IFK Stocksund5Gefle IF0

HT 1–0Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 23:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Back over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as all three H2H meetings cleared that line and both sides have consistently leaky defenses.

The double chance 'Draw or Gefle IF' is a safer match outcome play given Stocksund's winless home record, but offers no value edge. Avoid backing Gefle to lead at halftime due to their poor first-half performances.

Context

Home record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses.
- 27 goals conceded in 8 home games (3.4 per match).
- Both teams scored in 7 of those 8 home matches.
Managerial change announced 25 May 2026.
- Olsson's return is an established reset, not a match-week event.
- Recent form: 2 wins, 3 losses in last 5, with a clean sheet away last time out.
27 Jun 2026: Gefle 2-1 Stocksund
- 27 Sep 2025: Stocksund 2-2 Gefle
- 4 May 2025: Gefle 1-2 Stocksund

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's poor home form and Gefle's recent H2H win give Gefle a slight edge, though both teams are inconsistent.
- Gefle IF won the most recent H2H (2-1 on 27 Jun 2026).
- IFK Stocksund are winless at home this season (0W-4D-4L).
- Gefle IF have 2 away wins this season, while Stocksund have 0 home wins.
- Gefle IF's recent form (last 5): WWLLL; Stocksund's: LLLDW.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGefle IFEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's inability to win at home makes a draw or away win the most probable outcome, supported by H2H balance.
- IFK Stocksund have not won at home this season (0W-4D-4L).
- Gefle IF have lost only 5 of 8 away games, with 2 wins and 1 draw.
- H2H: 1 win each and 1 draw in last 3 meetings.
- Stocksund's last 5 home matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Gefle IFEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often trail or draw at halftime, and H2H shows a tendency for level scores at the break, making a draw the most plausible first-half outcome.
- IFK Stocksund led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- Gefle IF led at halftime in 20% of matches, trailed in 53%.
- H2H first-half results: 0-1, 0-0, 1-0 (two draws at halftime).
- Stocksund's last 5 first-half results: L, D, W, D, W.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's tendency to fade in second halves, especially at home, gives Gefle a slight edge to win the second period.
- Gefle IF have a better second-half record in recent H2H (won second half in last meeting).
- IFK Stocksund have conceded heavily at home in second halves (many goals against).
- Gefle IF's away matches often see them score in the second half.
- Stocksund's last 5 second-half results: L, D, L, D, L.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGefle IFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Gefle win is a plausible sequence given Stocksund's second-half collapses and Gefle's ability to capitalize.
- H2H: one match was 0-0 at halftime, Gefle won 2-1.
- Stocksund drew at halftime in 2 of last 5, lost second half in 3 of those.
- Gefle have come from behind or drawn at halftime to win in 2 of last 5.
- Stocksund's home matches: 4 draws at halftime, 4 losses at full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Gefle IFEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows the dominance required to win both halves, especially with Stocksund's poor form and Gefle's inconsistency.
- IFK Stocksund have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Gefle IF have won both halves only once in their last 15 matches.
- H2H: neither team has won both halves in any of the three meetings.
- Stocksund's home record: 0 wins, so winning both halves is extremely unlikely.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund rarely lead at halftime, especially at home, making a draw or Gefle lead the most likely first-half outcome.
- IFK Stocksund led at halftime in only 33% of matches, trailing in 40%.
- Gefle IF trailed at halftime in 53% of matches, but Stocksund's home first-half record is poor.
- H2H first-half results: Gefle led once, draw twice.
- Stocksund's last 5 home first halves: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Gefle IFEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring trends, especially in H2H and Stocksund's home games, making over 2.5 goals highly likely.
- IFK Stocksund's last 15 matches averaged 3.9 total goals (1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded).
- Gefle IF's last 15 matches averaged 3.2 total goals (1.3 scored, 1.9 conceded).
- All three H2H meetings since May 2025 have seen over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
- IFK Stocksund's home matches this season average 5.5 total goals (17 scored, 27 conceded in 8 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Consistent scoring and conceding patterns from both sides, reinforced by perfect BTTS in H2H, strongly support both teams scoring.
- Both teams scored in all three H2H meetings since 2025.
- IFK Stocksund scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, conceding in 14.
- Gefle IF scored in 10 of their last 15 matches, conceding in 13.
- IFK Stocksund's home record: 17 goals scored, 27 conceded in 8 games (both teams scored in 7 of 8).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half averages suggest around 1.7 goals, and with both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, over 1.5 first-half goals is likely.
- IFK Stocksund average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.
- Gefle IF average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- In H2H, first-half goals: 1, 0, and 1 in the three meetings.
- Stocksund's last 5 matches: first-half goals totals of 1, 0, 1, 0, 3 (avg 1.0).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher-scoring for both teams, with H2H and season averages supporting over 1.5 goals after the break.
- IFK Stocksund's matches average 2.2 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half).
- Gefle IF's matches average 1.7 second-half goals.
- H2H second-half goals: 1, 2, 2 in the three meetings.
- Stocksund's last 5 matches: second-half goals of 1, 1, 1, 1, 2 (avg 1.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring and conceding rates suggest a decent chance both teams find the net before the break, though not overwhelmingly strong.
- IFK Stocksund average 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.8 conceded.
- Gefle IF average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 1.0 conceded.
- H2H first-half goals: 1, 0, 1 (both scored in 2 of 3).
- Stocksund's last 5 first halves: both scored in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of corner data, the attacking nature of both teams and league averages suggest a moderate chance of over 9.5 corners, but evidence is weak.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats.
- Ettan Norra matches typically average around 9-10 corners per game.
- Both teams' playing styles (based on goals) suggest attacking intent, which often correlates with higher corner counts.
- No specific corner data to confirm, so this is a low-confidence estimate.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 30.8% leaves no cushion vs our 35% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Yes play.

Prediction history

IFK Stocksund: Over 2.5 goals has been fulfilled in 3 of 6 recent matches

IFK Stocksund has seen Over 2.5 goals land in 3 of their last 6 matches when projected. The average estimated probability in those matches was 69.2%, with an expected 4.2 fulfilled predictions, indicating a slight underperformance. Notably, the matched predictions had a higher average probability (76.7%) compared to the missed ones (61.7%), suggesting that higher-confidence projections were more reliable.

Recent evidence for IFK Stocksund6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra