FC Jarfalla5Karlbergs BK0

HT 1–0Thu 17 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges2–625%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 23:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Karlbergs BK to win at 1.91 (model edge +10 points) or the double chance Draw/Karlbergs at 1.30.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the market overprices both relative to the model's estimates.

Context

FC Jarfalla are 15th in the 16-team Ettan Norra with 15 points from 21 matches, only one point above the relegation line.
Their last five league results are all defeats: 1-3 at Gefle IF on 12 September, 0-3 at home to FBK Karlstad on 5 September, 0-2 at home to Assyriska FF on 29 August, 0-2 at Stockholm Internazionale on 21 August, and 1-2 at Sollentuna on 15 August. In that run they have scored only two goals and conceded 12. This poor form increases the pressure on them to get a result at home, but it also shows how vulnerable their defence has been.
- FC Jarfalla have lost their last five league matches: 1-3 at Gefle IF (12 Sep), 0-3 vs FBK Karlstad (5 Sep), 0-2 vs Assyriska FF (29 Aug), 0-2 at Stockholm Internazionale (21 Aug), 1-2 at Sollentuna (15 Aug).
- They have conceded 12 goals and scored only 2 in those five matches.
- FC Jarfalla are 15th with 15 points, one point above the relegation line.
FC Järfälla sit 15th after 21 matches, inside the direct-relegation places.
This home fixture carries immediate survival importance for the hosts. Their need for points can influence how they approach the game, particularly in terms of risk-taking and game-state intent. The linked analysis sees Karlbergs BK as the most likely winner, but the relegation pressure may push FC Järfälla to commit more players forward at times.
- Karlbergs BK’s current Ettan Norra table lists FC Järfälla 15th on 15 points from 21 matches.
- The competition table identifies positions 14 through 16 as direct-relegation places.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 23:43 · Europe/BucharestKarlbergs BK men’s first-team tablewww.karlbergsbk.se · 15 Sep 2026Ettan competition tableettanfotboll.se · 15 Sep 2026
Karlbergs BK are 9th in Ettan Norra with 28 points from 21 matches, and their away record is 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses.
In the most recent meeting on 16 May 2026, Karlbergs BK lost 1-3 at home to FC Jarfalla, but that was at Karlbergs BK's ground. The last time Karlbergs BK visited FC Jarfalla was on 17 September 2023, a 1-1 draw. Before that, on 17 October 2021, Karlbergs BK won 3-1 at FC Jarfalla. So Karlbergs BK have not lost at FC Jarfalla in their last two visits, winning one and drawing one. This suggests they can handle the away fixture, though the sample is small and from different divisions.
- Karlbergs BK won 3-1 at FC Jarfalla on 17 October 2021.
- Karlbergs BK drew 1-1 at FC Jarfalla on 17 September 2023.
- The most recent meeting was on 16 May 2026, when FC Jarfalla won 3-1 at Karlbergs BK.
Karlbergs BK wide forward Milian Jansson is available through the end of the season.
Jansson adds a quick wide option with one-versus-one ability and running in behind. L. Sietsema has started in that position in three of the four recent fixtures with available lineups when Jansson did not start, so Jansson's availability gives Karlbergs another attacking selection choice.
- Karlbergs BK confirmed a loan agreement for wide forward Milian Jansson for the rest of the season.
- Karlbergs sporting director said the loan was intended to strengthen competition in attack and described Jansson as quick, skilled one-versus-one and a threat in behind.
- Djurgården list Jansson as loaned to Karlbergs BK until 31 December 2026.
- L. Sietsema started in the same position in 3 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Milian Jansson did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 23:43 · Europe/BucharestKarlbergs BK: loan signing of Milian Janssonwww.karlbergsbk.se · 30 Aug 2026Djurgården player profile: Milian Janssonwww.dif.se · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's superior away form and FC Jarfalla's dreadful home record and current losing streak make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Karlbergs BK away record: 4W 2D 5L, 17 goals scored, 16 conceded in 11 away matches
- FC Jarfalla home record: 2W 0D 8L, 9 goals scored, 26 conceded in 10 home matches
- FC Jarfalla last 5 form: LLLLL, 2 goals scored, 14 conceded
- Karlbergs BK last 5 form: WLDLW, 5 goals scored, 6 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKarlbergs BKEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given FC Jarfalla's poor home form and Karlbergs BK's decent away resilience, the away side or draw is a very safe double chance.
- FC Jarfalla have lost 8 of 10 home matches this season
- Karlbergs BK have avoided defeat in 6 of 11 away matches
- FC Jarfalla have lost their last 5 matches in all competitions
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Karlbergs BKEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's stronger first-half record and FC Jarfalla's tendency to trail at the break give the away side a slight edge.
- Karlbergs BK lead at half-time in 53% of matches
- FC Jarfalla trail at half-time in 40% of matches
- Karlbergs BK average 0.9 first-half goals vs FC Jarfalla's 0.7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostKarlbergs BKEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of Karlbergs BK leading at half-time and winning, combined with FC Jarfalla's poor home form, supports this HT/FT outcome.
- Karlbergs BK have led at half-time and won in 3 of their last 5 matches
- FC Jarfalla have trailed at half-time and lost in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Karlbergs BK away form is stronger than FC Jarfalla home form
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostKarlbergs BK/Karlbergs BKEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' away/home splits show high total goal averages, and the recent head-to-head was high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- FC Jarfalla home matches average 3.5 total goals (9 scored, 26 conceded in 10 games)
- Karlbergs BK away matches average 3.0 total goals (17 scored, 16 conceded in 11 games)
- Last H2H meeting ended 4-1 to Karlbergs BK
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense while managing to score, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- FC Jarfalla have scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches
- Karlbergs BK have conceded in 8 of their last 11 away matches
- FC Jarfalla have conceded in 9 of their last 10 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal averages suggest a decent chance of at least two goals in the first half.
- FC Jarfalla average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match
- Karlbergs BK average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded per match
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.6 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is likely given both teams' tendencies to concede and score after the break.
- FC Jarfalla concede heavily in second halves, with 26 goals conceded at home overall
- Karlbergs BK score consistently away, with 17 goals in 11 away matches
- Recent matches show late goals for both teams
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's recent defensive solidity and FC Jarfalla's scoring struggles make an away clean sheet possible.
- Karlbergs BK have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
- FC Jarfalla have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- FC Jarfalla average only 0.9 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Jarfalla not to scoreEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jarfalla's home scoring output is very low, making under 1.5 home goals likely.
- FC Jarfalla average 0.9 goals per home match
- FC Jarfalla have scored 1 or fewer goals in 8 of 10 home matches
- Karlbergs BK concede 1.45 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Jarfalla under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's away scoring rate and FC Jarfalla's leaky home defense support over 1.5 away goals.
- Karlbergs BK average 1.55 goals per away match
- FC Jarfalla concede 2.6 goals per home match
- Karlbergs BK have scored 2+ goals in 6 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostKarlbergs BK over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's ability to win without conceding and FC Jarfalla's scoring woes make this a low-probability but plausible outcome.
- Karlbergs BK have won to nil in 3 of their last 5 matches
- FC Jarfalla have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- FC Jarfalla have been shut out in 3 home matches this season
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance25%