Hammarby TFF1Sollentuna FK0

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–450%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby TFF are strong favourites on paper but the market has overpriced them, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The best betting edge is 'Away Clean Sheet: No' at 1.73, where our 70% estimate beats the 57.8% implied probability for a +12 point edge.

Context

Hammarby TFF are second in the table with 38 points, four behind leaders Stockholm Internazionale.
Their recent form is poor: they lost 0-3 to Stockholm Internazionale on 5 September, drew 0-0 with Karlberg on 31 August, and drew 1-1 with Piteå on 23 August. This run may make them more cautious or desperate for a win, but it also shows they are struggling to convert chances.
- Lost 0-3 to Stockholm Internazionale on 2026-09-05.
- Drew 0-0 with Karlberg on 2026-08-31.
- Drew 1-1 with Piteå on 2026-08-23.
Hammarby TFF attacker G. Hana joined from FBK Karlstad on 28 August and has started 2 of the last 5 available lineups.
His arrival adds a proven Ettan Norra scorer to the home squad, with 13 goals in 18 matches at the time of signing. That gives Hammarby TFF another final-third option for this match, though his recent starts suggest he may not be guaranteed a place.
- HTFF confirmed that Hana joined from FBK Karlstad on a two-and-a-half-year contract.
- At the time of the announcement, HTFF said he shared the Ettan Norra scoring lead with 13 goals in 18 matches.
- G. Hana started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 23:13 · Europe/BucharestHTFF: HTFF värvar Granit Hanawww.htff.se · 28 Aug 2026
Sollentuna FK are 12th in the table with 23 points, 12 points above the relegation line.
Their away record is weak: two wins, five draws, and three losses in ten games, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. This suggests they may find it hard to break down Hammarby TFF, especially given the home side's need for points.
- Away record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses in 10 matches.
- Scored 10 goals and conceded 13 away from home.
The teams have met five times in Ettan Norra since 2024.
Hammarby TFF won 2-0 at Sollentuna on 13 May 2026, 4-0 at home on 22 September 2025, and 3-2 away on 4 April 2025. This pattern suggests Hammarby TFF know how to beat Sollentuna FK, but past results do not guarantee a repeat.
- Hammarby TFF won 2-0 away on 2026-05-13.
- Hammarby TFF won 4-0 home on 2025-09-22.
- Hammarby TFF won 3-2 away on 2025-04-04.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's superior league position, stronger overall record, and recent H2H dominance give them a clear edge despite their current poor form.
- Hammarby TFF are 2nd with 38 points, 15 points ahead of 12th-placed Sollentuna FK.
- Hammarby TFF have won 11 of 20 league matches, while Sollentuna have won only 5.
- Hammarby TFF won the most recent H2H 2-0 away in May 2026 and have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHammarby TFFEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's low loss rate and Sollentuna's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Hammarby TFF have lost only 4 of 20 league matches this season.
- Sollentuna FK have won only 2 of 10 away matches.
- Hammarby TFF are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHammarby TFF or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's tendency to lead at half-time and Sollentuna's tendency to trail give the home side a slight first-half edge.
- Hammarby TFF led at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Sollentuna FK trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.6 first-half goals vs Sollentuna's 0.7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHammarby TFFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's ability to lead at half-time and convert to wins makes HT/FT home/home a plausible but not highly probable outcome.
- Hammarby TFF led at half-time in 40% of matches and won 55% overall.
- Sollentuna FK trailed at half-time in 40% and lost 35% overall.
- Hammarby TFF won the last H2H 2-0 with a 1-0 half-time lead.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonHammarby TFF / Hammarby TFFEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages suggest a high-scoring match, with Hammarby's strong attack likely to exploit Sollentuna's leaky defense.
- Hammarby TFF average 2.1 goals scored per match and 0.7 conceded.
- Sollentuna FK average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match for both teams is 3.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's ability to score away and Hammarby's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a reasonable possibility.
- Sollentuna FK have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- Hammarby TFF have conceded in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Hammarby TFF average 0.6 first-half goals per match.
- Sollentuna FK average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.3.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as the match opens up, but confidence is low due to limited direct data.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.5 second-half goals per match (2.1 total minus 0.6 first-half).
- Sollentuna FK average 0.6 second-half goals per match (1.3 total minus 0.7 first-half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.1.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's solid home defense and Sollentuna's occasional scoring struggles give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Hammarby TFF have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sollentuna FK have failed to score in 2 of their last 10 away matches.
- Hammarby TFF won the last H2H 2-0.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSollentuna FK not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's poor away defensive record and Hammarby's consistent home scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Sollentuna FK have kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 away matches.
- Hammarby TFF have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
- Hammarby TFF average 2.1 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHammarby TFF to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong home scoring record and Sollentuna's defensive vulnerabilities support over 1.5 home goals.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.9 goals per home match (19 goals in 10 home games).
- Hammarby TFF have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sollentuna FK concede an average of 1.3 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHammarby TFF over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's decent away scoring rate and Hammarby's occasional defensive lapses make an away goal likely.
- Sollentuna FK average 1.0 goals per away match (10 goals in 10 away games).
- Sollentuna FK have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- Hammarby TFF concede an average of 1.1 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSollentuna FK over 0.5Estimated chance60%