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova have started games well at home and often hold the lead by the break. Both sides defend well before the break, so a level first half is common.
- Vila Nova tracked home first halves: 1.0 scored and 0.125 conceded per game
- Vila Nova scored a first-half goal in 5 of their last 6 tracked games
- Vila Nova tracked home first halves: 0.125 conceded per game
- Novorizontino tracked away first halves: 0.33 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostVila Nova or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Two of the strongest defences in the division meet, pointing to a controlled game.
- Vila Nova tracked home: 6 clean sheets in 8 games, 0.25 conceded per game
- Vila Nova overall tracked: 1.4 scored and 0.67 conceded per game
- Novorizontino tracked away: 0.83 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Vila Nova's home defence is the standout figure in this sample.
- Vila Nova tracked home: 6 clean sheets in 8 games
- Vila Nova overall tracked: both teams scored in only 2 of 15
- Novorizontino failed to score in 1 of 6 tracked away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams regularly find early goals, so a first-half goal is likely.
- Vila Nova tracked home first halves: 1.0 scored plus 0.125 conceded per game
- Novorizontino tracked away first halves: 1.33 scored plus 0.33 conceded per game
- Vila Nova scored in the first half of 5 of their last 6 tracked games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both defences start well, making a shared first half unlikely.
- Vila Nova tracked home first halves: 0.125 conceded per game
- Novorizontino tracked away first halves: 0.33 conceded per game
- Vila Nova scored in the first half of 5 of their last 6 tracked games
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves for both teams have tended to stay low-scoring.
- Vila Nova tracked home second halves: 0.125 conceded per game
- Vila Nova's last six tracked second halves produced one goal in total
- Novorizontino tracked away second halves: 0.5 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance80%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tracked corner totals for both teams sit below the line.
- Vila Nova tracked home total corners: 11.75 per game
- Novorizontino tracked away total corners: 11.83 per game
- Vila Nova overall tracked total corners: 11.4 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tracked shot totals for both teams sit below the line.
- Vila Nova tracked home total shots: 26.6 per game
- Novorizontino tracked away total shots: 26.2 per game
- Vila Nova overall tracked total shots: 25.2 per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 30.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked shots-on-target totals stay below the line.
- Vila Nova tracked home total shots on target: 9.13 per game
- Novorizontino tracked away total shots on target: 8.0 per game
- Vila Nova overall tracked total shots on target: 8.6 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tracked card totals for both teams sit clearly above the line.
- Vila Nova tracked home total cards: 4.88 per game
- Novorizontino tracked away total cards: 4.83 per game
- Novorizontino's recent 5-1 win produced three red cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Prediction history

Vila Nova: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Vila Nova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Vila Nova5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B