Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Vila Nova1Botafogo SP0

HT 1–0Mon 8 Jun 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 17–7On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 9–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Jun 2026, 17:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Vila Nova’s promotion push and strong home form make them favorites against a winless Botafogo SP, but three defensive suspensions add risk.

The match is likely to be low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals and both teams not scoring the most probable outcomes. The best value may be on Vila Nova to win at 1.95, though the edge is slim.

Context

Centre-backs Pedro Romano and Caio Marcelo, plus defensive midfielder Willian Maranhao, are all suspended.
- Centre-back Anderson Jesus returns from suspension, but the backline will be unfamiliar.
- Botafogo SP have struggled to score away, but a disrupted defence could give them rare chances.
Botafogo SP's last league win was on 1 April; since then they have drawn four and lost five.
- After a 0-0 draw at Ponte Preta, coach Claudio Tencati said the situation and man advantage made his players anxious.
- Midfielder Leandro Maciel is suspended, forcing a third midfield change in recent weeks.
Vila Nova have won three and drawn two of their five home league games this season.
- A win would take them to 25 points, one ahead of current leaders Sport Recife, who play two days later.
- The club launched a ticket campaign expecting a full house, with discounts and multiple sales points.
The last five Serie B meetings: 2-0, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1. Only one game had over 2.5 goals.
- In three of those five matches, one team failed to score.
- Vila Nova won both home games in this period, 2-0 and 3-1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vila Nova or Draw

1.22fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Vila Nova are unbeaten at home this season and Botafogo SP are winless in nine league games, making a home win or draw structurally sound.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have extremely low first-half scoring rates, especially Botafogo SP away (1 goal in 6 games), and H2H history shows 4 of last 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

The H2H pattern of tight, low-scoring affairs combined with Botafogo SP's away scoring struggles and Vila Nova's occasional home unders supports a low total.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's promotion-chasing motivation, strong home form, and Botafogo SP's poor away record and winless run give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by H2H home dominance.
- Vila Nova are 2nd with 22 pts, unbeaten at home (W3 D2), and can go top with a win.
- Botafogo SP are 16th with 10 pts, winless in 9 league games (D4 L5), and have 1 away win all season.
- Vila Nova average 1.8 goals scored at home; Botafogo SP average 0.5 goals scored away.
- H2H last 5: home team won 4 of 5, with Vila Nova winning both home meetings 2-0 and 3-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVila NovaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's home invincibility and Botafogo SP's prolonged winless streak make a home win or draw highly probable, driven by the structural home/away edge and contrasting form.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in 5 home league games this season (W3 D2).
- Botafogo SP have lost 3 of 6 away games, with only 1 win.
- Botafogo SP have failed to win any of their last 9 league matches.
- Vila Nova have lost only 1 of 11 league games overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVila Nova or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides rarely lead at the break, especially Botafogo SP on the road, and H2H trends point to a level first half.
- Vila Nova led at half-time in only 27% of matches; Botafogo SP in 27%.
- Vila Nova home: led at HT in 2 of 5 games.
- Botafogo SP away: led at HT in 0 of 6 games.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's superior fitness and home pressure could tilt the second half, especially as Botafogo SP fade late in away games.
- Vila Nova have a positive second-half goal difference at home (+3 in 5 games).
- Botafogo SP have a negative second-half goal difference away (-2 in 6 games).
- Vila Nova often score late: 4 of 9 home goals came after 60th minute.
- Botafogo SP conceded 4 of 5 away goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableVila NovaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Vila Nova pulling away is a plausible scenario given Botafogo SP's second-half away struggles and Vila Nova's home resilience.
- Vila Nova drew at HT in 3 of 5 home games, winning 2 of those in the second half.
- Botafogo SP drew at HT in 4 of 6 away games, losing 3 of those overall.
- H2H: 2 of last 5 saw draw at HT and home win at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Vila NovaEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of tight, low-scoring affairs combined with Botafogo SP's away scoring struggles and Vila Nova's occasional home unders supports a low total.
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
- Botafogo SP away games average 1.33 total goals (8 goals in 6 games).
- Vila Nova home games average 2.8 total goals, but 3 of 5 had under 2.5.
- Botafogo SP have scored only 3 goals in 6 away games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP's blunt away attack and Vila Nova's decent home defensive record, along with H2H clean sheet trends, suggest at least one side will blank.
- Botafogo SP failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- Vila Nova kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 home games.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings saw one team fail to score.
- Botafogo SP average 0.5 goals scored away; Vila Nova concede 1.0 at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a high-probability event, Vila Nova's home defensive solidity and Botafogo SP's away scoring woes give a reasonable chance of a home clean sheet.
- Vila Nova kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home games this season.
- Botafogo SP failed to score in 3 of 6 away games.
- Botafogo SP average 0.5 goals scored away.
- H2H: Vila Nova kept a clean sheet in their last home meeting vs Botafogo SP (2-0).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBotafogo SP not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's home scoring rate and Botafogo SP's vulnerability against top-half attacks make it likely the hosts net at least twice.
- Vila Nova scored 2+ goals in 3 of 5 home league games.
- Vila Nova average 1.8 goals scored at home.
- Botafogo SP concede 0.83 goals per away game, but face a strong home attack.
- Vila Nova scored 2+ in both home H2H wins vs Botafogo SP.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostVila Nova over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP's away scoring drought is stark, and Vila Nova's home defense is capable of shutting them out, making an away blank likely.
- Botafogo SP failed to score in 3 of 6 away games.
- Botafogo SP average 0.5 goals scored away.
- Vila Nova kept 2 home clean sheets this season.
- Botafogo SP scored only 3 away goals all season.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBotafogo SP under 0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, especially Botafogo SP away, and H2H history shows tight opening periods, making a quiet first half very probable.
- Vila Nova average 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded at home/overall.
- Botafogo SP average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.3 conceded overall.
- Botafogo SP away: only 1 first-half goal scored in 6 games.
- H2H: 4 of last 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a high total, though lack of H2H corner data and variance in recent matches limit confidence.
- Vila Nova average 5.1 corners per game; Botafogo SP average 6.6.
- Vila Nova home corners: 5.6 average; Botafogo SP away corners: 7.2 average.
- Combined average in their games: 11.7 corners.
- H2H: corner data unavailable, but both teams generate above-average corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high disciplinary counts, and a tense, stakes-filled match could push the total over the line.
- Vila Nova average 3.8 yellow cards per game; Botafogo SP average 3.1.
- Combined average: 6.9 cards per game.
- Vila Nova home: 4.0 yellows per game; Botafogo SP away: 3.2 yellows per game.
- Recent H2H: 5 yellows in last meeting, 4 in previous.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-0Botafogo SPvVila NovaAug 25, 2025SER

