Sollentuna FK3IFK Stocksund0

HT 1–0Fri 9 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 22:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Sollentuna are three places and nine points above bottom side Stocksund but have taken one point from their last five league games, while Stocksund have lost ten of twelve away.

The likeliest outcome is that Stocksund avoid defeat, and the quoted 2.3 for a draw or an away win holds up, as does 4.2 on a Stocksund win. Under 2.5 goals at 2.8 is a thinner case.

Context

Ten away defeats is the sharpest negative in either side's season record, and it is why the bottom-placed club are underdogs even against a host with three home league wins. The goals column softens it: 18 scored in those twelve away games is 1.5 per match, and June's 3-3 draw at Sollentuna showed they can score there. Sollentuna's own home record is three wins, three draws and six defeats from twelve.
- Ettan Norra standings as of 7 October 2026: Stocksund away record 12 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 10 defeats, 18 goals for, 26 against
- Overall league record 25 played, 3W 6D 16L, 45 goals for, 61 against, 15 points, 16th place
The hosts are three places and nine points above Stocksund, but the detail behind that gap is thin: their home record is negative and one point from five matches is the kind of run that invites an away result. Their 24-point season has been built more on draws — nine in 25 league games — than on wins. Against a side that has lost ten of twelve away games, though, home advantage still gives Sollentuna the better claim to the points.
- Ettan Norra standings as of 7 October 2026: Sollentuna 13th, 24 points from 25 games, 5W 9D 11L, form LLDLL
- Home league record: 12 played, 3W 3D 6L, 12 goals for, 19 against
Stocksund's goalkeeping changed hands in mid-September, when a loan signing, Villy Strindlund Larsen, debuted in the 2-1 win over IF Karlstad on 12 September and then conceded five in the 2-5 defeat at leaders FC Stockholm five days later. That is the only named detail available on the club's keeper situation for a side that has spent the autumn in the lower half of Ettan Norra. The posts come from a loans-tracking account rather than the club itself, and they precede Stocksund's three most recent league matches, so his continued selection at Sollentunavallen is unconfirmed.
- Villy Strindlund Larsen kept goal on his IFK Stocksund debut on 12 September, a 2-1 home win over IF Karlstad in Ettan Norra.
- He started again on 17 September and conceded five in a 2-5 loss away to league leaders FC Stockholm, making it six conceded in two appearances for Stocksund.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest
That 3-3 is the most recent competitive meeting and the clearest single reference point for an open game, with three goals at each end. Since then the two clubs have moved in different directions in the table, so the June scoreline is useful context rather than a guide to current strength. One meeting is a small sample and does not by itself show that this fixture will produce goals again.
- 13 June 2026, Ettan Norra: Stocksund 3-3 Sollentuna — the only league meeting between the clubs in 2026
- Sollentuna scored three as the away side on the day

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The hosts sit higher in the table and face a side that has lost ten of twelve away games, even though Sollentuna's own home record is modest.
- Sollentuna are 13th with 24 points (5W 9D 11L); Stocksund are 16th with 15 points (3W 6D 16L)
- Stocksund away in the league: 1W 1D 10L, 18 scored and 26 conceded in 12 games
- Sollentuna at home in the league: 3W 3D 6L, 12 scored and 19 conceded in 12 games
- Stocksund's away venue split in the current window is 0W 0D 7L with 8 goals scored and 18 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSollentuna FKEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stocksund have conceded 11 first-half goals in seven away games, which gives the hosts the best chance of leading at the break.
- Sollentuna's home first halves: 0.71 scored, 1.29 conceded per game (7 matches)
- Stocksund's away first halves: 0.29 scored, 1.57 conceded per game (7 matches)
- Stocksund conceded five first-half goals at Stockholm Internazionale on 17 September
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSollentuna FKEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two sides' second-half numbers are close to level, which makes a shared half score the most likely single result.
- Sollentuna's 13 window matches average 1.08 second-half goals; Stocksund's 14 average 2.0
- Stocksund's away second halves: 0.86 scored, 1.0 conceded
- Sollentuna's home second halves: 0.71 scored, 0.86 conceded
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts sit higher in the table and face a side that has lost ten of twelve away games, even though Sollentuna's own home record is modest. Stocksund score regularly on the road and have twice avoided defeat against Sollentuna this year, but they have lost ten of twelve away games.
- Sollentuna are 13th with 24 points (5W 9D 11L); Stocksund are 16th with 15 points (3W 6D 16L)
- Stocksund away in the league: 1W 1D 10L, 18 scored and 26 conceded in 12 games
- Stocksund's 25 league games have produced 45 goals for and 61 against, an average of 4.2 goals
- Stocksund have scored 18 in 12 league away games (1.5 per game)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSollentuna FK or IFK StocksundEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund have conceded 11 first-half goals in seven away games, which gives the hosts the best chance of leading at the break. Both recent records show plenty of half-time stalemates, and first halves here are lower-scoring than the full games.
- Sollentuna's home first halves: 0.71 scored, 1.29 conceded per game (7 matches)
- Stocksund's away first halves: 0.29 scored, 1.57 conceded per game (7 matches)
- Sollentuna were level at half-time in three of their last four matches
- Stocksund were level at the break in three of their last six
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSollentuna FK or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Games involving Stocksund have repeatedly produced goals at both ends, and recent meetings between these two have been open.
- Stocksund's 25 league games total 106 goals (45 for, 61 against)
- Sollentuna's league games average 2.4 goals; their 12 home league games average 2.6
- Stocksund's seven away window matches average 3.71 goals
- Last five head-to-heads produced 6, 2, 2, 3 and 5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets often and both have scored regularly enough for the other to find the net.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Sollentuna's 13 window matches and 9 of Stocksund's 14
- Sollentuna both-scored in 6 of 7 home window games; Stocksund in 5 of their last 6
- Clean sheets are rare: 2 in 13 for Sollentuna, 1 in 14 for Stocksund
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's scoring has been thin at home and in recent weeks, so two or more goals is not the likelier outcome.
- Sollentuna have scored one or fewer in four of their last six matches
- League home scoring is 1.0 goals per game across 12 matches
- Sollentuna's home window total is 10 goals in 7 games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSollentuna FK under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's recent away scoring has been modest, making a single goal or none slightly more likely.
- Stocksund scored one or fewer in four of their last six matches
- Their away window output is 8 goals in 7 matches (1.14 per game)
- Sollentuna kept one clean sheet in seven home window matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIFK Stocksund under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both Sollentuna's clean-sheet record and Stocksund's scoring habit point to the visitors getting at least one goal.
- Sollentuna kept 2 clean sheets in 13 window matches, 1 in 7 at home
- Stocksund failed to score in only 4 of 14 window matches
- Stocksund scored in 5 of their last 6
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIFK Stocksund to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's away defensive record makes it very likely Sollentuna score at least once.
- Stocksund have 1 clean sheet in 14 window matches and none in 7 away games
- Sollentuna have scored in 10 of 13 window matches
- Stocksund concede 2.57 goals per away window match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSollentuna FK to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams' first halves regularly contain at least one goal, with Sollentuna conceding 1.29 and Stocksund 1.57 before the break in their respective venue splits.
- Sollentuna's matches average 1.92 first-half goals; Stocksund's 1.71
- Stocksund's seven away window matches average 1.86 first-half goals
- Five of Stocksund's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Sollentuna's home first halves average 2.0 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals for both sides have been uncommon, with Stocksund rarely scoring before the break away from home.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 4 of the two clubs' last 12 matches combined
- Stocksund's away first halves: 0.29 scored, 1.57 conceded
- Sollentuna were 0-0 at half-time in 2 of their last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's away second halves are open, though Sollentuna's own second-half scoring is light, leaving the line near even.
- Sollentuna's home second halves average 1.57 goals; Stocksund's away second halves average 1.86
- Stocksund's last six matches produced 1.5 second-half goals per game
- Sollentuna's last six produced 0.83 second-half goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%