Gremio Novorizontino SP5Ponte Preta1

HT 3–1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 19:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Third-placed Novorizontino can draw level with second-placed Juventude by beating already-relegated Ponte Preta, the bottom side with 13 points from 32 games.

Novorizontino are likely to win, but the 1.06 home price does not justify support. The prices with a case are under 2.5 goals at 3.5, the first half level at 4.0, no first-half goal at 4.75, and both teams not to score at 1.45.

Context

Novorizontino sit third on 57 points with the most productive attack in Série B, and a win over Ponte Preta would pull them level with second-placed Juventude. The club has never reached Série A and is run by the Biasi family since becoming a SAF in 2023, so the remaining home fixtures carry unusual weight. The top two go up directly and the next four contest a playoff, which sharpens the value of beating the bottom side. Because Juventude have already played, this is the hosts' only route to keep pace, so they cannot treat a match against the last-placed team as routine.
- Novorizontino are third on 57 points with the most productive attack in Série B (54 goals).
- A home win would draw them level with second-placed Juventude on 60 points.
- The club has never played in Série A and has been controlled and financed by the Biasi family since becoming a SAF in 2023.
- The top two go up directly, with the next four places decided in a playoff.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:55 · Europe/Bucharest
The 2-0 defeat at Cuiabá on 3 October confirmed Ponte Preta's relegation with seven rounds still to play, a second demotion in 2026 after the Paulistão and the earliest in the Série B points era. They arrive bottom on 13 points, having lost 15 of 16 away games, while reports describe unpaid wages, a squad stoppage and more than 30 departures. Relegation removes any table-based incentive, which can free a team or drain it, and it has also forced heavy personnel turnover. The structured table and form already capture the quality gap, so the open question is the visitors' motivation and cohesion rather than their record.
- Ponte Preta's 2-0 defeat to Cuiabá on 3 October confirmed relegation to Série C with seven rounds remaining.
- The club is bottom of Série B with 13 points and has lost 15 of its 16 away matches.
- It is a second relegation in 2026 after the Paulistão, matching the earliest demotion in the Série B points era (Duque de Caxias, 2011).
- Reporting cites unpaid wages, a squad stoppage and more than 30 player departures during the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Ponte Preta lost both regular full-backs, Jota and Diego Porfírio, in the week before the game, and Júlio is also injured, leaving Gilson Kleina to improvise. Globo Esporte EPTV and local reporters say he is weighing a right-back on the left flank or the loanee Di Mauro. The shortage matters because Novorizontino have the division's most productive attack and the hosts will look to exploit a makeshift defensive line. A narrower back four or extra midfield cover is a plausible response, which could further reduce Ponte Preta's already limited attacking width.
- Globo Esporte EPTV reported on 9 October that Jota and Diego Porfírio were out, reducing Ponte Preta's options at full-back.
- Murilo Godoy reported on 11 October that Diego Porfírio has left the club and that Júlio is injured.
- Lucas Rossafa reported that Kleina is weighing a right-back on the left or the young loanee Di Mauro as a replacement.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:55 · Europe/Bucharest
A 32-shot home display with 13 on target shows the attacking volume Novorizontino can produce at home. Ponte Preta have conceded heavily away, including a 0-6 loss at Londrina on 15 September 2026. The hosts also drew 0-0 with São Bernardo on 25 September despite 18 shots, so they have not always converted chances. That makes the Goiás match a high-water mark rather than a guaranteed repeat.
- On 2 October 2026, Novorizontino beat Goiás 3-0 at home, recording 32 shots and 13 on target (one-match sample).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.06
The read
The hosts are a top-three side with a strong home record facing a bottom club that has lost nearly every away match.
- Home league record 9W-4D-3L in 16 home games
- Away away record 1W-0D-15L, 7 scored and 43 conceded in 16
- Home home split 1.5 goals for, 0.63 against; away away split 0.25 for, 3.13 against
- Away sit 20th on 13 points from 32 and are already relegated
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The hosts start games well at home while the visitors rarely score before the break.
- Home first-half goals 0.875 per home game
- Away first-half goals 0.125 per away game
- Away first-half concession 1.63 per away game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts tend to pull away after the break against a side that fades.
- Home second-half goals 0.625 per home game
- Away second-half goals 0.125 per away game
- Away have conceded late goals in several heavy defeats
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts are a top-three side with a strong home record facing a bottom club that has lost nearly every away match. A draw would require the bottom side to hold out, something they have managed only twice all season.
- Home league record 9W-4D-3L in 16 home games
- Away away record 1W-0D-15L, 7 scored and 43 conceded in 16
- Home have drawn 4 of 16 home league games
- Away have 2 draws all season and none away from home
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts start games well at home while the visitors rarely score before the break. A cautious away set-up can keep the opening period level.
- Home first-half goals 0.875 per home game
- Away first-half goals 0.125 per away game
- Away have drawn the first half in several recent matches
- Home first-half average 0.875 goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance86%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts' home scoring and the visitors' heavy away concession rate point to a game around the three-goal mark.
- Home score 1.5 and concede 0.63 per home game
- Away concede 3.13 per away game
- Away have kept 1 clean sheet in 15 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
The visitors' away scoring record is so limited that at least one side is very likely to be kept out.
- Away blanked in 7 of 8 away league games
- Home clean sheets 5 in 15 overall
- Away total of 5 goals in 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have been shut out in almost every away match, so a home clean sheet is well supported.
- Home 3 clean sheets in 8 home games
- Away blanked in 7 of 8 away games
- Away score 0.25 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPonte Preta not to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side regularly scores before half-time, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Home first-half goals 0.875 per home game
- Away first-half goals 0.125 per away game
- Home scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With the away side rarely scoring after the break, second-half totals usually stay low.
- Away second-half average 0.125 goals away
- Home second-half average 0.625 at home
- Away have scored 1 goal in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
A dominant home side pressing a deep defence usually generates a high corner count.
- Home average 8.5 corners and concede 3.75 at home
- Away average 2.38 corners and concede 7.38 away
- Recent home matches produced 8, 13 and 13 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts generate a high shot volume and the visitors allow one away from home.
- Home average 20.9 shots and concede 9.4 at home
- Away average 8.1 shots and concede 21.5 away
- Recent home matches had 45, 30 and 41 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts' accuracy at home plus the visitors' leaky defence points to a comfortable on-target total.
- Home average 6.5 on-target and concede 2.0 at home
- Away average 2.25 on-target and concede 8.25 away
- Away have conceded 7 on-target in a single recent away game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A struggling away side that fouls and picks up reds makes a higher card count likely.
- Away average 2.63 yellows and 0.5 reds per away game
- Home average 1.63 yellows at home, opponents 2.13
- Away received 4 red cards in 8 away games
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.06 price requires 94.3%, above our 76.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Gremio Novorizontino SP matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B