W2-0Vila NovavBotafogo SPApr 20, 2025SER

D1-1Vila NovavBotafogo SPSep 28, 2024SER

L1-0Botafogo SPvVila NovaJun 16, 2024SER

W3-1Vila NovavBotafogo SPOct 12, 2023SER

Botafogo SP: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Vila Nova Promotion	11	6	4	1	17-11	22	WWWLD
16	Botafogo SP	11	2	4	5	11-11	10	DLLLD

12pt gap between teamsVila Nova leads the league

Recent Form

Vila Nova

W1-0LondrinaMay 31SER

W2-1America MineiroMay 24SER

W2-0AvaiMay 17SER

L0-1GoiasMay 9SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 4SER

W2-1AraguaínaApr 29COP

D3-3CearaApr 26SER

W2-1Operario-PRApr 18SER

D0-0Capital BrasiliaApr 16COP

W1-0Ponte PretaApr 11SER

D2-2Primavera MGApr 8COP

W2-1Atletico GoianienseApr 4SER

D1-1Sport RecifeApr 1SER

W6-0Operario FerroviarioMar 28COP

L0-1Rio Branco ESMar 24COP

Botafogo SP

D0-0Ponte PretaJun 1SER

L1-2Athletic ClubMay 25SER

L0-1GoiasMay 16SER

L0-1NovorizontinoMay 10SER

D1-1Nautico RecifeMay 2SER

D1-1CuiabaApr 23SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseApr 19SER

L0-1CriciumaApr 10SER

L1-2São BernardoApr 5SER

W2-1America MineiroApr 1SER

W4-0Fortaleza ECMar 21SER

L0-1CapivarianoFeb 15PAU

W2-0Guarani CampinasFeb 7PAU

W1-0PalmeirasFeb 1PAU

L0-2NovorizontinoJan 25PAU

Squad & Injuries

Vila Nova

38 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Botafogo SP

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Vila Nova

No

Vila Nova or Draw

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Vila Nova

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Vila Nova

Botafogo SP

Squad & Injuries

Vila Nova

Botafogo SP