Hammarby TFF2IFK Stocksund1

HT 1–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Third-placed Hammarby TFF host bottom club IFK Stocksund, yet the home side have drawn three of their last six and average 1.43 goals a game at home, so the 1.2 on a Hammarby TFF win offers little.

The draw at 7, the first half ending level at 3.1, Under 2.5 goals at 3.6 and a goalless first half at 4.33 do.

Context

Hammarby TFF signed Ettan Norra's leading scorer, Granit Hana, on a two-and-a-half-year deal in the final days of August, the club's own announcement confirms, giving coach Daniel Erlandsson a proven third-tier finisher in a squad otherwise built on academy players. He is the clearest attacking upgrade available to the home side for Friday's match, and the deal was read as a signal that TFF intended to push on at the top. The complication is the timing: TFF lost the division lead and have won once in five league games since he arrived, and Hana's 13 goals were scored for FBK Karlstad rather than for his new club.
- Hammarby Fotboll announced on 28 August 2026 that striker Granit Hana had signed for Hammarby TFF on a two-and-a-half-year contract.
- Kanalplan 1915 reported the same day that Hana was Ettan Norra's top scorer with 13 goals and one assist in 18 league games for FBK Karlstad.
- G. Hana started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:41 · Europe/Bucharest
IFK Stocksund have changed goalkeepers mid-season: a loan arrival, Villy Strindlund Larsen, has started both of their matches this month and conceded six goals across them. The goalkeeper slot is therefore a live condition going into a fixture against a Hammarby TFF side that has just signed the division's top scorer. His debut was a 2-1 win over IF Karlstad and the five goals came at runaway leaders FC Stockholm, so the two-match record reflects the defence and the opponent as much as the goalkeeper.
- Villy Strindlund Larsen made his IFK Stocksund debut in the 2-1 win over IF Karlstad on 12 September 2026.
- He conceded five goals in his second start, a 2-5 defeat at Ettan Norra leaders FC Stockholm on 17 September 2026, taking his tally to six conceded in two appearances.
- V. Strindlund Larsen started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Rhawi started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when V. Strindlund Larsen did not start.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Marrah was a regular in Hammarby TFF's strongest stretch of the season, so his exit removes a known quantity from the group that will close out the campaign. Kanalplan 1915, which covers the club closely, described the loss as painful for the run-in and noted the loan carries a purchase option, making a return unlikely. For this fixture the practical effect is a thinner senior core in a side whose best young players are also being drawn towards Hammarby's first team.
- Hammarby Fotboll announced on 28 August 2026 that Keyano Marrah had been loaned from Hammarby TFF to Östers IF.
- Kanalplan 1915 reported the same day that the deal included a purchase option, described Marrah as one of the team's best players this season and called his exit a painful loss for Hammarby TFF in the closing rounds.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:41 · Europe/Bucharest
That 11 April fixture at Stocksund ended 4-2 to the visitors and produced six goals, making it the most recent meeting between the two clubs on record. It is the single 2026 meeting available, so it is the freshest head-to-head reference for Friday's match. The caution is that one result from five months ago carries limited weight for a fixture at the other ground.
- Stocksund 2-4 Hammarby Talang, Ettan Norra, 11 April 2026 — an away win for Hammarby TFF.
- It is the most recent meeting between the clubs in the supplied head-to-head record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
League position and Stocksund's poor away record point to a home win, though Hammarby TFF's recent scoring has been limited.
- Hammarby TFF are 3rd with 42 points; IFK Stocksund are 16th with 14 points.
- Hammarby TFF home record is 4W 5D 2L; Stocksund away record is 1W 1D 9L.
- Hammarby TFF concede 0.86 goals per home match; Stocksund concede 2.43 per away match.
- Hammarby TFF won 4-2 away at Stocksund in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHammarby TFFEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
Hammarby TFF often reach half-time level, especially at home.
- Three of Hammarby TFF's last six first halves ended 0-0.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.43 first-half goals for and 0.71 against at home.
- Stocksund away first-half matches average 2.28 total goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF are stronger after half-time at home and should win the second half more often than not.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.0 second-half goals at home and concede 0.14.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.2 second-half goals overall and concede 0.4.
- Stocksund concede 0.86 second-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
League position and Stocksund's poor away record point to a home win, though Hammarby TFF's recent scoring has been limited. Hammarby TFF's low-scoring home games and recent stalemates make a draw plausible.
- Hammarby TFF are 3rd with 42 points; IFK Stocksund are 16th with 14 points.
- Hammarby TFF home record is 4W 5D 2L; Stocksund away record is 1W 1D 9L.
- Hammarby TFF have drawn 5 of 11 home league matches.
- Hammarby TFF's last six matches include three draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHammarby TFF or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's early away defensive issues give Hammarby TFF a fair chance to lead at half-time. Hammarby TFF often reach half-time level, especially at home.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.43 first-half goals at home.
- Stocksund concede 1.57 first-half goals per away match.
- Three of Hammarby TFF's last six first halves ended 0-0.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.43 first-half goals for and 0.71 against at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHammarby TFF or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's high-scoring away games and weak defense make over 2.5 goals more likely.
- Stocksund away matches average 4.29 total goals.
- All six of Stocksund's recent matches had 3 or more goals.
- Hammarby TFF home matches average 2.29 total goals.
- The last two head-to-head meetings produced 6 and 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both sides have shown they can score and concede in these venue splits.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Stocksund's 7 away matches tracked.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Hammarby TFF's 7 home matches tracked.
- Stocksund scored in 5 of 7 away matches; Hammarby TFF scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's home scoring has been modest, making under 1.5 more likely.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.43 goals per home match.
- Hammarby TFF scored one or zero in their last three home matches.
- Hammarby TFF scored 10 goals in 7 home matches tracked.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHammarby TFF under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund have a steady away scoring threat despite their poor results.
- Stocksund average 1.86 goals per away match.
- Stocksund scored 2 or more in two of their last three away matches.
- Stocksund scored 13 goals in 7 away matches tracked.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostIFK Stocksund over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund usually find a goal away, making a home clean sheet less likely.
- Stocksund scored in 5 of 7 away matches tracked.
- Hammarby TFF conceded in 5 of 7 home matches tracked.
- Hammarby TFF have 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches tracked.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIFK Stocksund to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's poor defensive record makes an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Stocksund have 0 clean sheets in 7 away matches tracked.
- Hammarby TFF scored in 6 of 7 home matches tracked.
- Stocksund conceded in all six recent matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHammarby TFF to scoreEstimated chance91%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A home win without conceding is possible but not the most likely home result.
- Hammarby TFF have 2 wins in 7 home matches tracked.
- Stocksund scored in 5 of 7 away matches tracked.
- Hammarby TFF have drawn 5 of 11 home league matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's away first halves often produce goals, making over 0.5 more likely.
- Stocksund away first-half matches average 2.28 total goals.
- Five of Stocksund's last six first halves had at least one goal.
- Hammarby TFF home first-half matches average 1.14 total goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Hammarby TFF rarely score in the first half, making both teams scoring unlikely.
- Hammarby TFF have not had a first-half both-teams-score in their last six.
- Stocksund have had first-half both-teams-score in only 2 of their last six.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.43 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's second halves have been high scoring, making over 1.5 more likely.
- Stocksund's last six second halves produced 14 goals.
- Four of Stocksund's last six second halves had over 1.5 goals.
- Hammarby TFF overall second-half matches average 1.6 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%