IFK Stocksund0Karlbergs BK2

HT 0–1Sat 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 23:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlbergs BK's dominant H2H record and IFK Stocksund's winless home form make the double chance (Draw or Karlbergs BK) at 1.53 the standout value, with a 10-point edge over implied probability.

Avoid backing Stocksund in any capacity, as they have failed to score in their last three home meetings against Karlbergs.

Context

Karlbergs won the last four competitive H2Hs: 3-2, 5-0, 2-0, 1-0.
- In the three away wins at Stocksund, Karlbergs kept clean sheets each time.
- Stocksund failed to score in all three home H2H fixtures against Karlbergs.
Stocksund's home record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses.
- They have conceded 25 goals in 7 home matches, averaging 3.57 per game.
- Only one home match this season saw them keep a clean sheet.
Stocksund are bottom with 8 points, five points behind 14th place.
- Karlbergs are 8th with 18 points, 10 points clear of the relegation zone.
- This is match 15 of 30, so the result is not decisive but pressure is asymmetric.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's dominant H2H record, especially away clean sheets, combined with IFK Stocksund's poor home form and league position, gives the visitors a clear edge despite their own inconsistent away results.
- Karlbergs BK have won the last 4 competitive H2H meetings, including 3 away wins at IFK Stocksund with clean sheets (1-0, 2-0, 5-0).
- IFK Stocksund are winless at home this season (0-4-3) and have conceded 25 goals in 7 home matches (3.57 per game).
- Karlbergs BK away record is 3-1-3 with 14 goals scored in 7 away games, averaging 2.0 goals per away match.
- IFK Stocksund sit bottom of the table with 8 points from 14 games, while Karlbergs are 8th with 18 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKarlbergs BKEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given IFK Stocksund's inability to win at home and Karlbergs BK's strong H2H dominance, the double chance covering a draw or away win is highly probable, supported by the home side's league-worst form.
- IFK Stocksund have not beaten Karlbergs BK in the last 5 meetings (0-1-4).
- IFK Stocksund have won only 1 of 14 league matches this season and are winless at home.
- Karlbergs BK have lost only 3 of 7 away matches, with all losses against top-half teams.
- IFK Stocksund have drawn 5 of 14 matches, including 4 of 7 at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Karlbergs BKEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's superior first-half performance and H2H history give them a slight edge to lead at the break, though IFK Stocksund's home resilience makes this a low-confidence call.
- Karlbergs BK have led at halftime in 47% of their matches this season, compared to IFK Stocksund's 33%.
- Karlbergs BK have won the first half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- IFK Stocksund have trailed at halftime in 33% of matches and drawn in 33%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Karlbergs BK led at halftime in 3 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonKarlbergs BKEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of IFK Stocksund holding on early before fading, combined with Karlbergs BK's stronger second halves, makes a draw at halftime followed by an away win a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- IFK Stocksund have drawn at halftime in 33% of matches, and Karlbergs BK have won the second half in 40% of their away matches.
- In 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings, the match was level at halftime before Karlbergs BK won.
- IFK Stocksund have lost 8 of 14 matches, with 5 of those losses coming after a drawn first half.
- Karlbergs BK have a positive second-half goal difference in away matches (+3).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Karlbergs BKEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies in their respective home/away splits, with IFK Stocksund's leaky defense at home and Karlbergs BK's consistent away scoring making over 2.5 goals likely.
- IFK Stocksund's home matches average 6.0 total goals (17 scored, 25 conceded in 7 games).
- Karlbergs BK's away matches average 3.57 total goals (14 scored, 11 conceded in 7 games).
- IFK Stocksund have seen over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches across all competitions.
- Karlbergs BK have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Karlbergs BK's recent H2H clean sheets at this venue, IFK Stocksund's consistent home scoring and Karlbergs BK's vulnerability away suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- IFK Stocksund have scored in 6 of 7 home matches this season, averaging 2.43 goals per home game.
- Karlbergs BK have conceded in 5 of 7 away matches, keeping only 2 clean sheets on the road.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 competitive H2H meetings.
- IFK Stocksund have failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's away defensive record is poor, and IFK Stocksund's home scoring form makes a clean sheet for the visitors unlikely, despite their historical success at this ground.
- Karlbergs BK have kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 away league matches this season.
- IFK Stocksund have scored in 6 of 7 home matches, failing to score only once at home.
- Karlbergs BK have conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches across all competitions.
- IFK Stocksund average 2.43 goals per home game, the highest among bottom-half teams.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIFK Stocksund to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Stocksund's strong home scoring record, combined with Karlbergs BK's occasional defensive lapses away, supports the home side scoring at least twice.
- IFK Stocksund have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of 7 home matches this season.
- IFK Stocksund average 2.43 goals per home game, with only one home match yielding fewer than 2 goals.
- Karlbergs BK have conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- IFK Stocksund scored 2 goals in the most recent H2H friendly (Jan 2026).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostIFK Stocksund over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start quickly, with Karlbergs BK's strong first-half scoring and IFK Stocksund's home aggression likely producing an open first period.
- IFK Stocksund average 0.9 first-half goals at home, with 5 of 7 home matches seeing at least 1 first-half goal.
- Karlbergs BK average 1.1 first-half goals overall, and 4 of their last 5 away matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- IFK Stocksund have led at halftime in 33% of matches, while Karlbergs BK have led in 47%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without direct corner stats, the high-scoring nature of both teams' matches and the tactical openness implied by their goal records suggest a corner count above 9.5, though confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams, but match context suggests an open, attacking game with many shots.
- IFK Stocksund's home matches average high shot volumes (inferred from 6.0 total goals per game).
- Karlbergs BK's away matches average 3.57 total goals, indicating end-to-end play.
- In the last H2H friendly (Jan 2026), the match saw 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

IFK Stocksund: Over 2.5 goals has been fulfilled in 3 of 5 recent matches

The Over 2.5 goals projection has been fulfilled in 3 of the last 5 matches involving IFK Stocksund. The average estimated probability in those matches was 71%, with an expected fulfilment of 3.6, indicating slight underperformance. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 60–85%, and the team has seen Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 3 away matches compared to 1 of 2 at home.

Recent evidence for IFK Stocksund5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra