Karlbergs BK3Sollentuna FK2

HT 2–2Fri 2 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 04:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlbergs' six-match home window against a Sollentuna side with no away win in five matches since 3 August — but one that has drawn six of 12 league games on the road.

Karlbergs look the likelier winners, yet the 2.1 for that does not justify a bet. At least one team failing to score at 2.2 and fewer than 2.5 goals at 2.05 are the prices with a case.

Context

That split is the main reason Karlbergs rate as the likelier winner and part of why a low total is in play. Sollentuna have still drawn twice on the road in that run, and their season away record of six draws from 12 league games shows how often they leave with a point anyway. Two goals in five matches is a thin return from a small sample, so it should not be treated as a fixed rate.
- Sollentuna FK away split, 3 August to 19 September 2026: 5 matches, 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 2 goals scored.
This split is the bedrock of Karlbergs' case for the win, and it also argues against a level result, since none of those six home matches finished drawn. The two defeats inside the same run, including a 0-2 home loss to Stockholm Internazionale on 20 September 2026, show the run is not a guarantee of control, and Karlbergs have scored only twice across their last six matches in total.
- Karlbergs home split, 24 June to 20 September 2026: 6 matches, 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 3 clean sheets.
Sollentuna FK and Karlbergs BK last met on 9 November 2025 in Ettan Norra, drawing 2-2 at Sollentunavallen, which is the freshest direct read on the matchup. The fixture now shifts to Karlbergs' home ground, so the earlier result came under different conditions. It is still a single game from a previous season, and both squads have changed since, so the draw is a reference point rather than a firm signal of how this one will go.
- Sollentuna FK and Karlbergs BK drew 2-2 at Sollentunavallen on 9 November 2025.
- That 2025 meeting kicked off at 15:00, with a 13:30 team gathering beforehand.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 04:07 · Europe/BucharestMatch record: Sollentuna FK 2-2 Karlbergs BK, 9 November 2025www.karlbergsbk.se · 9 Nov 2025
Karlbergs BK and Sollentuna FK also met on 4 October 2024, when Sollentuna won 2-1 at Sollentunavallen. Augustin Muyenga put Karlbergs ahead in the sixth minute before Pascal Simba struck twice within the next two minutes. It shows the fixture has swung quickly and that Karlbergs have been punished early by this opponent, but the match is nearly two years old and predates both current squads, so it carries limited weight for this game.
- Sollentuna FK beat Karlbergs BK 2-1 at Sollentunavallen on 4 October 2024.
- Pascal Simba scored in the 7th and 8th minutes after Augustin Muyenga had given Karlbergs a 6th-minute lead.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 04:07 · Europe/BucharestMatch report: Sollentuna FK 2-1 Karlbergs BK, 4 October 2024www.transfermarkt.com · 4 Oct 2024

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

−9.5ppshort

Recent matches for both teams have usually featured at least one goal before half-time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Karlbergs are the stronger side at home in the recent window and have won the two latest meetings between the clubs.
- Karlbergs home window: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 6 matches, 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded per game
- Sollentuna away window: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 5 matches, 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded per game
- Karlbergs won both of the two most recent meetings (2-1 in July 2026, 1-0 in April 2026), both played at Sollentuna
- Season records: Karlbergs 8W-5D-11L (rank 11), Sollentuna 5W-9D-10L (rank 13)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKarlbergs BKEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs concede very little before the break while Sollentuna give up more than a goal a game in first halves.
- Karlbergs first-half window averages: 0.77 scored, 0.38 conceded; at home 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded
- Sollentuna first-half window averages: 0.54 scored, 1.23 conceded; away 0.40 scored, 1.00 conceded
- Sollentuna conceded first-half goals in 4 of their 6 most recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostKarlbergs BKEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is limited on both sides in the current sample, which favours a level half.
- Sollentuna conceded 0.40 second-half goals per away game in the window
- Karlbergs scored 0.46 second-half goals per match across the window
- Karlbergs conceded 0.92 second-half goals per match across the window
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs are the stronger side at home in the recent window and have won the two latest meetings between the clubs. Sollentuna's habit of taking a point on the road, including six away draws this season, keeps a share of the points in range.
- Karlbergs home window: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 6 matches, 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded per game
- Sollentuna away window: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 5 matches, 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded per game
- Sollentuna have drawn 9 of 24 league games overall and 6 of 12 away games
- Karlbergs have drawn 5 of 24 league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKarlbergs BK or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs concede very little before the break while Sollentuna give up more than a goal a game in first halves. First-half scoring is modest for both sides, so the break arriving level is a strong possibility.
- Karlbergs first-half window averages: 0.77 scored, 0.38 conceded; at home 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded
- Sollentuna first-half window averages: 0.54 scored, 1.23 conceded; away 0.40 scored, 1.00 conceded
- Karlbergs home first-half totals average 0.84 goals per game
- Sollentuna first-half scoring average is 0.54 per match across the window
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKarlbergs BK or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Both split samples point to a low total, with Sollentuna contributing very little scoring on their travels.
- Karlbergs home window matches average 2.33 total goals; Sollentuna away window matches average 1.80
- Sollentuna average 0.40 goals per away game in the window
- Karlbergs scored twice across their last six matches in the window
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The clean-sheet records of both splits make one team failing to score the more likely outcome.
- Karlbergs kept 6 clean sheets in 13 window matches, 3 of them in 6 home games
- Sollentuna failed to score in 3 of their 5 away matches in the window
- Sollentuna scored in only 9 of 13 matches overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' home scoring is moderate and recently thin, which makes two or more goals the less likely side.
- Karlbergs scored at 1.33 goals per home game in the window across 6 matches
- Karlbergs failed to score in 2 of those 6 home matches
- Only 2 goals in Karlbergs' last six matches in the window
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostKarlbergs BK under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna have produced very little on their travels and Karlbergs' home defence has been stingy.
- Sollentuna away window: 2 goals in 5 matches
- Sollentuna overall window scoring average 0.92 per game
- Karlbergs kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches in the window
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSollentuna FK under 1.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs concede at a rate of one goal per home game in the window, so a clean sheet is not the safer outcome.
- Karlbergs conceded in 3 of 6 home matches in the window
- Sollentuna scored in 2 of 5 away matches in the window
- Karlbergs conceded 17 goals in 24 league games this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSollentuna FK to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs find a goal in most home games and Sollentuna rarely keep opponents out.
- Karlbergs scored in 4 of 6 home matches in the window
- Sollentuna conceded 4 goals in 5 away matches in the window
- Sollentuna kept only 2 clean sheets in 13 window matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKarlbergs BK to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A clean-sheet win requires Karlbergs to both score and shut out Sollentuna, which their recent scoring makes harder.
- Karlbergs scored only 2 goals across the last six matches in the window
- Sollentuna scored in 2 of 5 away matches in the window
- Karlbergs conceded in 3 of 6 home matches in the window
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Recent matches for both teams have usually featured at least one goal before half-time.
- Karlbergs' last six matches produced 4 first-half goals
- Sollentuna's last six matches produced 9 first-half goals
- Sollentuna first-half window totals average 1.77 goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams finding the net before half-time requires an early Sollentuna goal their away form does not support.
- Karlbergs first-half goals conceded at home: 0.17 per game in the window
- Sollentuna first-half goals scored away: 0.40 per game in the window
- Karlbergs first-half goals scored at home: 0.67 per game in the window
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half output is modest, and Sollentuna have produced almost nothing after the break away from home.
- Sollentuna away second-half totals average 0.40 goals per match in the window
- Sollentuna overall window second-half total 1.00 goals per match
- Karlbergs conceded 0.83 second-half goals per home game in the window
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance67%